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It’s make or break time for Nagorno-Karabakh’s future [1]

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Date: 2023-07

The year-long negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan on a peace agreement have reached a critical moment. Since May, leaders and their representatives have regularly convened in various capitals worldwide. And today, delegates are due to begin several days of talks in Washington DC.

While some of those involved acknowledge progress, stating that almost half of the document has already been agreed, the path to a successful end remains distant. The main point of disagreement remains the lack of compromise on the key and most difficult issue – the fate of ethnic Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh.

This issue has been a central element in the Armenian-Azerbaijan conflict, which has remained unresolved since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Nagorno-Karabakh is a small enclave populated by Armenians located within the territory of Azerbaijan. Following the war in the 1990s, the Armenian side emerged victorious and controlled territories extending more than twice the size of Soviet era boundaries of the region for over 25 years. After the defeat in the 2020 war, around 120,000 local Armenians reside in a much smaller territory patrolled by Russian peacekeepers. All the territories around the enclave are now controlled by Azerbaijan.

Over the past year, the Armenian leadership has made significant concessions, such as officially recognising Azerbaijan's territorial integrity, including Nagorno-Karabakh. But in order to proceed with the peace treaty Armenia is insisting it includes special rights and ensures the security of Nagorno-Karabakh’s Armenian population. International mediators also want special measures due to decades of conflict and the recent 2020 war that claimed over 7,000 lives in just six weeks. The de facto leadership of Nagorno-Karabakh itself continues to assert its independence, even though the entity remains unrecognised by any state in the world.

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The outcome of the talks largely hinges on what stance Azerbaijan will take. For Baku, any options considered must align with the objective of securing complete control over the Armenian-populated territory. It rejects reopening discussions on the enclave’s status, which persisted for almost 30 years without results.

International mediators see a way out by giving Baku and Stepanakert a chance to start talks on ways to continue living next to each other. The proposal was first put forward by European mediators a year ago and was promptly supported by their American counterparts. In April, the Russian foreign minister also spoke in support, but there have been no signs yet that Moscow is ready to push for the process to move forward.

Those involved in this week’s Armenian-Azerbaijani peace talks say if direct dialogue does begin between Baku and Sepanakert, Yerevan and Baku will be able to proceed with signing the peace deal in the near future.

What could Baku-Stepanakert talks look like?

Both the president of Azerbaijan and the de facto leadership of Nagorno-Karabakh have spoken about their readiness to consider such negotiations. But many elements of the future process still remain unclear, including the format, agenda, location of the meetings and role of outside mediators. These factors can significantly influence not only the prospect of a deal but also its effectiveness and potential success.

Stepanakert is probably the party most interested in launching these talks. The last seven months have been particularly difficult for the local population. It started with the Baku-backed activists that blockaded the only road that connects the enclave with Armenia. That halted the movement of people and led to shortages of food products and medical supplies. In April, the situation deteriorated further, when Baku installed a checkpoint on this road.

In June, following a brief exchange of fire, Azerbaijan closed the checkpoint even for humanitarian cargo such as food and medication, which was being delivered to Nagorno-Karabakh by Russian peacekeepers and the International Red Cross (ICRC). On top of this, for over four months the local Armenians have faced a shortage of electricity supply and no natural gas due to the damage of the supply routes from Armenia that cross over the Azerbaijani-controlled territory in the conflict zone. As of Sunday, the ICRC is now able to conduct medical evacuations, though deliveries of food and medicine are still cut off.

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[1] Url: https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/odr/armenia-azerbaijan-nagorno-karabakh-talks-washington/

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