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The Blast - June 25, 2025 [1]

['The Texas Tribune']

Date: 2025-06

Texas officials could accede to the White House’s congressional redistricting push, and there is speculation that the Legislature may redraw House and Senate district lines while they’re at it. That would change who is eligible to run where, so candidates may wish to keep their powder dry.

As potential candidates decide whether to run, they’ll have to weigh whether they can get Patrick’s support or build a war chest to compete with his eventual candidate. There’s also the looming question about redistricting.

Other GOP House members whose districts overlap with SD 9 are longtime Rep. Charlie Geren and freshman Rep. John McQueeney , both of Fort Worth. Both had previously said they were running for reelection and have not commented on the Senate race since Hancock resigned.

Former Rep. Stephanie Klick , R-Fort Worth, and Rep. Giovanni Capriglione , R-Southlake, told The Blast they aren’t running for the seat. Former Rep. Matt Krause of Haslett, now a Tarrant County Commissioner, has endorsed Schatzline, as has Reps. David Lowe of North Richland Hills.

Two sources involved in Tarrant County politics say Fort Worth Mayor Mattie Parker is considering a run, but the Republican base may view her as too liberal in a GOP primary.

Schatzline has been a conservative stalwart in his two terms in the House, but his brand of conservatism hasn’t made him many friends in the business community. Business-aligned interests are searching for a potential candidate.

Schatzline is working with Nick Maddux of Axiom Strategies. He didn’t get the immediate Patrick endorsement, but that doesn’t mean one isn’t coming. Patrick endorsed the Fort Worth Republican in both 2022 and 2024.

SD-11, 2026: Patrick endorsed state Rep. Dennis Paul of Houston within minutes of Paul announcing his campaign. Paul hired Blakemore.

SD-27, 2024: Patrick didn’t endorse now-Sen. Adam Hinojosa of Corpus Christi until the general election, although Hinojosa was unopposed in the primary. Hinojosa hired Blakemore. (Patrick had also endorsed Hinojosa after the 2022 primary.)

SD-31, 2022: Patrick endorsed now-Sen. Kevin Sparks of Midland two months after Sparks launched his campaign and a few weeks after President Donald Trump endorsed him. Blakemore went to bat for Sparks as he tried to oust then-Sen. Kel Seliger , R-Amarillo, who ultimately declined to run for reelection. Sparks hired Blakemore for his 2022 campaign.

SD-12, 2022: Patrick endorsed then-Rep. Tan Parker of Flower Mound two months after Parker launched his campaign. Parker is a Blakemore client.

SD-11, 2022: Patrick endorsed then-Rep. Mayes Middleton of Galveston 14 days after Middleton launched his campaign. Middleton is a Jordan Berry client.

SD-10, 2022: Patrick endorsed then-Rep. Phil King of Weatherford within minutes of King launching his campaign. King is a Kevin Brannon client.

Patrick has historically been the gatekeeper for Republican Senate nominees, and hiring his consultant, Allen Blakemore , is a sign that a given candidate has the lieutenant governor’s stamp of approval. Just look to the most recent Texas Senate GOP nominees for some examples:

The Tarrant County seat became vacant last week when Sen. Kelly Hancock , R-North Richland Hills, resigned to become acting comptroller. But so far, Schatzline has been the only one to publicly express interest.

In launching his campaign yesterday, Schatzline released a list of endorsements from conservative House colleagues and Tarrant County leaders. However, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick has been silent in the first 24 hours-plus of Schatzline’s campaign.

State Rep. Nate Schatzline is the first out of the gate for Senate District 9, but don’t expect him to be the only Republican to run.

“HALCYON DAYS” UP AGAINST GREAT RECESSION ECHOES

After years of lawmakers hailing the state’s budget surplus, some bean counters are beginning to flag that the state revenue is leveling off.

For the first time since the Great Recession, the state’s revenue tipped downward in the latest fiscal year compared to the year before, according to the latest Legislative Budget Board figures. Bill King, the former mayor of Kemah and a public finance fellow at Rice University’'s Baker Institute for Public Policy, noted the decline in his newsletter today.

“I am afraid that the halcyon days of large state budget surpluses may be a thing of the past,” King wrote.

However, when diving into Texas’ revenue sources, the 3.6% overall drop in the 2024 fiscal year — which ran from September 2023 through August last year — can be mostly attributed to a decline in federal money, coinciding with the end of pandemic relief.

The amount of money Texas got from the federal coffers jumped dramatically in the 2021 fiscal year and has been tapering toward pre-pandemic levels ever since. COVID aid must be spent by December 2026, meaning this past session was effectively the last-chance grab for the state and local governments to get in on those funds.

Meanwhile, Texas’ non-federal revenue has increased every year since the 2020 fiscal year.

Data from Legislative Budget Board

Texas boasts a record rainy day fund that could top $27 billion by the end of the fiscal year, and during this past session, lawmakers left billions from the budget surplus on the table — to the dismay of some of the most conservative members of the Legislature, like freshman Rep. Mike Olcott, R-Fort Worth.

The shifting budget outlook comes as Texas is lined up to spend $51 billion cutting property taxes over the next two years. Those efforts could be complicated by local governments, who may face pressure to raise revenue to keep pace with their old federally padded spending levels.

James Quintero of the Texas Public Policy Institute told The Blast the situation smacks of what happened after Texas received an infusion of federal funds to weather the Great Recession. Quintero recalled that in a 2011 panel, he got then-Legislative Budget Board Director John O’Brien to say that one-third of that federal aid — intended as one-time spending — had become ingrained as permanent spending.

“What my concern with all of the expired ARPA money today is how much of that has actually gone away and how much still remains in a different form, because that that will create spending pressures well into the future that will complicate the state’'s revenue picture if the situation does deteriorate,” Quintero said.

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[1] Url: https://thetexastribune.beehiiv.com/p/the-blast-june-25-2025-ad15db4bfea9d8b5

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