Al Qaeda After The Death Of Bin Laden – The Future Of Jihadist Te... | |
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Al Qaeda After the Death of Bin Laden The Future of | |
Jihadist Terrorism | |
(Thomas Joscelyn, May 25, 2011) | |
Transcript available below | |
Watch his speaker playlist[1] | |
The death of Osama bin Laden will significantly affect | |
both sides in the war on terror. The most important | |
questions now are how will al Qaeda and its associated | |
movements respond to the death of their leader, and is | |
the United States safer or in more danger today? The | |
Westminster Institute brings together world-renowned | |
authorities and national security practitioners for a one- | |
day special event in Washington, D.C. Together they will | |
provide answers to these questions and also address the | |
broader questions of what impact bin Laden s death will | |
have on non-violent jihadists such as the Muslim | |
Brotherhood, and what strategies can the U.S. employ to | |
turn this battlefield win into a definitive victory. | |
About the speaker | |
Thomas Joscelyn is a senior fellow at the Foundation for | |
Defense of Democracies[2] and is senior editor of FDD | |
Long War Journal[3], a widely read publication dealing | |
with counterterrorism and related issues. Much of his | |
research focuses on how al-Qaeda and the Islamic State | |
(or ISIS, ISIL) operate around the globe. | |
Joscelyn has served as a trainer for the FBI s | |
Counterterrorism Division. Thomas has testified before | |
Congress on fourteen occasions, including before the | |
Senate Foreign Relations Committee, House Homeland | |
Security Committee, House Foreign Affairs Committee, | |
House Armed Services Committee, and House Judiciary | |
Committee. He was the senior counterterrorism adviser to | |
Mayor Giuliani during the 2008 presidential campaign. | |
Joscelyn has constructed dossiers for hundreds of | |
terrorists during the course of his work. The Daily Beast | |
has described him as one of the most trusted authorities | |
on the al-Qaeda network because of his encyclopedic | |
knowledge of terrorist biographies. In 2007, he published | |
a monograph titled, Iran s Proxy War Against America, | |
which details Iran s decades-long sponsorship of America | |
s terrorist enemies. In 2008, he completed an exhaustive | |
review of the Guantanamo Bay detainee population, | |
cataloging and analyzing thousands of pages of | |
declassified documents. | |
Joscelyn is also a frequent contributor to The Weekly | |
Standard. His work has been published by a variety of | |
other publications and cited by The Associated Press, | |
Reuters, The Washington Post, USA Today, Time, Foreign | |
Policy, and many others. He makes regular appearances on | |
television and radio programs. | |
Transcript | |
Thomas Joscelyn: | |
I am supposed to talk a little bit about the death of bin | |
Laden and sort of the future of jihad and Al Qaeda and | |
where things are going, and that may seem like a sort of | |
obvious topic to address, you know, given recent events | |
here, but I think of that night after Osama bin Laden was | |
killed, after the news broke that he had been killed in | |
Abbottabad, Pakistan. | |
I turned on CNN and I saw one of the guys who was | |
considered one of the leading thinkers on Al Qaeda, a guy | |
named Peter Bergen, who is CNN s counterterrorism | |
analyst. He said that the war was over, that is it, | |
terrorism is over, we do not have anything to worry about | |
anymore. That is it and, in fact, it is just that the | |
Americans need to get beyond the War on Terror. As if it | |
is something that we came up with, as if it is a | |
construct in our heads and not something that we are | |
actually fighting, you know. | |
So, I guess I would start by saying the war is, in fact, | |
not over for a lot of reasons. I think that the | |
ideological conflict has been greatly outlined by the | |
previous presenters here today and so I am not going to | |
touch so much on that, but so what I am going to talk | |
about is much more about the nitty gritty of the fight | |
and that starts with jihadist-sponsoring states. | |
Now, that may even seem like an obvious notation for | |
everybody. I mean, you know, of course there are states | |
that are involved in sponsoring terrorism and are | |
involved in terrorism but in fact, much of the analysis | |
