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Tackling climate change: The Albarella island example [1]
['Augusto Zanella', 'Department Of Territorio E Sistemi Agro-Forestali', 'Tesaf', 'University Of Padova', 'Legnaro', 'Cristian Bolzonella', 'Mauro Rosatti', 'Marcegaglia Hotels Resorts', 'Rosolina', 'Rovigo']
Date: 2024-07
The problem of diet and emissions due to the food production and consumption chain is more complex. It involves cultural habits and customs and is linked to the ecological transition of agriculture[ 31 – 33 ]. If we consider Albarella’s Optimistic model, at least half of the emissions in this sector can be avoided by changing human eating habits, and by limiting the consumption of beef. Opinions on the nutritional value of meat in the human diet are still divergent [ 34 – 36 ]. This aspect is reconsidered more carefully below.
Good news: by focusing on technologies that generate electricity (without counting all the materials that would be needed to store and use that electricity, such as electric vehicle batteries or grid storage), Casey Crownhart [ 30 ] says “we have enough materials to power the world with renewable energy, we won’t run out of key ingredients for climate action” and “the total emissions from mining and processing those materials are significant, but over the next 30 years they add up to less than a year’s worth of global emissions from fossil fuels”.
Today, the annual production of solar energy is 4 TW [ 29 ]. The growth of the current production of electricity from solar sources at global level is approximately 100 GW = 0.1 TW per year. To reach the annual 14 TW needed to run our global economy, another 10 TW would be necessary, which at the rate of 0.1/year would be achieved in 100 years. These rough global estimates tell us that in 2030, only 1/10 of the global energy demand will be produced by solar installations.
For planet Earth the path remains complicated and full of pushbacks. Dividing the total energy consumption of human activities (120,000 TWh/y) by the number of hours in a year (365*24 = 8,760) Johnson Cade [ 28 ] calculated that the annual demand for electricity today would be on average 14 TW.
In other words: on a small scale and in 10 years, while having the necessary funds, with the help of incentives and the goodwill of the population, it is possible to drastically reduce emissions due to energy production and consumption. The managers of Albarella are trying to adopt the recommended measures.
We used the responses to a questionnaire and had access to administrative data recorded in the island’s past. We couldn’t get to zero emissions even by planting more than half of the island’s grassed areas with trees and switching to a beef-free diet. However, the more efficient operating model reached 1/4 of current emissions, which corresponds to values from 50-60 years ago. The result obtained with solar panels placed on all the roofs of houses could be improved. A more efficient solution is summarized in Supporting Information ( S3 Text ). These most recent estimates show that 1500 m 2 of photovoltaic panels subdivided in 4 production and self-consumption points could generate approximately 200 MWh/year. 79% of this energy production would be self-consumed, while approximately 40 MWh/year would be shared with other 3 consumption-only points. Just over 2.5 MWh/year could be sold on the market. The system would have a duration of 25 years, and the initial investment of €200k would be covered by the benefits after approximately 6 years. Theoretically, by increasing the surface area of panels (by covering the many parking spaces, for example), it would be possible to produce and sell energy to offset the emissions from the production and recycling of the panels themselves and even to absorb those remaining from the Optimistic scenario.
We collected data on the natural environment ranging from microorganisms to vegetation and soil types, and studied human activities from energy consumption, as well as transport, diet of inhabitants and the type of recycling. The forecast model could potentially benefit from considering economic parameters linked to the economic development and growth of the island. However, the management intends to improve the quality of the environment and the cultural and recreational offerings of the site without increasing the number of tourists. A more natural and beneficial lifestyle with less impact on the environment is what is sought.
4.2. Science for society statement
It makes sense to think that humans have personal priorities regarding climate change, such as health, a minimum level of economic well-being (including having a job, a home, children who are in school), and time for rest and leisure. Until most humans reach these minimums of personal satisfaction, the climate will remain at the expense of everyone else. The thought that climate affects everyone is misleading in practice. In a study just published in preprint [37], Simsek et al. illustrate the problem from an economic point of view: when climate benefits are included into the models, a positive response is only obtained in the long term, which could be too late. We could think of solving the problem with negative impact technologies, such as the direct capture of CO 2 from the air [38]. These too can generate a growth in inequalities [39], with consequent and dangerous delays in the large-scale implementation of policies against global warming.
