[1]The Fate of the World Order Rests on Tokyo's Shoulders:

    It is no secret that the liberal international order is in danger.
    Since the election of U.S. President Donald Trump in 2016, it has
    been clear that the United States is prepared to withdraw the
    military, economic, and political leadership that once underpinned
    the system. But there are still countries out there striving to keep
    it from crumbling. One of the most important is Japan.

    To be sure, no single country can replace the United States. Rather,
    there will need to be several. It will be a "[2]multiplex world," as
    the American University professor Amitav Acharya has described it,
    where power and leadership are dispersed among a group of powers
    alongside other nonstate actors, including multilateral bodies,
    corporations, and social movements.

    In such a system, regional actors will take on the major leadership
    roles. The European Union and Germany are plausible contenders in
    Europe. The same could be true of South Africa in sub-Saharan Africa
    and perhaps Argentina or Brazil in South America. But what about the
    Indo-Pacific region?

    India is an unlikely candidate. Its own development challenges will
    distract it from exerting much power beyond South Asia. And although
    the Association of Southeast Asian Nations has a key role to play in
    managing security in Southeast Asia, it is unlikely to have any
    capacity to manage the international order in the wider Indo-Pacific
    region. Despite being an ardent supporter of many elements of the
    order, moreover, South Korea has proved too preoccupied with events
    on the Korean Peninsula to do much elsewhere. Finally, although
    China's sheer size makes it seem like a natural leader, its human
    rights abuses, flagrant violations of international law, coercion of
    neighbors, and attempts to build its own regional architecture make
    the country one of the world's largest threats to the liberal order.

    That leaves Japan, a status quo power par excellence. Tokyo is
    highly satisfied with the current order because it has benefited the
    country greatly, ensuring the peace and stability Japan needed to
    recover and prosper after World War II. The various international
    organizations Japan has been able to join, moreover, have given it a
    louder voice and role in shaping international norms than it
    otherwise would have had. Tokyo has, in turn, built its
    international agenda almost solely around upholding and
    strengthening the liberal international order.

    For decades, Japan has been a leading contributor of money and
    personnel to the United Nations, Office of the U.N. High
    Commissioner for Refugees, World Trade Organization, the
    International Monetary Fund, and the Asian Development Bank.

    Meanwhile, not only does Japan proactively cooperate with
    international legal organizations such as the International Court of
    Justice (ICJ) and the International Criminal Court, but prominent
    Japanese legal scholars have long served as justices on the ICJ-a
    testament to the importance the country places on the rule of law.
    In fact, it was one of the first countries to recognize the ICJ's
    rulings as compulsory.

    The country has also been a fervent advocate for human rights and
    freedom of navigation. And as a free trade supporter, Japan stepped
    up after Trump withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership to revamp
    the initiative as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for
    Trans-Pacific Partnership.

    Under the current prime minister, Shinzo Abe, Japan's role in
    supporting the international order has been particularly notable. In
    2016, Abe launched the "[3]proactive contribution to peace"
    framework, an effort to push Japan to play a larger role in securing
    peace, stability, and prosperity. It was part of his broader [4]Free
    and Open Indo-Pacific strategy, which the Trump administration later
    endorsed and which places more of the burden on Japan for protecting
    freedom, the rule of law, and market economies in the region.

    The time may be right for Abe to go further. He was recently
    [5]re-elected as the head of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party,
    which means he could remain prime minister until 2021. He could use
    that time to focus on strengthening partnerships in the Indo-Pacific
    region, where his country enjoys a relatively good reputation. Abe
    could signal that he is willing to allow others to lean on Japan to
    hold up the rules-based order. Japanese leadership might even entail
    dispatching more Japanese troops in noncombat roles to address
    threats to the international order. In addition to continuing to
    contribute actively to humanitarian assistance and disaster
    responses, Japan could be an active participant-even leader-in
    U.N.-mandated peacekeeping operations and responses to epidemics.

    This is not to suggest that Japan needs to change its
    [6]constitutional restraints on the use of force by its military or
    that Japan should take actions that run it afoul of the United
    States. Nor does regional leadership mean that Japan can ignore its
    own domestic challenges, namely demographic decline and ballooning
    debt. Rather, Japanese policymakers might simply consider that it is
    time for their country to fully embrace its role as a noncombat
    civilian power and become the predominant regional pillar of the
    international order. That would mean signaling a willingness to
    organize and lead groupings of like-minded states to reinforce the
    existing order across the Indo-Pacific region. Increasingly, Japan
    could even begin to shape the order around its own vision, although
    that vision would not likely stray too far from what the current
    order looks like. Strengthening the rule of law, freedom of
    navigation and free trade would no doubt remain Japan's primary
    focus.

    Although Japan will never be able to exert global leadership in a
    way comparable to the United States, it might well decide to provide
    critical leadership to sustain key elements of the international
    order in the Indo-Pacific region. It has the power to do so:
    economically, diplomatically, technologically, ideologically, and
    even in noncombat military power. Japan's leadership would provide
    the critical support the order needs. And in doing so, Japan could
    very well shore up the confidence of those in other regions that
    want to do the same. The choice is Japan's to make, but the
    consequences of the decision will be felt throughout the
    Indo-Pacific region and beyond.

  (Via [7]Foreign Policy)

  With the United States abdicating (temporarily, I hope) its diplomatic
  and military role, Japan as the or a lead of a community of nations
  stepping into the gap is an intriguing idea.
  Also on:

  [8]Twitter
    __________________________________________________________________

  My original entry is here: [9]The Fate of the World Order Rests on
  Tokyo's Shoulders. It posted Tue, 13 Nov 2018 14:59:03 +0000.
  Filed under: Japan,

References

  1. https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/10/30/the-fate-of-the-world-order-rests-on-tokyos-shoulders/
  2. https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/ethics-and-international-affairs/article/after-liberal-hegemony-the-advent-of-a-multiplex-world-order/DBD581C139022B1745154175D2BEC639
  3. https://www.mofa.go.jp/fp/nsp/page1we_000079.html
  4. https://www.mofa.go.jp/afr/af2/page4e_000496.html
  5. https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2018/09/d66f5f2fa1db-urgent-abe-re-elected-as-ldp-president-secures-3rd-consecutive-term.html
  6. https://warontherocks.com/2018/03/revising-japans-peace-constitution-much-ado-about-nothing/
  7. http://foreignpolicy.com/feed/
  8. https://twitter.com/prjorgensen/status/1062359978672091136
  9. https://www.prjorgensen.com/?p=2271