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Sudan: resources grab but no democracy moves likely after war [1]
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Date: 2023-05
For the past two weeks, international news in much of the European media has been dominated by efforts to extract nationals from the violence in Sudan. Coverage is likely to fade as the evacuation slows down and the media moves on to other conflicts. There may, in fact, be a far greater movement of Sudanese refugees desperate to get out of the country, but this will attract minimal international attention.
The focus on the evacuation has sidelined the much longer-term issues facing Sudan, and foreign states and sub-state actors will be watching developments with a keen interest, especially if the disorder persists until one of the two generals vying for control finally succeeds.
The current violence has its origins in the ousting of long-time autocrat Omar Hassan Al-Bashir back in 2019, after nearly three decades in power.
Long before he was removed, Bashir had been under investigation by the International Criminal Court, with arrest warrants issued in 2009 and 2010 for crimes against humanity and genocide, principally for actions in the western province of Darfur.
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These led nowhere and his regime remained in power for another decade. Then, public protests began towards the end of 2018 against economic conditions and their impact on living standards. These were ignored but rapidly coalesced into huge, peaceful anti-government demonstrations, culminating in a massive protest early in April 2019. This turned into an extraordinary sit-in by thousands of protesters outside the army HQ. With the police and much of the army opposing repression, Bashir’s position became untenable and he was forced from office by the army six days after the sit-in began.
Divide and rule had been a key tactic of Bashir’s regime, and his setting up of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in 2013 to counter the power of the army was part of this strategy. Drawn largely from the Janjaweed militias active in Darfur, the RSF became the main means of governmental control of Darfur, a devastating conflict that has seen 2.5 million people displaced and 300,000 killed.
After the coup there was an uneasy sharing of power between two generals, the head of the regular army, Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, and the leader of the RSF, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as ‘Hemedti’, whose huge family wealth gives him an independent source of power and influence.
It is the rivalry between the army and the RSF, partly over control of sectors of the economy, that tipped over into outright violence two weeks ago.
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[1] Url:
https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/sudan-conflict-evacuations-al-bashir-democracy-resources-competition/
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