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Economy actually doing well. Why do voters say it’s the top issue? [1]

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Date: 2024-09-30 11:00:00+00:00

Reading Time: 3 minutes

“It’s the economy, stupid!” has once again become the axiomatic explanation for why this year’s presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump remains so close.

There’s certainly a stupor that sets in when trying to explain why the economy is the No. 1 issue for voters at a time when most indicators — low unemployment, steady job growth, easing inflation, rising wages, declining gas prices, record stock market — suggest the economy is actually doing pretty well.

But what if it’s not the economy? What if it’s something else? What if when some voters say it’s the economy, they’re actually just expressing a partisan viewpoint?

That’s what a close look at Wisconsin polling data from the Marquette University Law School suggests is happening.

The compilation of data from 40 Marquette polls going back to 2016 shows partisans, particularly Republicans, expressing more negative or positive views about their own economic situation depending on who’s in the White House.

The six most recent polls from 2023 and 2024 also show Republicans expressing more pessimism about their economic situation than independents and Democrats with similar incomes.

Both factors may help explain why public polling reflects so much consternation about an otherwise healthy economy.

“The economy matters and personal finance, personal income matters, but when it comes to politics there’s also this overlay of political perceptions that really do affect how people answer survey questions and maybe how they vote as well,” said Marquette poll director Charles Franklin, who compiled the data for Wisconsin Watch.

During the Trump years, among all respondents, 60% said they were living comfortably, compared with 50% in the last year of the Obama presidency and the past four years under Joe Biden.

But when you break that number down by party, the percentage of Republicans who reported living comfortably went from 54% at the end of the Obama era, way up to 69% under Trump and then crashing down to 45% under Biden. For Democrats it was steady improvement: 49% under Obama, 54% under Trump and 58% under Biden. Among independents it fluctuated, but less so than among Republicans, going from 42% to 49% to 40%.

Amplifying the Republican economic vibe shift in this election cycle is the polling data’s other big finding: Republicans are a lot less content with what they have.

The Marquette poll has consistently asked about economic mood alongside household income since 2016. For those with an income of more than $100,000 a year — the top quarter of households in Wisconsin — two out of three respondents in the last six polls said they were living comfortably, a little more than a quarter said they were “just getting by” and 6% said they were struggling.

Breaking that down again along party lines reveals a stark partisan divide over how much is needed to keep up with the Joneses.

Among Democrats making more than $100,000 a year, 81% said they are living comfortably. Among Republicans in that top income tier, it was only 55% — slightly less than Democrats who said they’re comfortable making $50,000 to $100,000. Only 2% of Democrats in that top income category said they are struggling. Among Republicans, it was 9%.

“Republicans making over $100,000 say they’re financially as well off as Democrats in the $50,000 to $100,000 range,” Franklin noted. “That’s just a helpful reminder that when Republicans say they’re struggling or they see the economy as doing poorly it’s not reflecting only their objective circumstances, but it’s reflecting that their answer to the ‘How are you doing?’ question does have this substantial component of partisanship.”

Half of Republicans who in recent polls said they are living comfortably named the economy as their top issue in this year’s election. Among comfortable Democrats, the No. 1 issue was abortion policy, mentioned by 29% with only 19% saying the top issue is the economy. For struggling and just-getting-by Democrats, as well as each tier among independents and Republicans, the economy was the top issue, though only 22% of comfortable independents said it was the economy followed by Medicare and Social Security at 16%.

None of this is to say that high inflation caused by the globally disruptive fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic hasn’t soured voters on the economy. For those on the lower end of the economic scale, Republican or Democrat, the last few years have given plenty of reason to be pessimistic.

But when some voters say the economy is their top issue, it may not be because of economic hardship. It could be a reflection of their partisan political views.

Forward is a look ahead at the week in Wisconsin government and politics from the Wisconsin Watch statehouse team.