that has proceeded here in the U.S. and in the West | |
starts with the assumption that states are not in fact | |
involved in sponsoring terrorism whether that be Al Qaeda | |
or its like-minded affiliates around the globe. | |
And since we have a Cold War-minded crowd here today, I | |
will start with a brief analogy. Back in the Cold War, | |
back in 1981 in fact, the Reagan Administration decided | |
it was going to confront Marxist and Leftist terrorism | |
and Secretary of State Alexander Haig came forward and | |
said that in fact, much of the terrorism that was on the | |
planet, Marxist and Leftist terrorism, was sponsored by | |
the Soviet Union. | |
And so, the Reagan Administration ordered up a National | |
Intelligence Estimate on Soviet-sponsored terrorism and | |
they kicked it over to the CIA s analysts and the CIA s | |
Soviet analysts came back and said, well, no, in fact, | |
the Soviets are not sponsoring terrorism. It is against | |
their interests to do so and they would never do this. | |
They would never be involved in sponsoring terrorism. | |
Well, the fight that ensued, a bureaucratic fight that | |
ensued, was quite legendary. In fact, Bob Gates, the | |
current Secretary of Defense, talks about this in his | |
book From the Shadows and I recommend anybody go out | |
there and read it because it is a pretty interesting | |
characterization, I would say, from Bob Gates, who is | |
ever the bureaucrat and sides with the bureaucrats to a | |
certain extent. | |
I think he still gets the facts right of what happened | |
and lo and behold, what happened was the Soviet analysts | |
were wrong and Bill Casey and the CIA leadership and | |
President Reagan were right. In fact, the Soviets were | |
deeply involved in sponsoring terrorism. In fact, not | |
only were the Soviets and their client states deeply | |
involved in sponsoring terrorism generally and broadly in | |
terms of training and so forth and ideologically, they | |
actually were arming and training terrorist groups in | |
Europe, in the Middle East, and elsewhere to attack us. | |
In fact, in Lebanon a Soviet-backed terrorist group was | |
actually tasked by the KGB to go out and kidnap the | |
deputy head of the CIA in Lebanon in the 1970s. | |
So I just want you to pause for a second here and think | |
about this. At the same time the Soviets are actually | |
sponsoring terrorism against the CIA directly, the CIA s | |
Soviet analysts are saying that the Soviets are not | |
sponsoring terrorism at all, okay? | |
That is the type of ideological, I would say, | |
intellectual blind-spot you are dealing with when it | |
comes to the analysis of terrorism. Now, you may be | |
wondering, what does that have to do with today? What | |
does that have to do with Al Qaeda and Islamist | |
terrorism? Well, it turns out that in the 1990s our | |
analysts, as brilliant as they are, made the same | |
assumption again. They decided that Islamist terrorism, | |
jihad, was not state sponsored. And in fact, if you go to | |
the 9/11 Commission Report, you will see in the 9/11 | |
Commission it specifically describes Al Qaeda as | |
stateless and as a new terrorism without any state | |
backers. | |
Now, if you go through the 9/11 Commission Report | |
carefully as I have many, many times since 2004 when it | |
came out, you will realize this is logically incoherent. | |
When you actually look at the facts of what is reported | |
in the 9/11 Commission Report. | |
Now, I will start with a very simple, basic overview of | |
just safe haven for Al Qaeda. It starts in the early | |
1990s when bin Laden and Al Qaeda needed a place to live | |
and they turned to Sudan, which at the time was run by a | |
guy named Hasan al-Turabi, a leading member of the | |
international Muslim Brotherhood. | |
And al-Turabi was a radical ideologue, a real dangerous | |
thinker, if you actually get into how he thinks and how | |
he viewed the world, it is really, really troubling. And | |
al-Turabi did not see the world as, you know, divided | |
between the Muslim world even, divided between Sunnis and | |
Shiites. He saw the world as divided between Muslims and | |
non-Muslims and so what he did with the Sudan is he | |
turned it basically into this place for cross | |
fertilization of all of these different terrorist groups | |
and ideologues that come together and terrorist groups | |
that come together, including Al Qaeda, and bin Laden. | |