A relatively frivolous local problem could give an idea of the complex problem to be solved at a planetary level. A population of fallow deer also lives on the island of Albarella, a species introduced in the past and which reproduces very well. Based on a recent accurate census of these animals, knowing their dietary needs and the extent of the island’s meadows, the carrying capacity of the system was calculated (347 animals). With the new plantings of trees and forests envisaged by the optimistic model of calculating the CO 2 eq balance, the deer would lose grazing surface. Furthermore, by introducing 2 foxes that could capture 26 young each year, and taking 25 adults through hunting, a Vensim model of the system predicts that today’s rapidly growing population of 270 individuals could stabilize at around 332 animals in three years. The discussion is underway among the island’s inhabitants to decide how to intervene: there are pros and cons of both, the introduction of predators and harvesting through hunting. It was also calculated that this deer population would reduce CO 2 emissions because it would slightly increase the total storage of ecosystems. Nobody thinks about this last aspect: animal-loving people can’t stand hunters, those whose gardens have been devastated by deer require the killing of some of the animals. Even ecologists disagree, because the fallow deer is an invasive species, although many people with children do not understand that such a gentle animal could be considered ’invasive’. People argue and in the meantime the deer population grows. And there are other ecological problems to monitor, such as the presence of contaminants or microplastics in water and the environment (S4 Text, 2. Punctual ecological investigations). It’s nothing compared to what occurs in wealthy countries that are already suffering the consequences of global warming: people buy air conditioners, which are machines that increase global warming. Cooling is already responsible for over seven per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions and demand for cooling is expected to triple by 2050 [40]. Or worse: they increase the part of the state budget dedicated to the purchase of weapons and bombs, or they even use them [41].
"How and what to eat" can also be a source of worry connected to global warming. With the Optimistic Albarella scenario, the net emissions (removing those stored in ecosystems) fall to ¼ of current emissions, from 15.4 in 2023 to 3.4 kt CO 2 eq y-1 in 2032. Those generated by human food consumption decrease from 6.9 to 2.9 kt CO 2 eq y-1 in the same period and correspond to 85% of total net emissions (2.9 on 3.4 kt CO 2 eq y-1: Fig 4 and Table 4).
At a planetary level, it is a figure linked to the global food-system emissions (15.8 GtCO 2 eq [31], equating to 20% of the world’s greenhouse gases emissions in 2023 [31,32]. In an Optimistic scenario of an Albarella-like planet Earth detailed in Supporting information (S1 Text), the net emissions (removing those stored in ecosystems) fall to 1/5 of current emissions; those due to human nutrition with a low impact diet (60% Mediterranean, 30% vegetarian and 10% vegan) reach 55% (= 7.1/12.9, Fig A in S1 Text, Table A in S1 Text) of the total net emissions.
These low values emissions due to human nutrition correspond to minima below which it is impossible to go. Beyond the fact that they are questionable values (is it realistic and judicious/sensible to think of eliminating beef from the human diet?) they are threshold values that reveal a crucial meaning: even reducing emissions to values of 20-25% of current ones, at least half of these (10-12.5%) are due to incompressible human nutrition.
For completeness we report that the optimistic models considered for Albarella and for Albarella-like planet allow ecosystem storage equal to 69% (7.5 out of 10.9 kt CO 2 y-1) and 63% (21.6 out of 34.5 Gt CO 2 y-1) of the total emissions respectively. The terrestrial storage (sink) estimated by Friendlingstein et al. (data 2021) [42] with dynamic models of global vegetation amounts to 10.6 ± 3.6 Gt CO 2 y-1 (approximately 28% of total; for comparison, the one reported by the same authors for the oceanic system is worth 29% of the total). The Albarella-like planet ecosystems’ sink (21.6 Gt CO 2 y-1) is decidedly superior, which could ideally be the one of a restored planet biodiversity (twice the current one) and that could support a functional and long-lasting living Earth system [43,44].
Calculating the human carrying capacity of terrestrial ecosystems is more complex than for animals because this considers living standards, technological advances, cooperation and economic development. The concept is simple, but it involves ethical and religious obstacles and limits [45].
To people who would like to go and live on the nearby moon (or stars), we recommend the film entitled “First Man” by Damien Chazelle [46]. It illustrates the courage that few astronauts had just to walk some hours on the lunar soil, leaving us to imagine how far we are just now from being able to go and live up there for years or to go even farther. It is easier to continue living on our planet, adapt our style of life and produce energy in a sustainable way. For those who want recent scientific explanations on the health difficulties of astronauts, we recommend Cao’s article [47].
Recently, to understand microbiome dynamics during the path of adaptation to new resources, Bisschop et al. [48] performed an evolutionary experiment on spider mites and their host plant. After 12 generations, the spider mite performance (number of eggs and longevity) was different and clearly correlated with microbiome composition. Microbiomes are involved in most vital processes, such as immune response, detoxification, and digestion. If it works in us as in spiders, we humans are closely related to all the rest of the living, without knowing it.
Today, we evolve in a living mantle (the biosphere) which is transforming the planet [49–51]. We are part of it [52]. On average, although with large fluctuations, the biodiversity of this mantle has continued to grow, from the absence of living beings at the time of the formation of our planet 4.6 billion years ago, to countless species today. We know that many organic molecules are present in sidereal space. Since Miller Urey’s experiment [53], we also know that from very simple molecules (present on site or arriving from space) placed in a primordial soup (imitation of a possible environment on the planet at the time of its formation, a primordial “soil”) can form the organic molecules that make up living cells. Then, fossils revealed that increasingly complex organisms adapted to the different environments of our planet emerged and composed all the planet’s ecosystems. These combined transformations of biodiversity and the environment, which also produced the human species, are still in action. This may explain why instinctively, when humans observe nature and the universe, they feel deep emotions [54]. Unconsciously, humans know that they depend on this biodiversity (Fig 5).
