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Wider Europe [1]

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Date: 2023-11-07

Welcome to Wider Europe, RFE/RL's new newsletter focusing on the key issues concerning the European Union, NATO, and other institutions and their relationships with the Western Balkans and Europe's Eastern neighborhoods.

I'm RFE/RL Europe Editor Rikard Jozwiak, and this week I'm drilling down on the European Commission's upcoming enlargement report and Sweden's final steps in its bid to join NATO.

Brief #1: The EU's Big Enlargement Decision Is Looming

What You Need To Know: The European Commission's long-awaited annual enlargement report is set to be released on November 8. The release has been constantly postponed, as the report was originally expected to come out in early October.

The delay was due to a number of factors. Firstly, there was a wish from EU member states that the enlargement report wouldn't be released ahead of the EU summit in Brussels on October 26-27, with fears that it could "hijack" discussions on other issues such as the bloc's budget and migration.

Secondly, the enlargement report is huge, with assessments on 10 countries -- Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Georgia, Kosovo, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, Turkey, and Ukraine.

There is a lot of ground to cover and EU member states -- the ultimate arbiters in the enlargement process -- have to study the documents before making a decision.

Member states will vote on the enlargement questions at the EU's General Affairs Council, which brings together the bloc's foreign ministers, in Brussels on December 12.

A potential decision will then need to be rubber-stamped at the EU summit in Brussels two days later.

Finally, the enlargement report has been delayed partly because the European Commission has been generous with the time it has allowed several countries to fulfill certain conditions and reforms that Brussels has set for the EU hopefuls.

Deep Background: According to various media reports, the European Commission will recommend the opening of accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova.

An EU source familiar with the enlargement report who could only speak on the condition of anonymity told me that European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen wouldn't have traveled to Kyiv on November 4 if there hadn't been "positive signals" from Ukraine.

Regarding Ukraine and Moldova, it's important to note the conditions and timelines -- and how those requirements and targets might be referred to in the reports.

Moldova and Ukraine have not yet fulfilled all the priorities set out by the EU in the summer of 2022. That could mean some sort of diplomatic fudge.

While EU member states might decide to open accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova in December, the actual opening of talks -- which involves the "screening" of all the EU legislation that countries need to adopt to become members -- will take place in early 2024. And all bets are off as to how long the whole process will take, as accession talks can sometimes drag on for years.

Drilling Down

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