You know, Osama bin Laden forged a lot of lasting | |
relationships there in Sudan. So, his safe haven in Sudan | |
as documented by the 9/11 Commission was a crucially | |
important part in Al Qaeda s development. Well, wait a | |
minute, that is one state, right? So we have got one | |
state where now we have one state that actually plays a | |
role in sponsoring Al Qaeda. | |
Well, in the mid-1990s Al Qaeda s safe haven in Sudan | |
became troubled, I would say, under immense international | |
pressure. And so, Sudan politely asked bin Laden to | |
leave, basically, with Al Qaeda and what they did was | |
they relocated to South Asia. | |
Now, going to the 9/11 Commission Report, what we find is | |
the Pakistani military and intelligence establishment had | |
long had a relationship with bin Laden and Al Qaeda going | |
back to the 1980s when sort of proto-Al Qaeda was first | |
getting going. The military-intelligence establishment in | |
Pakistan likely knew he was coming the 9/11 Commission | |
found and actually took steps to introduce him to the | |
Taliban in Afghanistan to make sure he would have a safe | |
haven in Afghanistan. Well, that is two states now that | |
are playing a role in sponsoring Al Qaeda because now you | |
had the Pakistani military-intelligence establishment, | |
making sure that Al Qaeda s leadership can relocate to | |
Afghanistan. | |
Now, of course, they get to Afghanistan and what happens | |
is that Al Qaeda forges this lasting relationship with | |
the Taliban. There is a lot of nonsense out there about | |
the Taliban can be split from Al Qaeda. I will not get | |
into that today because that is a whole other session, | |
but that is just not true. But here you have a third | |
state, right? You have the Taliban in Afghanistan now, | |
which is sponsoring or working with Al Qaeda. | |
So what does the paradigm stateless mean? Well, to me it | |
is meaningless. It does not mean anything. It basically | |
is trying to skirt around the fact that you have a number | |
of bad actors that are really involved in sponsoring, | |
harboring, training, at a variety of levels of assistance | |
and support for Al Qaeda and its affiliates. | |
As you go through that what you realize when you start to | |
accept the fact that states are involved in this fight, | |
you start to see things a little differently. And I will | |
give you a great example. If you look at the fight in | |
Afghanistan right now, our military leaders and I would | |
say our political leadership goes to great lengths to | |
deny the fact that Pakistan and Iran are essentially | |
waging proxy wars against American troops in Afghanistan. | |
They occasionally will admit that yes, Iran is doing bad | |
things and Pakistan is doing bad things, but they do not | |
really want to get into the real war that is unfolding. | |
There is a lot that could be said about this, but one of | |
the interesting sources that has come forward to really | |
confirm the role of Pakistan and Iran are playing in | |
Afghanistan, waging war against our troops are all of | |
these leaked documents from WikiLeaks, including the | |
Guantanamo Threat Assessments, State Department cables, | |
and ISAF threat reports. Those are the three categories | |
of documents that have been released by WikiLeaks. | |
Now, I guarantee you when Julian Assange set forth to | |
leak these documents, that he did not think he was going | |
to be talking about state-sponsored terrorism or he was | |
going to be documenting what America s enemies are up to, | |
but that is, in fact, what he has done. And if you go | |
through these documents in great detail, you find a lot | |
of troubling revelations. | |
You find, for example, as I did that back in 2002 that | |
the Pakistani ISI, the same group that introduced the | |
Taliban to bin Laden back in the mid-1990s has actually | |
been working very heavily with all of the different | |
insurgency groups in Afghanistan, trying to bring them | |
together and coordinate their attacks against Americans | |
and even civilians. | |
In one case (this is really troubling from my | |
perspective), they actually trained the Taliban to go | |
after civilian workers in Afghanistan, including Red | |
Cross workers. And the Pakistani military officers | |
trained the Taliban to go into Afghanistan, kidnap and | |
murder Red Cross workers, which they did. And in fact, | |