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If we send you a request to change or remove Wisconsin Watch content from your site, you must agree to do so immediately. *** Also, the code below will NOT copy the featured image on the page. You are welcome to download the main image as a separate element for publication with this story. *** You are welcome to republish our articles forusing the following ground rules. For questions regarding republishing rules please contact Jeff Bauer, digital editor and producer, at [email protected] The economy is actually doing pretty well. So why do so many voters say it’s the top issue? <h1>The economy is actually doing pretty well. So why do so many voters say it’s the top issue?</h1> by Matthew DeFour / Wisconsin Watch, Wisconsin Watch September 30, 2024 “It’s the economy, stupid!” has once again become the axiomatic explanation for why this year’s presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump remains so close. There’s certainly a stupor that sets in when trying to explain why the economy is the No. 1 issue for voters at a time when most indicators — low <a href="https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm">unemployment</a>, steady <a href="https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/ces0000000001?output_view=net_1mth">job growth</a>, easing <a href="https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category-line-chart.htm">inflation</a>, rising <a href="https://www.atlantafed.org/chcs/wage-growth-tracker">wages</a>, declining <a href="https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_gas_price">gas prices</a>, record <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/djia">stock market</a> — suggest the economy is actually doing pretty well. But what if it’s not the economy? What if it’s something else? What if when some voters say it’s the economy, they’re actually just expressing a partisan viewpoint? That’s what a close look at Wisconsin polling data from the Marquette University Law School suggests is happening. The compilation of data from 40 Marquette polls going back to 2016 shows partisans, particularly Republicans, expressing more negative or positive views about their own economic situation depending on who’s in the White House. The six most recent polls from 2023 and 2024 also show Republicans expressing more pessimism about their economic situation than independents and Democrats with similar incomes. Both factors may help explain why public polling reflects so much consternation about an otherwise healthy economy. <figure class="wp-block-image alignwide size-full"><img src="https://wisconsinwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/2024-vote-income.png" alt="" class="wp-image-1298297" /></figure> “The economy matters and personal finance, personal income matters, but when it comes to politics there’s also this overlay of political perceptions that really do affect how people answer survey questions and maybe how they vote as well,” said Marquette poll director Charles Franklin, who compiled the data for Wisconsin Watch. During the Trump years, among all respondents, 60% said they were living comfortably, compared with 50% in the last year of the Obama presidency and the past four years under Joe Biden. But when you break that number down by party, the percentage of Republicans who reported living comfortably went from 54% at the end of the Obama era, way up to 69% under Trump and then crashing down to 45% under Biden. For Democrats it was steady improvement: 49% under Obama, 54% under Trump and 58% under Biden. Among independents it fluctuated, but less so than among Republicans, going from 42% to 49% to 40%. Amplifying the Republican economic vibe shift in this election cycle is the polling data’s other big finding: Republicans are a lot less content with what they have. The Marquette poll has consistently asked about economic mood alongside household income since 2016. For those with an income of more than $100,000 a year — the top quarter of households in Wisconsin — two out of three respondents in the last six polls said they were living comfortably, a little more than a quarter said they were “just getting by” and 6% said they were struggling. <figure class="wp-block-image aligncenter size-full"><img src="https://wisconsinwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Party-Income.png" alt="" class="wp-image-1298298" /></figure> Breaking that down again along party lines reveals a stark partisan divide over how much is needed to keep up with the Joneses. Among Democrats making more than $100,000 a year, 81% said they are living comfortably. Among Republicans in that top income tier, it was only 55% — slightly less than Democrats who said they’re comfortable making $50,000 to $100,000. Only 2% of Democrats in that top income category said they are struggling. Among Republicans, it was 9%. “Republicans making over $100,000 say they’re financially as well off as Democrats in the $50,000 to $100,000 range,” Franklin noted. “That’s just a helpful reminder that when Republicans say they’re struggling or they see the economy as doing poorly it’s not reflecting only their objective circumstances, but it’s reflecting that their answer to the ‘How are you doing?’ question does have this substantial component of partisanship.” Half of Republicans who in recent polls said they are living comfortably named the economy as their top issue in this year’s election. Among comfortable Democrats, the No. 1 issue was abortion policy, mentioned by 29% with only 19% saying the top issue is the economy. For struggling and just-getting-by Democrats, as well as each tier among independents and Republicans, the economy was the top issue, though only 22% of comfortable independents said it was the economy followed by Medicare and Social Security at 16%. None of this is to say that high inflation caused by the globally disruptive fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic hasn’t soured voters on the economy. For those on the lower end of the economic scale, Republican or Democrat, the last few years have given plenty of reason to be pessimistic. But when some voters say the economy is their top issue, it may not be because of economic hardship. It could be a reflection of their partisan political views. Forward is a look ahead at the week in Wisconsin government and politics from the Wisconsin Watch statehouse team. This <a target="_blank" href="https://wisconsinwatch.org/2024/09/wisconsin-economy-voters-republican-democrat-poll-trump-harris/">article</a> first appeared on <a target="_blank" href="https://wisconsinwatch.org">Wisconsin Watch</a> and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.<img src="https://i0.wp.com/wisconsinwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/cropped-WCIJ_IconOnly_FullColor_RGB-1.png?fit=150%2C150&quality=100&ssl=1" style="width:1em;height:1em;margin-left:10px;"><img id="republication-tracker-tool-source" src="https://wisconsinwatch.org/?republication-pixel=true&post=1298292&ga4=G-D2S69Y9TDB" style="width:1px;height:1px;"><script> PARSELY = { autotrack: false, onload: function() { PARSELY.beacon.trackPageView({ url: "https://wisconsinwatch.org/2024/09/wisconsin-economy-voters-republican-democrat-poll-trump-harris/", urlref: window.location.href }); } } </script> <script id="parsely-cfg" src="//cdn.parsely.com/keys/wisconsinwatch.org/p.js"></script> Copy to Clipboard

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