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Now Prigozhin is gone, what happens to Wagner? [1]

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Date: 2023-08

Control of Russia’s private military company Wagner is likely to fall to the country’s Ministry of Defence, with several Wagner veterans already having signed with the ministry or its other affiliated military firms, sources within the group have said.

But questions remain about how far the Russian MoD will be able to integrate with private military company (PMC) Wagner, which has operations across the Middle East and Africa, with answers likely varying from country to country.

It is a week since the plane crash that killed Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin and a number of other top brass from the controversial military outfit.

PMC Wagner’s defining feature was a lack of any formal structure. Wagner was a social phenomenon as well as a product of Vladimir Putin’s system of governance and international demand. Prigozhin thrived in an environment where Russia’s political elites had disproportionate freedom to pursue foreign policy, and his PMC was well placed to profit from global trends in the privatisation of warfare.

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While Wagner shared much in common with past PMCs like South Africa’s Executive Outcomes or Blackwater in the US, it more reflected a historic Russian system of governance in miniature.

In the centre sat Prigozhin, surrounded by a loyal cadre who fanned out in search of opportunity. Guidance was not always forthcoming, and it was common for two or more teams inside the organisation to compete with each other. Prigozhin ruled at the strategic level. At the tactical level, Wagner’s Council of Commanders was the foundational mechanism for decision-making.

This mechanism ensures that Wagner could maintain existing operations without the centre for some time. But in the week that followed Prigozhin’s death, the Russian MoD under Sergey Shoigu has been moving quickly to alter the status quo.

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[1] Url: https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/odr/yevgeny-prigozhin-pmc-wagner-group-russia-ministry-defence-sergey-shoigu/

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