they were relaying instructions for once this poor victim | |
was kidnapped, the Taliban actually got on their phones | |
and relayed to get instructions from in Pakistan for what | |
to do with them. The order came from the Pakistani- | |
supported Taliban leaders in Pakistan to kill him. Well, | |
that is state sponsorship, is it not? I mean that is a | |
state directly sponsoring jihadist terrorism. | |
And it gets worse than that. I think if you go across the | |
board, you can actually see that Pakistan has basically | |
become the home for all three of the chief insurgency | |
groups that we are fighting in Afghanistan today. You | |
have Gulbuddin Hekmatyar s group, which is known as the | |
HeI. You have Mullah Omar s Taliban, which, by the way, | |
is located in Quetta. In fact, his group is called the | |
Quetta Shura Taliban. Okay, hello, it is named after a | |
Pakistani city. We all know where he is operating. The | |
Pakistanis know where he is operating. They are | |
protecting him. | |
The Haqqani network, which is the third main insurgency | |
group, long-time clients of the Pakistani military | |
intelligence establishment. In fact, the head of the | |
Pakistani military has repeatedly tried to negotiate a | |
power-sharing agreement for Siraj Haqqani, the head of | |
the Haqqani Network in Afghanistan. That is how much they | |
are under the patronage of the Pakistanis. | |
It is indisputable that these three groups are all | |
originally Pakistani proxies. It is indisputable that | |
they all receive support from Pakistan to this day. In | |
fact, I could list hundreds of examples of how that is | |
true. But there is something else that you should know | |
about all three of them, which is that they are all | |
deeply allied with Al Qaeda. | |
Al Qaeda is not just this group that is stateless as the | |
9/11 Commission found, but actually has both direct state- | |
backers but also indirect state backing through the | |
groups it has allied itself with, which are in turn state- | |
backed. And so I come back to what Peter Bergen said | |
about the War on Terror is over and you are going to see | |
a lot of people thinking along those lines, but I come | |
back to where Osama bin Laden was killed, which is | |
basically right near Pakistan s version of West Point in | |
Abbottabad, Pakistan. | |
Now, if you think that nobody in the Pakistan military | |
intelligence establishment knew that he was there, I | |
would say I could take you up to New York and there is a | |
bridge I would like to sell you, you know, because it is | |
just not true. I mean, obviously, you know, in fact, the | |
Obama administration went to great lengths to keep the | |
operation from the Pakistani military intelligence | |
establishment because it was so worried about this | |
information leaking and the raid being stopped [before it | |
could begin]. | |
It turns out, again turning back to 9/11 Commission, that | |
is not new. In fact, when the Clinton administration | |
tried to kill Bin Laden back in 1998, they decided | |
against it. Why? Because they would have to tell the | |
Pakistanis that they were coming, and they knew the | |
Pakistanis would tip him off, right? Well, is that not | |
state sponsorship, you know? So, where are we when we | |
talk about stateless, I have no idea at this point. I | |
mean I look at what has been said about Al Qaeda and its | |
affiliates being stateless, and just the basic facts of | |
how it operates, where it receives safe haven undermine | |
that whole mantra. | |
But I would like to turn now to Iran a little bit, and | |
this is a topic which I was actually at AIPAC on Monday, | |
discussing, and I was supposed to have a debate, but my | |
debate partner dropped out, unfortunately, that would | |
have been fun. But Iran has been one of the more | |
misunderstood parties in all this, and the big | |
misunderstanding from Iran s perspective, from the | |
perspective of people who study Iran is that somehow | |
because it is Shiite that it cannot possibly work with | |
Sunnis, okay, and that the Iranians could not possibly | |
work with Sunnis because of these ideological and | |
theological differences preclude them from working | |
together. | |
Well, [there are] a lot of things I can say about that, | |
but I will start with the 9/11 Commission Report. okay? | |
