I've seen the same types of predictions coming out of the USA in
those expensive investing prognosticators. Big predictions come
out at the beginning of the year. Firms offer their investment
strategies for the upcoming year. You need to look at their past
year-start predictive abilities and check their accuracy. Not
all economists are good at forecasting. Most are always wrong.
== The investment community is still very primitive in its
emotional intelligence. Basic psychology didn't even BEGIN to
enter the calculations until I t*think* the mid 1990s or so and
even then, it was more "animal" than human. Adam Smith's
rational man still lives on, , a useful fiction but with the
same old limitations. == I studied investing heavily from around
1999-2002 and got really into it. Found my style, used it (DRIP
- long term [theoretically]) and did well right through the ups
and downs. I made my choices, drew from it, did well. My style
was contrary. (contrarian? I think that's the name) they give
for it. Look at all of the advice, _even_ the contrarian advice,
and go opposite. Find the strong companies that will survive the
to-and-fro in the longer term. But mostly index investing. Had I
no other advice, stick to indexes and don't invest more than you
can afford to lose. ==
