[1]Too rich, too comfortable: Why Japan is so resistant to change even

[1]Too rich, too comfortable: Why Japan is so resistant to change even
as disaster looms:

Note: I edited the question and answer section for clarity. See the
original article for higher fidelity.

Under the leadership of Shinzo Abe, it can feel as if Japan is
enjoying a revolution of sorts. Sweeping economic reforms are
finally shaking up its long-stagnant economy, while more foreign
workers are entering the country than ever before. [2]Soaring
tourist numbers and major sporting events, like this year's Rugby
World Cup and the 2020 Summer Olympics, are also keeping "Cool
Japan," well, cool.

Georgetown University Press

And all the while, Japan remains the world's third-largest economy
and one of its wealthiest countries; most people there want for
nothing, and some of the major societal schisms fracturing Western
societies [3]seem to be absent in Japan.

But none of these advantages will help the country tackle its
serious economic and demographic problems. That's according to Brad
Glosserman, a 27-year resident of Japan and author of a new book,
[4]Peak Japan: The End of Great Ambitions (Georgetown University
Press, 2019). Glosserman, now deputy director of the Center for
Rule-Making Strategies at Tama University in Tokyo, decided to write
the book after the earthquake and tsunami in northeastern Japan in
2011. He wondered whether those calamities would be enough to shake
Japan out of its comfortable, familiar stupor. His conclusion? Not
so much.

Glosserman spoke with Quartz ahead of his book's publication next
month. This interview has been lightly edited for clarity and
length.

Q: Your book says that we're now at Peak Japan, which is peculiar as
many people may associate that with the years of its economic boom
in the 1980s. Could you explain that?

A: In some ways you could say the peak years were in the 90s, but
for a more complete picture, the Japanese are a more well-rounded,
globally present country now. They've recovered in some ways and
risen again, having [5]restored political stability after a period
of time when they didn't have that. The economy, too, in some
respects has recovered. You have to credit Abe in changing the
trajectory of the country and giving it new impetus, and assuming a
new leadership role on the international stage, including
[6]resurrecting the CPTPP (Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement
for Trans-Pacific Partnership). He didn't solve Japan's problems,
but he's put the floor on some of these issues that other people
couldn't have done.

Q: Why isn't Abe's leadership enough to solve Japan's problems?

A: "We like what we have, we're a small 'c' conservative country."

The nature of the challenges facing Japan, and the need to reverse
those trends that everybody acknowledges are bad, requires
structural shifts. And the Japanese are not prepared to do that. "We
like what we have, we're a small 'c' conservative country, we are
not prepared to adopt a system that somebody else thinks we need
when we're not sure of it ourselves," they say. Japan is not like a
society trapped in the amber-of course it's changing and evolving,
but these are evolutionary, not revolutionary changes. What the
Japanese are is very Japanese. This is a country that believes in
law, resilience, stoicism, sucking it up and getting through it.
That, as one politician put it to me, is an absolute brake on change
in this country.

The fact is that Abe isn't representative of Japan. I do not see the
forces for sustained change in Japan.

Anecdotally in general in my circle, this is true. Few have strong
opinions one way or another about Abe, but none think he is
representative.

Q: What about Abe's stated commitment to issues such as female labor
participation? That's enjoyed [7]some success in lifting the number
of working women in Japan.

A: For those on the right who seek reforms to realize their dream of
a more powerful and influential Japan, they must balance their
impact on social norms and idealized social structures. With women,
the tension here is between what the government knows it has to do
to unleash their economic potential in society, but there's also the
notion of a woman's place in the household-I think Abe really does
believe in that. There's been all sorts of policy nudges that the
government could have done, but they haven't, like making childcare
widely available. That tension has resulted in begrudging changes
that are too late.

"They don't like working women… I don't like my choices. I haven't
gotten married because I feel that I would have to give up my
career."

Japanese women in response don't have fervent protests like the
suffragettes, but they do choose to act within their rights, like
choosing not to get married or have children, and taking jobs that
allows them to afford the lifestyle that they choose. One woman, an
associate professor at a university, told me: "[8]The LDP (Abe's
Liberal Democratic Party) really likes the traditional family
system. They don't like working women… I don't like my choices. I
haven't gotten married because I feel that I would have to give up
my career." Now not only is Japan's population shrinking, but
preferences may have permanently shifted, making it impossible for
fertility rates to reach or surpass replacement no matter what
incentives are offered.

My view on this is biased by working for an American company where
there are a lot of women throughout all levels of the organization -
and of course by having a penis. However, looking at the crowds of
"[9]freshman" employees flocking around Tokyo I don't see a government
discouraging working women. The bigger issues are around child care,
housing, and marriage in general.

Q: So where does that leave Japan in terms of tackling its
demographic crisis?

A: To me, it's extraordinarily revealing that the Japanese
government has made a conscious decision to give up [10]one-fifth of
its population, and say, "We're going to hold the line at 100
million people."

[I]t's extraordinarily revealing that the Japanese government has
made a conscious decision to give up one-fifth of its population.

Even in terms of [11]immigration, you have to look at what types of
jobs the government is looking to fill. What they really want is
[12]people like me-advanced, educated folks who will contribute high
value-add to society. Then there's the second group of
people-younger, low-skilled workers doing jobs that most of Japanese
don't want to do. But they don't want these people to come and stay.
They want them to contribute and then go home. The discussion over
allowing [13]"integrated resorts" (casino) (paywall) is similar.
It's classic Japanese, and based on the Singapore model. They want
foreigners to come in to this small area and spend all their money,
but charge locals a lot of money to get in. That way, you don't
worry about contamination and having to integrate them into the
larger society.