And I would encourage you to go home and if you have a | |
copy of the 9/11 Commission Report, then you can, if you | |
want to, take down these page number so you can check me, | |
okay? It is pages 61, 68, 128, 240, and 241, and after | |
reading those pages I want to ask you a question, Does | |
Iran sponsor Al-Qaeda or not? Because I think the answer | |
is unequivocally, yes, it does, and it does in very | |
important and very troubling ways. But so how could that | |
be right? I mean you know Iran is Shiite, and Al-Qaeda is | |
Sunni, and they have all these supposed differences. | |
Well, the bottom line is that a lot of times tactical | |
necessity trumps those ideological or theological | |
concerns. | |
And you know, I think it was Steve in here earlier had a | |
picture of Sayyid Qutb throughout his presentation a | |
number of times. And Sayyid Qutb is in fact the big | |
Muslim Brotherhood ideologue who influenced and really | |
was the forefather of Al-Qaeda, really got Al Qaeda s | |
thinking, put a place for it in the world. Well, | |
Ayatollah Khomeini, who leads the current Iranian | |
revolution actually, this is Khamenei now, not Khomeini. | |
Khamenei, who is the current spiritual leader of Iran, | |
actually translated Qutb s words from the Arabic into | |
Persian, okay? He sat down and did it, multiple volumes | |
of it, so here is the intellectual forefather of al- | |
Qaeda, and the current head of Iran actually took the | |
time to translate his words into Persian from the Arabic | |
in order to spread his word throughout Iran. In fact, it | |
is still some of the most widely read volumes in the | |
clerical establishment in Iran today. | |
So, this idea that Sunnis and Shiites cannot cooperate | |
really is, I would say, a pseudo intellectual | |
understanding of the world. It is sort of this veneer | |
people like to pretend they actually understand the | |
Middle East when that is really just not an understanding | |
at all, and you know, again, even if you look at Israel | |
and Israel s enemies today, Hamas has the same | |
ideological roots as Al Qaeda does. Well, it is radical | |
Sunni. Who is its chief state backer? Iran. | |
Okay, now why is it so important? | |
Well, if you go and you check those pages from the 9/11 | |
Commission Report, you will find some troubling things, | |
and one of things you will find is that in the 1990s when | |
bin Laden was in the Sudan, he was really struggling to | |
get Al Qaeda going. He wanted to show how Al Qaeda could | |
be, you know, some of this international vanguard for | |
jihadists around the globe. He wanted to really inspire | |
them to action, and so they needed a spectacular event. | |
They needed something that would show, you know, just how | |
powerful Al Qaeda had become. | |
And Bin Laden got the idea, this is going back to the | |
early 1990s now, that in fact he should reach out to Iran | |
and its chief terrorist proxy Hezbollah, for training. | |
And he said, You know, one of the things that Iran did | |
back in the early 1980s, in 1983 in Lebanon, was | |
basically forced the American withdrawal from Lebanon | |
with an attack on the Marine barracks there. It killed | |
241 Marines. And Bin Laden looked at that and said, ah, | |
well, America is a paper tiger, they will retreat if we | |
hit them, and the way I can show people that we can do | |
this is if we learn how to do this and Al Qaeda does this | |
to the Americans again. | |
So, he reaches out to Iran and Hezbollah, and he says | |
show me how to do this, show my organization how to do | |
this. Now, this, again, is all according the 9/11 | |
Commission Report on the pages I cited for you, okay? | |
Iran and Hezbollah agreed, okay, and they took the | |
military committee members of Al-Qaeda, they took a | |
number of different tactical experts from Al-Qaeda into | |
Lebanon and Iran, and showed them how to do it. They | |
showed them how to attack embassies, how to build suicide | |
truck bombs, how to do that type of thing. | |
Well, the result was the 1998 embassy bombings in Kenya | |
and Tanzania, okay? As you go through that operation [you | |
find that] that was a mirror image of what Hezbollah and | |
Iran did in the early 1980s in Lebanon. They attacked | |
diplomatic facilities with suicide truck bombs, there | |
were simultaneous attacks that they were coordinating | |
even though there were hundreds of miles away, the way | |
