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ICC: Putin charges could give court more authority over West [1]
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Date: 2023-04
In the space of a week, three very different events have occurred that have done much to shape the future of the war in Ukraine. One is the decision of the International Criminal Court (ICC) to bring war crimes charges against Vladimir Putin; the second is the three-day visit of China’s president Xi Jingping to Moscow; and the third is the 20th anniversary of the start of the Iraq War and the end of the Saddam Hussein regime. All three are set against a background of a bitter and devastating war in Ukraine that could well continue for many months or even years.
As to the war itself, Western states – and especially the United States – continue to provide a wide range of weapons and materiel, certainly enough to make it difficult to envisage a Russian victory. Yet the degree of Western support isn’t sufficient to allow Ukraine to force the Russian military out of eastern Ukraine, still less Crimea. While Ukrainian military forces are bearing the brunt of the war, they are simply not getting sufficient military supplies to put them in a winning position. The whole pace of the war continues to be dictated by Washington.
The Russians, meanwhile, have been mobilising and preparing for a long conflict. But while very small advances have been made around Bakhmut, their prospects for gaining territory are limited. And while it may be possible to mobilise many tens of thousands of young men and put them through basic training prior to deployment, once in the combat zone casualties have been high.
It is in this context that the Chinese leader’s extensive meetings with Putin and his senior leadership is significant. In one sense, China can come out of the conflict well, whoever wins.
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If Russia is forced to settle, it would weaken its claim to a leadership role in a new ‘Eurasia’ entity, an alliance centred on Russia and Central Asian states, together with China. While that would damage Russia, China would be seen as the clear leader of an evolving post-Cold War alliance, a position it had won primarily by maintaining neutrality in actions, if not in rhetoric.
If, on the other hand, Russia eventually reaches a settlement that preserves its control of Crimea and most of Donbas, then it could claim a degree of equality with China in an invigorated alliance clearly leading the world towards a new Eurasian world order.
Looking at the outcome of Xi’s visit, which was cordial and with little sign of serious difference, China probably prefers the latter outcome. After all, the dismal performance of Russia’s armed forces shows that the country only retains superpower status by means of its strategic nuclear weapons, whereas China already has a much larger economy and wider influence across the Global South.
The advantage to China of an alliance with Russia would be territorial gain, as the latter would become part of an entity stretching from the Pacific to the Atlantic, with China the senior partner, whatever Putin or his successor might think.
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[1] Url:
https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/international-criminal-court-putin-war-crimes-ukraine-iraq-wars-media-coverage/
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