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Struggle for control of Congress too close to call as states begin adding up votes • South Dakota Searchlight [1]
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Date: 2024-11-05
WASHINGTON — Republicans and Democrats began tallying their wins in congressional districts and Senate races Tuesday night, anxious to learn who would be in the majority and set the agenda for the next two years, though it could be days or even weeks before that’s entirely settled.
The two dozen closest House races and handful of toss-up Senate campaigns are likely to go to recounts or even lawsuits, possibly delaying race calls and a firm understanding of who exactly voters chose to represent them on Capitol Hill.
The Senate was leaning toward flipping from a Democratic majority to a Republican one, but that was far from final and will be determined by the vote tally in Arizona, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Voters in Florida, Nebraska and Texas may also play a role determining Senate control, though those seats — occupied by Sens. Rick Scott, Deb Fischer and Ted Cruz, respectively — are considered safer for the GOP than the seven others.
One congressional race in SD Republican U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson of South Dakota is seeking reelection to his fourth term against Democratic challenger Sheryl Johnson. Check South Dakota Searchlight's Live Results page for updates.
How it could play out
There are four possible scenarios for the 119th Congress, slated to begin on Jan. 3, 2025, leaving aside the question of which party controls the White House and would cast tie-breaking votes in a possible 50-50 Senate:
Republicans keep their majority in the House and Democrats hold on to the Senate, continuing the balance of power that currently exists in Congress.
Democrats flip the House and Republicans regain the Senate, maintaining a divided Congress with the opposite party in control of each chamber.
Republicans keep their majority in the House and regain control of the Senate for unified GOP control.
Democrats hold on to the Senate and flip the House for unified Democratic control.
Each option brings with it significant implications for the next president’s legislative agenda, their ability to quickly set up a Cabinet via Senate confirmations and whether they’d be able to move judicial nominations through the upper chamber, including possible Supreme Court nominees.
A divided Congress would require the next president to negotiate bipartisan deals on must-pass legislation and make concessions with the opposing party to move any major policy changes through Congress.
Unified control of Congress for either Democrats or Republicans could mean more movement on legislation, though whether those bills become law will rest on who occupies the Oval Office.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics projected Monday that voters would give Republicans a 52-seat majority in the Senate and Democrats an extremely narrow, and likely problematic, 218-217 majority in the House.
Managing Editor Kyle Kondik, Associate Editor J. Miles Coleman and Director Larry J. Sabato wrote in their analysis that if “the House actually is as close as we suspect it might be, the majority likely won’t be known for weeks, particularly if it comes down to races in California, where vote counts can take weeks to complete.”
“In all likelihood, the actual majority will be at least a little bigger than this for whomever wins it, although both sides are prepared for another tiny majority,” they wrote.
The three noted in their analysis that “Republicans have been favorites to win the Senate majority for months,” though they wrote that Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump winning another term in the White House “could easily lead to a bigger night for Senate Republicans.”
Senate confirmations ahead
The Associated Press, the news organization that States Newsroom looks to for race calls based on its decades of experience, had announced 11 Senate races, but hadn’t called any of the toss-up states as of 8 p.m. Eastern.
Republican U.S. Rep. Jim Banks won his first Senate campaign in deeply red Indiana and West Virginia GOP Gov. Jim Justice flipped the seat currently held by Joe Manchin III. Tennessee Sen. Marsha Blackburn, Florida Sen. Rick Scott and Mississippi Sen. Roger Wicker, all Republicans, easily won reelection in their states.
Democratic Sens. Chris Murphy of Connecticut, Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island all secured reelection, as did independent Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, who typically votes with Democrats, according to the AP.
New Jersey voters elected U.S. Rep. Andy Kim to the Senate while Delaware elected U.S. Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester.
Republicans’ road to regaining control of the Senate would likely run through Montana and Ohio, though leaders were hoping for additional wins as well.
Montana Democratic Sen. Jon Tester has spent months campaigning for a fourth term as Republican Tim Sheehy sought to defeat the centrist, who chairs the Veterans’ Affairs Committee and Defense Appropriations subcommittee.
In Ohio, Sen. Sherrod Brown, first elected to the Senate in 2006 and chairman of the Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee, was hoping to fend off a challenge from Republican Bernie Moreno against long odds.
Senate control is slightly more important for the next president than having their party in charge of the House, since the upper chamber is tasked with vetting and confirming Cabinet secretaries, several key executive branch appointments, judicial nominees and Supreme Court justices.
Unlike the House, where lawmakers face reelection or retirement every two years, senators are elected to six-year terms, meaning about one-third of the chamber is on the ballot during a given election year.
This year, 34 Senate seats were up for reelection, 23 of which are held by Democrats, while 11 are Republican controlled.
House toss-up race calls
The AP had called 61 of the 435 House races as of 8 p.m. Eastern, but many of the toss-up races were still too close to determine the winner.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball wrote in its analysis that “the battle for the House has been a Toss-up for essentially the whole cycle” and that its experts generally expected “the presidential and House winner was likelier than not to be the same.”
A total of 218 seats are needed to control the House, though that is the bare minimum in a chamber where members regularly miss votes, take extended leaves of absence for illness or injury and sometimes resign mid-session.
Republican leaders struggled to pass partisan bills during the last two years with a razor-thin majority, currently split at 220-212, and Democratic leadership would likely do so as well should Sabato’s projections come to pass.
Kondik, Coleman and Sabato wrote in their analysis that if “Democrats do end up winning the House this year, it would be the first time since 1952 that the majority changed hands in a presidential year.”
This is a developing story and will be updated.
Last updated 6:51 p.m., Nov. 5, 2024
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