[1]Facebook Lenses:
Back when Stratechery started I wrote in [2]the very first post that
one of the topics I looked forward to exploring was "Why Wall Street
is not completely insane"; I was thinking at the time about Apple, a
company that, especially at that time, was regularly posting
eye-popping revenue and profit numbers that did not necessarily lead
to corresponding increases in the stock price, much to the
consternation of Apple shareholders. The underlying point should be
an obvious one: a stock price is about future earnings, not already
realized ones; that the iPhone maker had just had a great quarter
was an important signal about the future, but not a determinant
factor, and that those pointing to the past to complain about a
price predicated on the future were missing the point.
Of course that is exactly what I did in that tweet.
(Via [3]Stratechery by Ben Thompson)
Ben has a long write-up on the Facebook financial news and how one can
look at the data:
To be clear, I agreed with the Apple-investor sentiment all along:
several of my early articles - [4]Apple the Black Swan, [5]Two
Bears, and especially [6]What Clayton Christensen Got Wrong - were
about making the case that Apple's business was far more sustainable
with much deeper moats than most people realized, and it was that
sustainability and defensibility that mattered more than any one
quarter's results.
The question is if a similar case can be made for Facebook:
certainly my tweet taken literally was naive for the exact reasons
those Apple investor complaints missed the point five years ago;
what about the sentiment, though? Just how good of a business is
Facebook?
As with many such things, it all depends on what lens you use to
examine the question.
He looks at Facebook using several different "lenses": finances,
products, ad infrastructure, multiplying moats, and reason for being
(Facebook's Raison D'être). While I follow his various lines of
thinking, I think Ben spends a little too much effort on linking back
to things he already said and not enough on expanding upon those
thoughts. This is most apparent in his moats lens which needs fleshing
out (it feels half-baked).
As it stands it's a useful exercise in understanding a company's
financial and business drivers. Obviously, any discussion of Facebook
will include security and privacy (and GDPR and …). Too often
professionals in our industry fail to consider these things fully which
leads us to the cyber security startup VC and blockchain bubbles we're
in.
Also on:
[7]Twitter
__________________________________________________________________
My original entry is here: [8]Facebook Lenses ←. It posted Tue, 31 Jul
2018 14:27:03 +0000.
Filed under: tech,
References
1.
https://stratechery.com/2018/facebook-lenses/
2.
https://stratechery.com/2013/welcome-to-stratechery/
3.
https://stratechery.com/
4.
https://stratechery.com/2013/apple-the-black-swan/
5.
https://stratechery.com/2013/two-bears/
6.
https://stratechery.com/2013/clayton-christensen-got-wrong/
7.
https://twitter.com/TokyoGringo/status/1024301306851287040
8.
https://www.prjorgensen.com/?p=1360