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Peace in an extreme climate: How climate-related security risks affect prospects for stability in Lake Chad [1]

['Chitra Nagarajan', 'Freelance Conflict Analyst', 'Janani Vivekananda', 'Adelphi', 'Berlin', 'Binh Pham-Duc', 'Aix-Marseille Université', 'Cnrs', 'Ird', 'Collège De France']

Date: 2024-10

1. Climate change and ecological changes increase livelihood insecurity.

Many people living around the lake have mixed livelihoods, making their living by combining fishing, agriculture, livestock farming, and trade, often switching at different times of the year. Most livelihoods are climate-sensitive, but people have changed occupations for generations in response to lake and climate variation. For example, people would traditionally shift from flood-recession agriculture to livestock farming and fishing when the risk of early flooding seems high. People would also migrate during flood recession, especially around the northern pool where flood variability is highest, to nearby towns or the lake’s southern pool for more significant farming opportunities.

Currently, climate change impacts the Sahelian zone of west-central Africa with higher year to year variability in the amount of precipitation during rainy seasons [10]. The intense climate variability affecting the central Sahel plays out in the Lake Chad region in the fluctuating size of the northern pool and increasing unpredictability of when and how much rain falls. Furthermore, because of the shallowness of the lake and higher ambient temperatures, vegetation cover is increasing, particularly in shallow areas. As a result, this slows water movement across the lake and hampers fishing, boat transport and mobility [5]. Thus, Climate variability and change combined with conflict have substantial implications for livelihoods and these coping mechanisms [19,35].

Interviewees reported that pastoralist face severe challenges coming from climate change as their animals die from hunger and thirst due to lack of water and pasture exacerbated by higher temperatures. As a result, pastoralists and their animals remain closer to more populated areas, compounding the stress on accessible, fertile land. Research for this assessment found that many people who previously made their livelihoods from fishing have been moved away from water bodies due to growing vegetation.

Similarly, farmers are also facing climate change related affectations to their livelihood activities. In the poignant words of a young male farmer in Monguno, Nigeria:

"Before, we had three farming options. The first was during the rainy season. If the rain stopped, we were okay because we could go for our second option: farming irrigated by the stream, which does not require rain. If the stream dried up, we could go to the third–to Lake Chad to plant rice. Of course, the lake keeps changing, so that is never certain, but all three disasters would not hit you in the same year. But now, we cannot do this. Due to the crisis, every economic avenue has been destroyed, and virtually all economic activities have collapsed. If one option fails- likely because of rainfall, security restrictions and armed fighters—you cannot do others" (Farmer participant from Nigeria, personal communication, 2017). Another farmer from Cameroon also noted that “The crops that have more impact is maize and for space for example if there are more rains you can have 8 or 9 bags of your maize but if there are no rains you will just have only one bag” (Farmer participant from Cameroon, personal communication, 2018).

As climate change pressures livelihoods, such as fishing and farming, by changing cropping patterns, planting times, or grazing routes, participants reported a clear increase in conflicts over resources such as grazing land, water access and fishing. Traditional mechanisms for resolving such disputes, such as compensation, are no longer proving effective or workable, as people no longer have sufficient assets to draw upon to compensate other parties.

These pressures lead to decreasing social cohesion and increasing tensions and conflicts at all levels of society. The research found that at the household level, inter-generational tensions and increased domestic violence increase as strained livelihoods challenge traditional conceptions of masculinity and ‘manhood’. Between and within different identity groups, such as IDPs, host communities, and occupational groups, pre-existing grievances are more prone to escalate as climate risks compound grievances and conflict resolution mechanisms become less viable. Moreover, strains on the social contract grow between people and the state as climate-fragility pressures magnify shortcomings in governance and basic service provision. Notably, the increasing climate variability, as represented in changing rainfall patterns and hotter temperatures rather than the change in lake levels poses the most significant challenges. Rather than constituting an unmitigated disaster, the lake’s past shrinking had significant positive effects in opening fertile land for recession crops and pasture, leading to net in-migration [3,36]. As a woman farmer participant from Chad mentioned, about her perception on rainfall patterns: “There is change. This change, before when I was a child, there is abundant rain. People were cultivating millet everywhere, you can harvest and it stays for one year. Now, the millet and the maize all together they cannot stay for one year. Everybody is crying during the period, there is no millet, there is no maize, crying. And the sun also became very hot now. Before the sun was not like this. I don’t know whether the population increased or God was angry and he sent some punishment, I don’t know but the situation is this” (Woman farmer participant from Chad, personal communication, 2017).

However, other sectors, especially fishing and irrigated agriculture, have intermittently lost out. Whereas greater annual fluctuation can offer benefits regarding the fertility of the land for recession agriculture, the uncertainty about variation brings significant livelihood risks as the communities cannot plan their activities accordingly. It also remains to be seen how this ecosystem can maintain a rapidly increasing population, which has tripled over the past 40 years. Furthermore, water system governance and environmental law in the region are weak. Human activities such as unregulated deforestation and fishing are affecting the lake’s sustainability. Moreover, residents report that officials responsible for monitoring water delivery and taxes operate without accountability, resulting in decreased trust in the government. The standard irrigation method, flooding irrigation, contributes to significant water losses, evapotranspiration, and runoff. Extensive irrigation schemes like the South Chad Irrigation Project (SCIP) have been implemented, causing the lake to shrink to the point where rainy-season rice cultivation is impossible, and dry-season wheat production is limited. All of this is exacerbated by unpredictable scarcity and uneven distribution of rainfall patterns [37,38]. A woman farmer from Chad mentioned in this regard: “When I was a child, they were cultivating many things: sugar cane, many things, various things. But since they made the dams, water is going back and the land became dry. And apart from this dam we don’t know any other thing. I think it is the dam” (Woman farmer participant from Chad, personal communication, 2017). Similarly, a community leader from the Lake Chad region noted that: “the irrigation systems built along the shore for agriculture have lacked maintenance, leading to non-functional, outdated pumps”. Consequently, the canals have dried up, adversely affecting the villagers’ livelihoods (Community leader working for a local NGO across the Lake Chad region, personal communication, 2018).

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[1] Url: https://journals.plos.org/climate/article?id=10.1371/journal.pclm.0000314

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