DTIC ADA546683: Russia's Revival: Ambitions, Limitations, and Oppor... | |
by Defense Technical Information Center | |
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Independent Russia is approaching the start of its third | |
decade of post-Soviet existence. After the economic chaos | |
of the Boris Yeltsin decade and the recovery and | |
stabilization of the Vladimir Putin decade, Russia's | |
leaders have high ambitions for a return to great power | |
status in the years ahead. Their aspirations are | |
tempered, however, by the realities of Russia's social, | |
economic, and military shortcomings and vulnerabilities, | |
laid painfully bare by the stress test of the recent | |
global financial crisis. Looking ahead, some also | |
calculate that Russia will be increasingly challenged in | |
the Far East by a rising China and in the Middle East by | |
an Iran that aspires to regional hegemony. With energy | |
riches abundant enough to compensate for a multitude of | |
governance and managerial shortcomings, the Russian | |
economy will likely continue to grow in absolute terms in | |
the years ahead. Indeed, if Russia wants to remain a | |
mediocre power, it can do so without effort by not | |
changing its current behavior patterns. But with growing | |
corruption, business-stifling political controls, and | |
dependency on raw materials exports retarding the full | |
potential of Russia's growth, the country is facing the | |
prospect of decades of decline relative to other more | |
dynamic regional and world powers. Russia will retain its | |
nuclear weapons and permanent veto-empowered seat in the | |
United Nations Security Council. But Russia will likely | |
slip on many of the measures commonly used to assess | |
great power status: size and vitality of its population, | |
growth and vibrancy of its economy, and the ability of | |
its armed forces to project conventional military power | |
beyond its own borders. Russia will continue to be the | |
preponderant influence across a large swath of former | |
Soviet territory, but not beyond it. As a result, Moscow | |
is already seeking to strengthen Russia's ties with | |
Europe and the United States. The West is seen as crucial | |
to Russia's modernization and survival. | |
Date Published: 2018-08-19 23:53:27 | |
Identifier: DTIC_ADA546683 | |
Item Size: 32910858 | |
Language: english | |
Media Type: texts | |
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DTIC Archive; ; NATIONAL DEFENSE UNIV... | |
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