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Preview of 2025 election: How the influence of political families and organizations has waned [1]
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Date: 2025-07-15
The candidate lineups for the 2025 New Orleans mayoral and council elections are set. Primary elections will be held on Oct.11, and any necessary runoffs will be held on Nov. 15.
This election will be the first open mayoral election in 50 years not driven by support for, or opposition to, established political family dynasties or Black political organizations. The mayor’s office and three council offices are vacant, so regardless of how incumbents perform, there will be a regime change.
For the last 50 years, city politics was either dominated by old family dynasties or by Black political organizations such as LIFE, BOLD, COUP or SOUL. In the past 20 years since Katrina, the influence of political families and organizations has gradually waned.
Political scientist Clarence Stone coined the term “urban regime” when describing the types of networks that govern cities.
In the past, the occupants of New Orleans City Hall — whoever they were — have often been described as “caretaker regimes,” governed by family-based or neighborhood organization-based political aristocracies, that maintained coalitions by awarding patronage jobs and government contracts.
By contrast, other Southern cities such as Atlanta, Houston, and Dallas are described as “corporate regimes.” They lack traditional family-based or neighborhood-based political aristocracies. Instead, those cities are governed by coalitions between politicians and business leaders, and those coalitions are constantly changing with each election cycle, usually based on who can best deliver high-paying corporate jobs to their city.
There are other types of regime classifications: Progressive, demand-side, entrepreneurial, etc. While it is too early to say the type of regime that New Orleans will become, it is clear that the current caretaker regime is fading.
The current or former elected officials in the race for mayor are: Councilmember-at-Large Helena Moreno, District E Councilmember Oliver Thomas, retired Criminal District Court Judge Arthur Hunter, and State Sen. Royce Duplessis. Moreno has led in every poll taken so far in the race, and also leads all candidates in fundraising.
Ten additional candidates qualified to run for mayor, for a total of fourteen. None of the candidates are currently claiming an association with a political organization. Councilmember Thomas had an organizational affiliation with BOLD in the past, but no longer uses that affiliation. None are the children of past mayors, or related to past mayors. None are related to any current office-holder.
In the council races, the most watched race will be Moreno’s vacated at-large seat. Three candidates qualified, including two current legislators — State Reps. Mathew Willard and Delisha Boyd. Council district A, a vacant seat, drew five candidates, including two former council staffers to incumbent Joe Giarrusso: Holly Friedman and Aimee McCarron. The other vacant district council seat, District E — now occupied by mayoral-contender Thomas — drew a whopping 11 candidates, including State Representative Jason Hughes and former Councilmember Cyndi Nguyen.
Three incumbent councilmembers attracted challengers. At-Large Councilmember JP Morrell has 2 challengers. District C Councilmember Freddie King III drew 3 challengers, and District D Councilmember Eugene Green has 3 challengers.
In an example of the decline of a once-powerful organization, District B Councilmember Leslie Harris was elected unopposed. For decades, the district B seat was controlled by BOLD, and was the base of their neighborhood power. Four years ago, Harris defeated a BOLD incumbent to win her seat. In this election, the organization did not even field a candidate in its own power base.
The decline of political organizations seems to correlate with a decline in voter turnout, perhaps because of the loss of the turnout functions of the neighborhood-based groups. In the last pre-Katrina mayoral runoff election in 2002 with a vacant seat, turnout was 44.3%. Turnout gradually decreased in each election cycle and was 33.3% in 2017, the last post-Katrina cycle with a vacant seat. Turnout was 29.1% in 2021, the last cycle with an incumbent mayor.
It should be noted that corporate regimes usually have low turnout rates. In their last mayoral runoff elections with vacant seats, Atlanta had 21% in 2021, Dallas had 10% in 2019, and Houston had 17% in 2023.
There seems to be a tradeoff in regime types: As caretaker organization-based regimes fade, so does voter participation. This could lead to vulnerable populations not having a voice unless the issue is recognized and mitigated. Perhaps nonprofit organizations can fill the void by engaging in non-partisan voter turnout campaigns and offering rides to the polls for those without transportation.
Regardless of the type of regimes competing, it remains the responsibility of each citizen to educate themselves about the candidates and to vote in each election. Democracy only works when everyone participates.
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