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Is Netanyahu preparing for a return to war in Gaza? [1]

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Date: 2025-01

An early element of the six-week Gaza ceasefire agreement was that Palestinians from northern Gaza whom the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) had forced to move south would be able to return. That was meant to happen after Hamas released the second group of hostages last weekend but was delayed for 48 hours.

When it was finally allowed, early on Monday 27 January, the sudden mass movement of people was extraordinary. Before the war, the majority of Gazans lived in the north of the territory, around perhaps 1.3 million out of a total population of 2.3 million. Because of IDF actions, and especially the massive use of air power, close to a million had moved with just 400,000 staying behind.

The near-desperation to return, whether or not their homes had even survived, was such that more than 200,000 had streamed back by noon on the first day alone, with many tens of thousands more returning to the area in the days that followed.

Although Binyamin Netanyahu’s Israeli government maintained its ban on allowing foreign journalists to access and report from northern Gaza, the many interviews by local journalists indicated that once back “home”, whatever form that home now took, Gazans would refuse to move again.

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Then, on the second day of the exodus, the Jordanian armed forces were able to establish a shuttle of 16 helicopters to deliver urgent aid, especially medical supplies.

The at least temporary establishment of this air bridge, combined with the mass movement of people and their determination not to be forced out again, all gave the impression that it would be difficult for the Israelis to go back to war. That sense was increased as many hundreds of trucks were at last able to deliver aid into Gaza.

There is a further element to recognise in this. Ever since the start of the war more than 15 months ago, there has been plenty of coverage of the suffering and destruction in Gaza in media outlets across the Middle East, but mainstream media coverage in Western countries has been highly variable and often sparse.

That coverage, though, has surged in the past few days. BBC journalist Fergal Keane and a camera operator were able to travel into Gaza on board the first Jordanian aid helicopter and subsequently drew attention to the devastation they saw from the air. Others were able to capture the sight of hundreds of thousands of people walking many miles while loaded with all the possessions they could carry. Many feel this coverage makes it yet more difficult for Netanyahu to return to war.

If that is true then a collective sigh of relief might come from the many more millions of people who have come to support the Palestinian cause since the war started, but there is a need for considerable caution. Well-informed sources within Israel suggest that the Netanyahu government has simply not changed its posture and still wants to achieve victory – though ministers have varying ideas of what this should look like – despite Hamas surviving.

The wider determination of the Israeli government to regain control of the situation is shown by its ban on the UN Relief and Works Agency (UNWRA), which was passed by Parliament in October and came into effect this week.

UNWRA’s work in Palestine dates back to 1949, when the UN helped hundreds of thousands of Palestinian refugees who were forcibly displaced from their homes and land by Israel.

In recent years, the agency’s work has extended far beyond providing relief supplies, having been at the forefront of the provision of schools and health services in Gaza, the West Bank and East Jerusalem. Palestinians are widely regarded as having high levels of education and UNWRA has probably been more responsible for that than any other organisation.

If Israel persists with the termination of UNRWA – which will ban Israeli authorities from contacting the agency and ban the agency from operating in Palestine – it will be the most significant non-military indicator of its long-term determination to maintain control. It is not yet known to what extent, or even how, the ban will be enforced.

Then there is Donald Trump’s statement last weekend about clearing Palestinians out of Gaza. This comment was far from a spur of the moment outburst; it was repeated during the week and senior Israeli officials have reportedly indicated that it was made in the full knowledge of Netanyahu’s government. The suggestion also aligns with the views of Bezalel Smotrich’s far-right Religious Zionism Party, which provides the government with its wafer-thin majority in the Knesset.

While Trump spoke of Jordan and Egypt as possible destinations for Gazans to relocate to, even distant Indonesia is being muted as a temporary location, an anonymous official working to facilitate the transition between the Biden and Trump administrations reportedly told NBC.

Netanyahu has made abundantly clear that he is prepared to continue the war, claiming last weekend that “both outgoing US President Joe Biden and incoming President Donald Trump provided assurances that Israel would be supported in resuming hostilities if negotiations on a second phase of the deal prove ‘futile’.”

Further assurance for the Israeli prime minister came from Trump’s decision a week into the ceasefire to resume deliveries of powerful 2,000lb bombs to Israel, which had been paused by Biden.

For now, Hamas has named the next three hostages it plans to release, who will be handed over this weekend, and negotiations on the next phase of the ceasefire are due to start on 3 February. Trump has invited Netanyahu to meet him at the White House the following day, the first foreign leader to do so since the inauguration.

That meeting is likely to determine whether the ceasefire lasts or whether Netanyahu then forces some kind of crisis that allows him to go back to war. Even he may now accept that Hamas cannot be destroyed, but if Trump backs him on Gaza it is safe to assume that one subject for the White House discussion will be what to do about Iran.

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[1] Url: https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/gaza-ceasefire-return-to-war-donald-trump-netanyahu/

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