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Prigozhin mutiny highlights US power in Ukraine [1]
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Date: 2023-07
A week after the start of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s abortive mutiny/coup attempt/rebellion/march on Moscow, the situation within the Russian security complex remains as murky as ever and liable to change drastically at any time.
What has become clear, though, and should cause little surprise, is that much of the output of the US intelligence machine is focused on the conflict, giving Joe Biden a persistent advantage in determining the course of the war.
The indication from multiple sources that US agencies had been closely following the activities of Prigozhin and the Wagner group, and were well aware of what was planned, is just one example of this. Agencies’ knowledge went right down to the timing of the mutiny itself, but few people were informed of this, not just among allies but also within the State Department, Pentagon and other arms of the US government.
US intelligence capabilities have played an important role right from the start of the war on 24 February last year. Putin’s original aim was to take Kyiv and install a pro-Russian government, while occupying some key parts of eastern Ukraine, many of them annexed days before the war started.
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Kyiv was crucial and needed to be occupied within as short a time as possible. An airborne attack on the Hostomel airfield was key to this. Hostomel is part of the Antonov plant, which has produced some of the world’s largest military transport aircraft, and the airfield has a very long runway and large areas of tarmac. Russian troops tried to take control of it right at the start of the conflict, but the Ukraine army knew what was coming – not least from US intelligence sources – and fought for 24 hours to delay its capture.
That crucial time meant that the Russian element of surprise was lost, and Kyiv was never taken. One of the first columns in this series covering this period summed up the first few days of the conflict:
Barely three days into the war, it was clear that elements of the assault were faltering. Kyiv was under attack but not yet threatened, the Russian air force had not got full control of the airspace, with the Ukraine air force still attacking Russian armour. Even progress in the eastern sector was not matched by a full breakout from Crimea. Meanwhile, the extent of EU and NATO unity was almost certainly far higher than the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, and his inner power group had anticipated, leaving a very angry leader threatening nuclear escalation if NATO came anywhere near direct confrontation.
It later became clear that the Ukrainian authorities were receiving continual reports from the US intelligence system that gave them a clear idea of what the Russian armed forces were planning, day to day. This has remained the case throughout the conflict, with the data on Prigozhin’s plans being just the most recent example.
We are now in the position where Putin’s war aims have failed. The Ukrainian government will not be forced from office and the conflict stands every chance of dragging on for many months and quite possibly years. The 14-month violent stalemate continues since NATO will ensure Ukraine cannot lose, but Putin can threaten use of weapons of mass destruction if Russia is losing. It is worth remembering that less than a week after the Russian forces began to get bogged down, Putin delivered a speech warning of just such an escalation.
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[1] Url:
https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/prigozhin-mutiny-ukraine-war-putin-us-intelligence-biden-long-war/
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