the truck bombs were designed, the whole nine yards. | |
So, you go forward to 1998, and after the embassies are | |
bombed, the Clinton administration sits down and says, | |
well, now we have to really get tough with Al-Qaeda, and | |
we are going to issue an indictment, so that is basically | |
what they did, they issued an indictment. And you look at | |
the indictment of Al-Qaeda, and interestingly enough, in | |
the indictment of Al-Qaeda they recognize state | |
sponsorship. They say that Al Qaeda has forged these | |
relationships with the Sudan, that is where they were | |
headquartered in the early 1990s, but also with Iran and | |
Hezbollah to act against their common enemies. | |
And then you flashforward to October of 2000 when a key | |
Osama bin Laden lieutenant decides to agree to a plea | |
deal in a US Court, actually, in the Southern District of | |
Manhattan. His name is Zawi Muhammad. In his plea deal he | |
agreed. He says, yes, I was the one was personally | |
responsible for setting up the meetings between Hezbollah | |
and Iran on the one hand, and Al Qaeda and Osama bin | |
Laden on the other. He agrees to this. | |
And then, in early 2001, there is a trial, and at that | |
trial several witnesses come forward that are all relied | |
upon by the Clinton administration and prosecutors, and | |
they all say, up and down, that Iran and Hezbollah | |
trained Al-Qaeda to do this. And that is how Al Qaeda | |
acquired what the 9/11 Commission later deemed the quote- | |
unquote, tactical expertise to do the embassy bombings. | |
Now, think about it for a second. This is Al Qaeda s most | |
spectacular attack prior to 9/11. This is the thing that | |
brings them into the fore. Most people had not even heard | |
of Al-Qaeda before the August 1998 Embassy Bombings. The | |
whole point of them was that you would hear about them so | |
you know who they were, that they could kill on a mass | |
scale, and yet the 9/11 Commission, Clinton | |
administration prosecutors, you know, court documents, | |
the terrorists themselves, a number of different parties | |
would come forward and tell you that Iran and Hezbollah | |
actually showed Al Qaeda how to do this. | |
Well, how can the 9/11 Commission in the same document | |
that says that Al Qaeda is stateless include this | |
information on the pages I gave you? It just does not | |
make any sense, right? It is just logically incoherent. | |
Well, now, the last two page numbers I came to are 240, | |
241 I gave you. I suggest you read those very carefully. | |
I have many times because it is actually very | |
interesting. You will see that these are two pages that | |
were basically written to track the movements of the | |
hijackers for 9/11, and they are tracking their travels, | |
and you will see seven instances in those two pages where | |
senior Hezbollah operatives and officials are cited, | |
seven on two pages, okay? | |
And this information actually did not come to the 9/11 | |
Commission until one week before the final report was | |
due, and what happens is the commissioners and all their | |
staffers come forward and they say, wow, you know, this | |
is really troubling, look at this, you know. They found a | |
box of evidence from the NSA, including intercepts and | |
other information that showed that Hezbollah officials | |
were tied to all the hijackers. | |
And the staffers, to their credit, said we have to put | |
something in the commission s report for this, and they | |
said we have to have to do this really quick because, you | |
know, we cannot go to press and publish this report and | |
not explicitly raise the troubling questions about Iran | |
and Hezbollah s role in all this. And so, they did, so | |
240 and 241 are the pages where they put it in. And you | |
will see at the end of page 241 when they get to the end | |
of the section that it says we believe the U.S. | |
government should investigate this further. That is what | |
it says. | |
Well, I am here to tell you that investigation never | |
happened, okay? | |
So, years ago people made this assumption that Al Qaeda | |
was stateless, okay? There is ample evidence that it is | |
not stateless, that in fact, state backers work with it | |
and use it for [their] own purposes, right? And yet, | |
there is no will to actually investigate the state | |
backers of Al Qaeda even after the 911 Commission, the | |