This is a succinct summary of what I've been saying.

Q: What about at the corporate level?

A: This isn't a country that forgives mistakes terribly well. So
what does that encourage you to do? Put your head down. That
discourages entrepreneurialism. So does the shrinking population.
Steady jobs at many companies are basically readily available for
you, so you just don't screw up and keep your head down and go along
with it. There isn't the same hunger and chip on your shoulder that
people have in [14]South Korea to prove themselves, and you don't
have the fearsome competitiveness of China.

Yes!

Don't get me wrong, the Japanese are incredibly smart and can be
very innovative, but they're very good at process innovation. When
they can see something in front of them and they've got a goal to
work towards. But they historically have had a problem with coming
up with the idea of what to do next themselves. Now, they're
[15]looking back to "Cool Japan" and traditional Japanese values and
marketing that aesthetic, for example.

Q: As Japan approaches a new era with the [16]abdication of emperor
Akihito, how do you think people will look back on his reign?

A: People will look back at the emperor and think that he was an
extraordinary man in so many ways. He was a voice of reason, a voice
of calm and serenity. He encapsulated the very best of Japan.
There's even speculation that he actually decided to abdicate as one
way of stopping the prime minister from getting his
[17]constitutional revision to Article 9.

I hope the Emperor instilled many of his core values in the Crown
Prince. If so, the future is bright. They make for a stark contrast
with the ruling family in the US.

Q: Going back to the starting point for your book-the tsunami and
Fukushima nuclear disaster of 2011-where do things stand with that
area today?

A: [I]n Japan, people are supposed to suffer in silence.

It's lagging. Nobody is happy with what's going on, and there were
extraordinary tensions in how Japan was dealing with Fukushima. In
some ways, people say that the disaster broke Japan apart. The idea
that all Japanese were connected to each other-a powerful trope in
modern Japan-was revealed as fiction. Young people felt little
connection to the people in Tohoku (northeast), even as politicians
kept talking about the idea of [18]kizuna (bonds). Meanwhile, people
in Tohoku feel as if they've been forgotten. Many are still living
in temporary homes, there are still no-go zones, and the reactors
are still radioactive. They'll never go back to their old lives. But
in Japan, people are supposed to suffer in silence.

The flip side of this is that they are not anchored in disaster, what I
call misery porn. Misery porn describes people not directly impacted by
a tragic event yet make it the cornerstone of their life.

Q: Why is it important for people to pay attention to Japan's
decline?

A: Anyone with an interest in Asian regional dynamics should be
concerned about a gap between expectations of Japan and what the
country can and will deliver. Unfulfilled expectations could lead to
a rupture in a crisis. My concern is that we, meaning Americans who
have a deep commitment to an important partnership, don't have our
expectations out of line.

(Via [19]Quartz)

I know what book I'll go hunting for before my abdication lengthened
Golden Week holiday.
__________________________________________________________________

My original entry is here: [20]Peak Japan. It posted Wed, 03 Apr 2019
08:41:30 +0000.
Filed under: Japan,

References

1. https://qz.com/1579719/peak-japan-why-japan-is-so-resistant-to-change-even-as-disaster-looms/
2. https://qz.com/1119432/stubbornly-resistant-to-change-japan-is-finally-giving-in-for-the-sake-of-tourism/
3. https://qz.com/965303/with-other-democracies-in-flames-the-japan-of-shinzo-abe-is-saying-no-thanks-to-change/
4. http://press.georgetown.edu/book/georgetown/peak-japan
5. https://qz.com/1106502/japan-election-results-with-this-win-shinzo-abe-is-closer-to-becoming-his-countrys-longest-serving-leader/
6. https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2018/02/27/cptpp-a-boost-for-japans-regional-trade-leadership/
7. https://qz.com/1118211/the-success-of-womenomics-in-japan-masks-its-growing-gender-gap/
8. https://qz.com/1290977/sexist-comments-about-metoo-show-japanese-politicians-are-stuck-in-the-dark-ages/
9. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/life/2018/04/02/language/company-freshmans-sharp-learning-curve/
10. https://qz.com/1507590/japans-population-decline-reached-a-new-record-in-2018/
11. https://qz.com/1487291/japan-is-close-to-passing-immigration-reform-for-foreign-workers/
12. https://qz.com/1127891/moving-to-japan-do-you-have-the-points-to-qualify-as-a-resident/
13. https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Companies/Las-Vegas-casino-leader-says-Japanese-market-will-surpass-Singapore-will-be-patient-until-the-casino-law-passes-in-Japan
14. https://qz.com/805909/after-20-years-of-studying-and-exams-even-south-koreas-smartest-graduates-are-struggling-to-find-a-job/
15. https://www.cj-fund.co.jp/en/
16. https://qz.com/1584358/the-reign-of-japans-new-emperor-naruhito-will-be-called-reiwa/
17. https://qz.com/972594/japans-antiwar-constitution-marks-its-70th-birthday-under-the-shadow-of-north-korea/
18. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-16321999
19. https://cms.qz.com/feed/
20. https://www.prjorgensen.com/?p=2698