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TIFF original image Download: Fig 5. New horizons. Upper part of the figure by Karine Bonneval, left: “Eating the Soil” where a human couple finds an eatable magical soil that takes them to a higher stage and transforms them into half-plant-half-human hybrid; right: “Se planter”, “plant yourself”, which in French also means “to make mistakes”. This is an invitation to imagine yourself rooted in the soil. Lower part, photographs by Augusto Zanella: the Po River transports woody materials which are then deposited on the banks of the river delta by sea waves. This phenomenon concerns the beach of Albarella and Caleri. From an ecological point of view, this is energy which gradually nourishes the dune system (underneath this wood, the soil becomes relatively dark and rich in organic matter, photo on the right). We would like to leave these dead woods in place in areas of the island with a more natural use.
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000418.g005
Permanent outdoor artistic exhibition on the island of Albarella recall to the spirit the senses of rebirth, fear, listening, admiration and respect for mystery. Environmental Audit (2010) at the Museum of Contemporary Art in Sydney focused on an historical question: how the effects and costs of human culture can be measured? (Fig 6).
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TIFF original image Download: Fig 6. Artistic views. Left: “White Sea” by Nils Udo, German artist. Carrara marble eggs in a nest surrounded by an artificial hill 27 meters long and 4 meters high, covered with pampas grass, which shows a white panicle that resembles the foaming of a sea wave. Right: “The Big Ear”, a sound installation by Officinadidue, the art collective Vera Bonaventura & Roberto Mainardi, Italian artists. Lengh min. 5.11”. Performing every day at 10 am and 7 pm, on Albarella lake Palancana. Sound here:
https://www.officinadidue.it/the-big-ear, visited on March 25 2024. Bottom: Environmental Audit, Historical balance, resources used and cultural good. How the effects and costs of human culture can be measured? More information in a graphical publication about the project in Ihlein 2010 [55].
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000418.g006
The DDT is not just a dismissed poison. In human brains, the "Delay Discounting Task" (DDT) measures individuals’ preference for immediate small rewards versus large but delayed rewards. A large proportion of humans belong to the RED archetype, stressed people preferring immediate small rewards [56]. Their numbers will probably grow with increasing social tensions due to global warming.
Microorganisms are widely unknown organisms. We move in a cloud of microorganisms which are everywhere, in the air and clouds, in soil, in water, on our hands, etc [57–59]. We also have them in our digestion tract: they eat what we ingest, and we must live off their remains. They are related to the genesis of planet life [60], and they built and continue to modify the planet soil [61–63]. They are living beings intimately linked to the climate [49,64], they make the climate [65,66], a climate we are still unable to manage. Finally, all higher life forms are dependent on the activity of microorganisms [64].
Considering the enormous quantities of greenhouse gases accumulated in the atmosphere, the only solution seems to be CO2 capture and storage. These are called Direct Air Carbon Capture and Storage (DACCS) technologies. Several problems remain to be solved [67].
A note on PNR (point of no return) [68]. PNR corresponds in 2100 to a maximum of 2°C of average air temperature above the temperature of the pre-industrial era. Beyond this threshold, there will be a sharp decrease in arable land (sea level rise and drought) and consequent accentuation of human migrations with what we can imagine as disease [69]. The planet’s climate is endowed with a certain inertia (delay in the manifestation of the taken actions), and recent models predict that with a growth in renewable energy production of 2% per year, the PNR will be reached in 2035; if, on the other hand, the growth of renewable energy reaches 5%, it will be touched in 2042. In the Albarella models, we suggested growth of renewable energy of 10% per year. If such a ratio were carried out at the planet level, the PNR would move away to 2050. We know that the temperature increases by one degree centigrade for every 1000 Gt of CO 2 added to the air. If the whole Earth planet acted like an Albarella-like planet (a growth of 500 Gt in 10 years, which means an increase of 0.5°C: Fig A, Table A in S1 Text), the temperature would stabilize below the 2°C limit (actual level 1.5°C + 0.5°C).
Remember the economic shutdown due to COVID 19? Well, a continuous reduction in emissions of that magnitude (10-20%) [70] and for the next 30 years would be capable of bringing us in 2050 within the 2° C limit. Recent published data says that we are far from this goal [71].
The ecological crisis we are currently experiencing [72] can end if transformations similar to the one presented here take shape on the planet. These may begin on an individual scale, at home, or in small areas, and become more and more numerous over vast areas, villages or towns, then regions, until they cover the entire Earth. That would be great, right? That’s why we started to believe in it.
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[1] Url:
https://journals.plos.org/climate/article?id=10.1371/journal.pclm.0000418
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