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Analysis: A Compromise For Now On Letting Russians Into The EU [1]
['Rikard Jozwiak']
Date: 2022-09
Talks in Prague this week over Russian citizens entering the European Union ended with a flexible solution that will decrease the number of visas issued and make it harder for those with relevant travel documents to enter.
The visa issue, which has divided the EU over the summer, is likely to rumble on though as several key questions remain
Moreover, the passions and emotions triggered by the debate show that it will be harder for Brussels to agree on restrictive measures in the future, meant to pressure the Kremlin and punish the country for its war on Ukraine.
After two days of talks between EU foreign ministers in the Czech capital, which included dividing ministers into smaller groups with the hope of bridging political divides, EU foreign ministers finally agreed on a compromise on August 31.
Firstly, they agreed to suspend the visa facilitation agreement that the bloc agreed with Russia in 2007. The agreement was already partly suspended shortly after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February, making it harder for people connected to the regime of Russian President Vladimir Putin to get visas to the EU's Schengen zone, where countries have abolished border controls, but sparing so-called "ordinary Russian citizens." Now those "ordinary Russians" might fare a little worse, as visas will become more expensive, take longer to process, and require more paperwork for pretty much everyone.
These further restrictions, however, were not enough to pacify the three Baltic states, Finland, and Poland, which have seen over half a million Russians cross their borders with Schengen visas since the war started in February. Those visas were often issued by other EU member states and were the only way Russians could circumvent the airspace ban on Russian flights to the EU that was implemented in March.
Regional Solution?
Those countries wanted the EU to take a firmer line with a full or near-full visa ban granting only a few exceptions, such as for humanitarian reasons. As a concession to those countries, ministers in Prague also signed off on a sentence in the agreement that looks rather innocuous at first but actually could end up carrying significant weight: "Given the challenging implications for the bordering countries, we acknowledge that measures can be taken at [a] national level to restrict entry into the EU in conformity with the EU Schengen border code."
This doesn't automatically stop Russians entering at the borders of these five countries, but it does offer the affected countries a chance to cook up a regional solution with the EU's blessing.
A regional solution could come sooner rather than later. On September 2, relevant officials from the quintet of countries directly bordering Russia are set to meet with the aim of coming up with a common approach by next week. An EU source with knowledge of the debate but who wasn't authorized to speak on the matter said that a potential solution could include case-by-case scrutiny of every single Russian attempting to cross their borders. In practice, this means that what once might have taken a few minutes to cross the border from Russia will now take much longer and will, perhaps intentionally, create bigger bottlenecks.
"No tunnels, no corridors" was the mantra repeated by officials over the last few days of negotiations, emphasizing that no exemptions on Russia's borders will be made for visas issued from other western EU countries. Crucially, the visa issue will now be treated like a regional problem, with the Baltic states, Finland, and Poland still having the power to outright deny entry to any individual, even one holding a valid visa.
"National security concerns" will be the official justification, although in truth the reasons are much more political. Echoing public sentiments, politicians in the countries concerned have objected publicly to images of Russians partying in their capitals over the summer and Maseratis with Russian license plates parked on their streets, all while Ukrainians are bombed out of their homes. Latvians will hold parliamentary elections in October, and the Finns and Estonians will go to the polls in spring 2023, and their respective governments are keen not to let visas for Russians become a defining electoral issue.
Despite this week's compromise, questions still remain. Will the other 22 countries that don't have a land border with Russia follow suit in slowing down the Russian visa process? It's unlikely, as they're getting fewer applications anyway and getting into Schengen will be even more of a challenge.
It's likely that all member states will be more vigilant about letting Russians in, but it might become something of a nonissue as the summer holiday season comes to an end. Russia has also kicked out so many EU diplomats at various consulates around the country that it's much harder for Russians to even apply. Belgium announced recently that all their visa-issuing officials had now left the country.
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[1] Url:
https://www.rferl.org/a/russians-eu-visas-restrictions-analysis/32014297.html
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