(C) Tennessee Lookout
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Editor's notebook: Heading into the election cycle, Tennessee trends to watch for • Tennessee Lookout [1]
['J. Holly Mccall', 'More From Author', 'March']
Date: 2024-03-12
The Super Tuesday primary elections in Tennessee brought more of what we’ve come to expect of late: low turnout, little enthusiasm and in many areas, slim ballot choices.
There was kvetching from Republicans about Democrats crossing over to vote in GOP primaries, and griping from Democrats about having no one for whom to vote. And there was little reason for either to be excited about the top of the ticket choices, as it was a fait accompli that President Joe Biden — who had no opposition on the state ballot — and former president Donald Trump would easily win.
But in the Republican primary, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley picked up 20% of the vote, which is notable in a state that has always been Trump country and could indicate dissatisfaction with the nominee apparent from moderates. Though she’s out of the race, Haley’s primary pull might signal the start of a trend in Tennessee.
Far-right candidates lost
Hyper-conservative Republican candidates fared poorly, especially in the so-called “doughnut counties” surrounding Nashville, including Sumner, Wilson and Williamson.
Notably, the entire Sumner County Constitutional Republicans slate — a group that calls itself the “Accountability Arm of the Republican Party,” yet potentially faces an investigation by the Tennessee Attorney General’s Office over alleged campaign finance improprieties — lost school board and judicial races to moderates.
Since members of the group took over a majority of the seats on the Sumner County Commission, they scrapped the county’s human resources department, tried to transfer public historic property into private hands and got sued by the county’s election commission for interfering in the administration of elections.
Apparently, Sumner County residents had enough of the interference. Constitutional Republicans blame Democrats for crossing over to vote against them on Republican ballots, and no doubt that could be partially correct. But given Tennessee doesn’t require voter registration by party, proof is tough to come by.
In Williamson County, interim Circuit Court Judge Erin Nations was comfortably defeated by David Veile, a former police officer and defense attorney. Nations, who was appointed by Gov. Bill Lee to fill a vacancy in November, branded herself as a conservative and accused fellow Republican Veile of “making a career defending child rapists and career criminals.”
And in Wilson County, two school board candidates who received support from Moms for Liberty, a group that has advocated book banning in school libraries, were defeated.
All three counties have conservative reputations, but last Tuesday’s outcomes could be a bellwether as suburbs are becoming more liberal. The Pew Research Center reported in July 2023 that suburban voters have grown as a share of the Democratic coalition since 2016.
Subtle changes are coming in other parts of state, too. Clint Cooper of the Chattanooga Times Free Press wrote just after the 2022 elections that Chattanooga and Hamilton County suburbs are turning purple.
Empty slots on Democratic ballots
If Democrats are going to take advantage of both demographic voting shifts and legislative Republican missteps, the party must field candidates.
Several legislative seats look ripe to be flipped, including House District 97 in Shelby County, currently held by Rep. John Gillespie, who has strong opposition from businessman Jesse Huseth. But far too many Republican incumbents remain unchallenged at all levels for Democrats to make inroads.
Take the Fifth Congressional District, for instance. Since U.S. Rep. Andy Ogles won the Republican primary in August 2022, plenty of notable Republicans have talked about offering an opponent to take him out in the upcoming primary. But not only does the GOP have no takers of note, Democrats have thus far failed to find a candidate — and the filing deadline is only 24 days away.
Rep. Justin Jones, D-Nashville, floated rumors in 2023 that he would run for the CD5 seat, a move that effectively chilled other credible potential candidates who didn’t want to face off in a primary against Jones and his formidable bank account. Jones did not return phone calls or texts asking whether he still plans to run, and while he can’t be ruled out, the timing makes a congressional campaign look less likely.
And 43 of 99 state House seats are uncontested by Democrats. To be sure, it’s understandable that it’s a hard sell to potential candidates who know they are likely to lose, risk jobs and income, and face opprobrium in GOP-dominated communities, but the loyal opposition won’t begin to create change until it can, at the minimum, field contenders.
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