official body that is commissioned to look at this, [the] | |
greatest attack, comes forward and says we should look | |
it, they still do not do it. | |
Well, last week there was a lawsuit in New York. The | |
Commission staffer s name is Janice Kephart, who actually | |
investigated the hijackers travels, that is what she was | |
tasked with. She filed an affidavit and she said you | |
should have been looking at this all along, and she put | |
in an affidavit and a lawsuit against Iran, saying that, | |
in fact, Iran at least provided material support by | |
providing safe haven and safe transit to the hijackers. | |
Okay, that is the minimum of what we know. Now, on that | |
lawsuit I think there is some good information and some | |
bad information, but I think her affidavit stands out as | |
something really important. | |
Well, now, wait a minute, you know, I keep harping on | |
this, but just think about this for a second, you know. I | |
will tell you right now, I have a lot of conversations | |
with people at DNI, DHS, CIA, DIA, three-letter acronyms, | |
any one you can pick, basically, I talk to people there, | |
okay, and they have this whole idea that Al Qaeda is | |
stateless and does not get any state support, and you | |
hear voluminous amounts of information that says | |
otherwise. Well, I want return to Afghanistan a little | |
bit because here is another great example of where state | |
sponsorship matters. | |
Prior to 9/11, Taliban and Iran were at each other s | |
throats. There is no doubt about that. In fact, in 1998, | |
1999 they were on the verge of war, and that is because | |
the Taliban executed a number of Shiite diplomats in | |
Mazar-e Sharif, which is in the northern part of | |
Afghanistan, and also had a brutal assault on hundreds of | |
other Shiites there. And the Iranians moved a bunch of | |
troops to the border, and Mullah Omar had a bunch of anti- | |
Iranian rhetoric, and the Iranians went back at Mullah | |
Omar, and just you know about verbal fighting, rhetorical | |
fighting. And they were on the verge of real fighting. | |
Well, after 9/11, something interesting happened, which | |
is the Iranians said they do not dislike the Taliban that | |
much anymore because we are there, we are in Afghanistan. | |
And so, there is a guy down in Guantanamo. One of the | |
things I study intently are the Guantanamo detainees and | |
sort of the profiles of who they are. This guy still down | |
there named Khairullah Khairkhah. He was the governor of | |
the Herat province for the Taliban, which is the | |
westernmost province, bordering on Iran. And he has | |
admitted that what he did after 9/11 was he setup the | |
meetings between the Taliban and Iran so that Iran could | |
give support to the Taliban in their war against the | |
U.S., and Iran pledged its assistance to the Taliban in | |
its war against the U.S. | |
What does that tell you about state sponsorship or state | |
backing, you know? It tells you that Iran is willing to | |
work with anybody against us because after all we are the | |
Big Satan and the Little Satan is Israel. This is what I | |
always tell people, you know. And Iran is basically | |
willing to work with anybody along those lines. And so | |
what you find in the documents down at Guantanamo and all | |
these other leaked documents that I talked about, the ISF | |
threat reports, and the ISF State Department cables, all | |
these leaked documents is that, in fact, Iran has | |
sponsored the Taliban all the years since then from late | |
2001 through and current. | |
Now, of course, the Pakistani ISI does as well in | |
Afghanistan, but here is the Taliban, which is our prime | |
enemy in Afghanistan in terms of what is launching | |
attacks against the civilian population, against American | |
forces, and it has got two very powerful state backers. | |
So, you know, here is the bottom line: if you are an | |
American soldier or American commander or a General on | |
the ground in Afghanistan, who is it you are fighting, | |
you know? Are you fighting these stateless actors who are | |
just coming your way or waging jihad against you or are | |
you fighting proxies of states who are killing American | |
soldiers? I will tell you that the evidence is just | |
overwhelming that, in fact, these are proxies of states, | |
they work with states. | |
Now, that does not mean necessarily that Al Qaeda or its | |
