Subj : Biggest Crash Ever!
To : Lee Lofaso
From : Gerhard Strangar
Date : Mon Apr 20 2020 07:43 am
Am 20 Apr 20 01:28:23 schrob Lee Lofaso an Gerhard Strangar zum Thema
<Biggest Crash Ever!>
>>Now that's wild guessing, but we might see up to 80% infected, which
>>would be 6 billion people.
LL> The numbers are known in regards to the Spanish Flu.
LL> Based on the same numbers (adjusted for increased population)
LL> and time frame allows for a well-qualified educated guess.
Not really. How many people flew the flu around the world in 1918? With an
incubation time of two days, crossing the ocean in more than five is quite a
good protection.
>>Wen can "flatten the curve" one time and make it last longer, however,
>> people might then get SARS-Cov-19 and a future SARS-Cov-20 at the same
>> time.
LL> Ha! You just made the same mistake the US President's top advisor
LL> Kellyanne Conway made, thinking COVID-20 is the same as COVID-19.
LL> The number 19 is when the novel coronavirus was discovered, short
LL> for 2019. There is no COVID-20, as that would be another novel
LL> coronavirus in which a different vaccine would be needed.
That's what a tried to express using the word "future", yet another - so far
unknown - new variant. If "the experts" say that 70% aof the population get it,
that would be almost 60 million in Germany. If kept trying to keep it below
6,000 infections per day, it would take more than 27 years. Imagine the
SARS-CoV from 2002 and a "flatten the curve" until 2029. Or would it be 2045,
because of an additinal flattening of MERS-CoV and now 2060 due to the
additional SARS-CoV-2?
>>What are we going to do then, shut down the economy "twice as much"?
LL> With everybody dead I do not believe anybody will be worried about
LL> the economy.
SARS-CoV-1 killed 10% of the infected people, MERS-CoV killed 37%.
SARS-CoV-2 isn't anywhere close to that.
Tschoe mit Oe
Gerhard
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* Origin: (2:240/2188.575)
