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Ukraine, US and NATO: Putin may be prepared for never-ending war [1]
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Date: 2023-02
Three weeks from the first anniversary of the start of Russia’s ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine and there is no end in sight. Russia’s ‘short war’ failed from day one and has now degenerated into an appallingly violent stalemate of relentless killing and destruction, which looks set to continue for many months and possibly years.
In early November there seemed to be a chance that the Russian leadership might opt for talks, having been forced to withdraw from the south Ukraine city of Kherson, but that came to nothing. Instead, Vladimir Putin has mobilised many tens of thousands more young men, who are quickly being fed into the fighting. This past week has seen a substantial increase in artillery barrages and troop movements and there are strong suspicions that this is a prelude to a full-scale offensive in the spring.
Putin can still rely on support at home, especially from older Russians who recall Western governments’ contempt for Russia after the end of the Cold War. He can even claim that this is now a NATO/Russian war – feeding a narrative he has been using for more than two decades.
Even so, the view among most Western security analysts is that Putin’s forces are losing. So shared across the Western media has this view been, it is close to being received wisdom. But is it right? Is the substantial range of NATO weaponry now being supplied to Ukraine sufficient to ensure victory? What would ‘victory’ mean, and would there be a risk of escalation, perhaps even to chemical and nuclear weapons?
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The weapons are certainly flowing in, mainly from the United States but many other NATO countries are contributing too. France is looking to expand its support to include fighter jets if certain conditions are met and NATO is even encouraging non-NATO members such as South Korea to get involved.
Over the past two months, the range of NATO equipment being offered to Ukraine has expanded to include hundreds of infantry fighting vehicles from the US, Sweden, France and Germany. As of last week, this has been extended to main battle tanks (MBTs) – Leopards from Germany, Abrams from the US and Challengers from the UK.
In practice, such supplies will have little impact for months, and even then there will be problems. Using the armoured fighting vehicles and tanks will require knowing how to handle what will amount to seven different, complex systems needing maintenance, spares, transport and crew training.
The US Army wants to put time and effort into training the Ukrainian military in integrated warfare, combining intelligence, wider use of drones, more joint air force/army collaboration, plus maintenance and repair and other factors to create a more efficient fighting force. That takes time, but the US decision stems from the expectation that the fighting will go on through to next winter and beyond.
Nevertheless, US president Joe Biden is holding back on some weapons that would give Ukraine a considerable advantage over the Russian forces. According to The Economist, Russia has withdrawn key command centres to be out of range of the American HIMARS rocket launchers that helped Ukraine so much last autumn. To counter that, Ukraine wants the much longer-range ATACMS system, which could reach the whole of Crimea and well into Russia. Biden has so far refused, and will not even supply a rather longer-range version of the HIMARS rockets, reportedly to limit the risk of escalation, though there are signs that his administration is warming to the idea of giving Ukraine weapons that can hit any part of Crimea.
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[1] Url:
https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/ukraine-war-putin-us-nato-weapons-victory-stalemate-long-game/
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