(C) Tennessee Lookout
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Expect Republicans and Democrats to compete in eight Tennessee state races this November • Tennessee Lookout [1]
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Date: 2024-08-21
With less than 100 days until the election, state Republicans and Democrats have narrowed their election maps to a handful of seats as each party sees a chance to add members to next year’s General Assembly.
Republicans have limited opportunities to expand their caucus, as they already dominate nearly every seat outside Nashville and Memphis, controlling 75% of House seats and 81% of the Senate.
Democrats see seats in Memphis, Knoxville, Clarksville, Smyrna and possibly Signal Mountain as up for grabs. The additional of Signal Mountain follows the primary loss of more moderate incumbent Republican Patsy Hazlewood. Michele Reneau narrowly won the primary by positioning herself to the right of Hazlewood, painting her as insufficiently conservative.
Democrats have also nominated Kathy Lennon, a former school board member and teacher, to face Reneau, hoping her local name recognition and popularity can help overcome party identification.
A top Republican priority is also to regain a foothold in Nashville, where they’ve been shut out of the Senate since 2020 and the House since 2018. The party will also try to flip a Clarksville seat held by Democrat Rep. Ronnie Glynn, who won his 2022 election by 153 votes.
State Republicans and Democrat leaders hesitated to share their election plans, trying not to tip their strategy to the other party.
Republican House Majority Leader William Lamberth of Portland said his caucus was “focused on every race a Republican was running in.”
Democratic House Caucus Chair John Ray Clemmons of Nashville said his party’s positions on issues like abortion and education would allow them to compete in more races than initially anticipated.
What's happened is now all politics is national, and it absolutely sucks all the air of the room to the point where voters are picking races for county clerk and school board based on party. – Kent Syler, Middle Tennessee State University
Conservative credentials and support for private school vouchers broadly defined Republican primary races in August. The only competitive Democratic primary was in southeast Nashville, where liberal credentials won out over perceived electability.
But the November general election will likely be defined by the presidential campaign.
“The issues haven’t changed,” said Kent Syler, a political professor at MTSU. “What’s happened is now all politics is national, and it absolutely sucks all the air of the room to the point where voters are picking races for county clerk and school board based on party. Local candidates are often defined by national party positions, not their own.”
Republicans want back in Nashville
A GOP member in Nashville could help the party in its continued attempts to control the state capitol, which Democrats hold locally. City leaders and Republican state officials have been at odds for years over issues like regulating AirBnB, prosecuting marijuana crimes and providing money for out-of-state abortions to city employees.
These tensions reached a high in 2023 over redistricting by the state and the city’s council blocking Nashville from hosting this year’s Republican National Convention.
That year, state Republicans attempted to shrink the city council, take control of the city’s airport and sports stadium oversight boards, and eliminate the citizen police oversight board but the courts blocked most of their efforts. Nashville’s legal department has won every lawsuit against the state so far, choosing not to challenge the police oversight board.
Any Republican elected in Nashville would give the party more weight in the bills targeting the city.
The retirement of Darren Jernigan in southeast Nashville has given the GOP hope it can boost former Republican caucus aide Chad Bobo in his race against Democrat Shaundelle Brooks. Brooks won a heated Democratic primary over Tyler Brasher, who tried to paint the nonprofit executive as unelectable.
Senate Republicans also plan to boost Wyatt Rampy in his attempt to unseat Democrat Heidi Campbell in her seat that wraps around Nashville, connecting its south and north suburbs.
Republicans can afford to contest the Nashville seats and still defend their incumbents because they hold a significant cash advantage over Democrats.
House and Senate Republican caucus and leadership PACs have $2 million and $1 million in the bank, respectively, according to disclosures filed on July 25. In contrast, House Democrats have $440,000, while Senate Democrats have $140,000.
In some races the incumbents do face a cash disadvantage.
Allie Phillips, the Democratic candidate in western Clarksville’s House District 75 seat, has raised more than her opponent Jeff Burkhart with $186,000 in the bank compared to his $85,000. Campbell has about $65,000 in cash on hand, while through personal loans Rampy has over $120,000.
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