affiliates were wholly owned by states, that is not the | |
truth, okay, and it is not that they were totally under | |
direct control of states, that is not the truth either, | |
but states have worked with them to amplify their | |
capabilities and have worked with them to achieve common | |
objectives. That is the truth of the matter and there are | |
a lot of different states along those lines. | |
I will give you another quick example outside of South | |
Asia. If you go to Yemen, [there is] Al Qaeda in the | |
Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). We all know Al Qaeda in the | |
Arabian Peninsula is now, according to the Obama | |
administration, the greatest threat to us in terms of | |
terrorism, okay, in terms of Al Qaeda affiliates and Al | |
Qaeda itself because it is the one that is actually | |
taking the lead in launching attacks against us. | |
Well, again, here is a piece of information that comes | |
out from all the leaked documents. The number two player | |
in Yemen is a guy named General Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar. He | |
is a guy who brought President Saleh to power in 1978, | |
part of a tripartite agreement between, basically, Saleh | |
s backers, the Islamists, and the military. Now, Ali | |
Mohsen al-Ahmar is, in fact, according to State | |
Department cables and according to leaked intelligence | |
documents, a longtime supporter of jihadism and | |
terrorism, and, in fact, he is a longtime supporter of | |
Osama bin Laden. | |
This is the number two guy in the military or number one | |
guy in the military, but number two guy in all of Yemen, | |
who is a prime Al Qaeda backer. If you think about that | |
for a second, here is another state that, in fact or | |
elements there of that are sponsoring Al Qaeda, and, in | |
fact, General Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar actually founded or | |
helped found the original Al Qaeda affiliate in Yemen, | |
which was called the Islamic Army of Aden, which grew | |
into Al Qaeda s formal affiliate and helped launch the | |
USS Cole bombing among other things. | |
Oh, well, the USS Cole Bombing, the guy who executed that | |
is down at Guantanamo. Leaked documents on him show that, | |
in fact, he had a great relationship with the Yemeni | |
political security organization in the government of | |
Yemen, and worked closely with them, a guy named Nashiri, | |
and he had state backers there to help him do that. | |
Wait a minute now, now, we have tied another government, | |
another jihadist-sponsoring state to Al-Qaeda and an Al | |
Qaeda attack, so what is the common theme of all this? If | |
you had not guessed, it is that the stateless paradigm | |
does not make any sense and that we really needed a | |
different way of viewing these things and a different way | |
of talking about them, in order to try to understand the | |
enemy we fight. And that the war, as Peter Bergen said, | |
is not over, it is just beginning, I would say, in some | |
ways because these states have been basically held | |
unaccountable for all this stuff for all these years. | |
And so, all of the ideological problems that were talked | |
about earlier today I think are all hold, and I think it | |
was brilliantly outlined for you by the other presenters. | |
I would say the other half of that are the jihadist | |
states actually sponsored that ideology in various ways, | |
and they use it for their own gain. They manipulate those | |
who adhere to it, and they, basically, as far as our own | |
government is concerned, are not even in that game. | |
Thanks. | |
References | |
1. https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLQ2EfBuSgD7CkdTgIL6Y8SiIVuHE92Dq4 (l… | |
2. https://www.fdd.org/ (link) | |
3. https://www.longwarjournal.org/ (link) | |
Date Published: 2023-01-03 14:41:55 | |
Identifier: al-qaeda-after-the-death-of-bin-laden-the-future-of-jihadi… | |
Item Size: 210670844 | |
Language: eng | |
Media Type: movies | |
# Topics | |
Westminster Institute | |
Thomas Joscelyn | |
Al Qaeda | |
Bin Laden | |
Afghanistan | |
Yemen | |
Terrorism | |
AQAP | |
Taliban | |
Iran | |
Pakistan | |
Sudan | |
Haqqani | |
CIA | |
Foundation for Defense of Democracies | |
# Collections | |
fringe | |
loggedin | |
no-preview | |
deemphasize | |
# Uploaded by | |
@westminster_institute | |
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