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Ukraine drone attacks on Russia likely to boost Putin’s support [1]

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Date: 2023-08

The two drone strikes on Moscow business district towers earlier this week did little serious damage but the symbolic impact was of a different order. This is not least because they hit the heart of the Russian capital and were part of a pattern of armed drone attacks affecting government and military targets spread across much of southwest Russia.

The strikes have been few compared with the many hundreds of drones and missiles fired from Russia into Ukraine, and casualties were minimal. In Ukraine, over 9,000 civilians have been killed and 16,646 injured, with the UN making it clear that “the actual figures are considerably higher”.

Where the recent Ukrainian attacks into Russia may be significant, though, is if they make the position of the Putin regime more difficult. That, in turn, relates to wider developments in the conflict.

To be specific, within a month of the start of the conflict in February last year, a violent stalemate had evolved. Ukraine could be sure of increased NATO support if Russian forces made substantial gains sufficient to threaten the stability of the Kyiv government, but Russia could always fall back on the threat of weapons of mass destruction if it faced a war on its own territory.

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This had been the position until June of this year, when the long-planned Ukrainian offensive started, intended to put sufficient pressure on Moscow to accept a negotiated settlement on terms favourable to Kyiv.

As of the start of August, this offensive has focused on extending Ukrainian control of territory through the Russian-controlled strip of land from Crimea in the south to the northern end of the Luhansk oblast. Three loosely linked offensives each aim to do this: in the east, close to the town of Luhansk; in the southeast towards the coast at Mariupol; and further to the south towards Berdiansk.

The overall aim is to isolate Crimea from land routes to Russia, making it far more difficult for the Kremlin to maintain control of the region. There are three routes from Crimea to Russia, each incorporating road and rail links. One of these links, the Kerch Bridge, was only built in the past five years. This bridge has proved vulnerable to Ukrainian attack, and there have also been recent attacks on a second link, the railway bridge at Chonhar.

If Ukraine could force a land corridor directly from Ukrainian territory through to the Sea of Azov, which is bordered by Crimea, Ukraine and Russia, that would be far more serious for Putin than the damage to the two bridges, potentially changing the whole balance of the conflict, with Russian supplies to Crimea severely hindered.

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[1] Url: https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/ukrainian-offensive-drone-attacks-russia-grain-africa-putin-support/

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