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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS) 20100036784: Sources of Uncert...
by NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
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In the domain of predicting land surface fluxes, models
are used to bring data from large observation networks
and satellite remote sensing together to make predictions
about present and future states of the Earth.
Characterizing the uncertainty about such predictions is
a complex process and one that is not yet fully
understood. Uncertainty exists about initialization,
measurement and interpolation of input variables; model
parameters; model structure; and mixed spatial and
temporal supports. Multiple models or structures often
exist to describe the same processes. Uncertainty about
structure is currently addressed by running an ensemble
of different models and examining the distribution of
model outputs. To illustrate structural uncertainty, a
multi-model ensemble experiment we have been conducting
using the Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System
(TOPS) will be discussed. TOPS uses public versions of
process-based ecosystem models that use satellite-derived
inputs along with surface climate data and land surface
characterization to produce predictions of ecosystem
fluxes including gross and net primary production and net
ecosystem exchange. Using the TOPS framework, we have
explored the uncertainty arising from the application of
models with different assumptions, structures,
parameters, and variable definitions. With a small number
of models, this only begins to capture the range of
possible spatial fields of ecosystem fluxes. Few attempts
have been made to systematically address the components
of uncertainty in such a framework. We discuss the
characterization of uncertainty for this approach
including both quantifiable and poorly known aspects.
Date Published: 2016-11-05 16:28:14
Identifier: NASA_NTRS_Archive_20100036784
Item Size: 4683368
Language: english
Media Type: texts
# Topics
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS);...
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