THE DECLINE EFFECT
(Posted 2011-01-20 20:41:45 by ArchPaladin)
Yet another excellent article [
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2010/12/13/101213fa_fact_lehrer ]
[newyorker.com] - this one discussing some meta-analyses on scientific
studies.
For those who don't want to read it: the basic premise is that due to
various factors, many if not all scientific studies showing some new
conclusion often over-report the significance of the data used to found
that conclusion, and that this over-reporting only comes out gradually over
time and repeated studies (hence the name of 'the decline effect'). One of
the examples give in the article is that an entire generation of
antipsychotic medications were initially published as being highly
effective, but over time the significance of their effect has been shown to
be effectively no better than the drugs they were replacing.
The major problem with this finding is that the conclusions which end up
being shown to be false never make it out of the public consciousness. So
public perception ends up building on incorrect information that was
previously backed by research.
I love seeing people poke holes in the scientific process.
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