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Ukraine: will US and NATO caution over weapons supplies lead to long war? [1]
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Date: 2023-01
When the Ukrainian army recaptured Kherson three weeks ago, there seemed some prospect of the war moving into a final phase that could end with sufficient Russian retreats to make some kind of negotiated settlement possible.
But the mood has since changed, with increasing insistence from Ukraine that all territory taken by Russia since 2015 be returned, including Crimea. This would require such a degree of capitulation that Vladimir Putin might seriously threaten an escalation to weapons of mass destruction.
This makes it unlikely that talks will get under way any time soon – but there are other paths of war available as winter encroaches, and one recent development may mark the start of one in particular.
After Russia’s withdrawal from Kherson, the assumption was that the Kremlin would organise its frontline troops into defensive positions, dig in for the winter months and begin the process of preparing for a spring offensive next March. Instead, it has opted for a substantial offensive operation, mainly around the town of Bakhmut in the Donetsk oblast.
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The Russian army has had substantial forces deployed there since May, but they have had limited progress in making gains, with a high rate of casualties. Yet in recent weeks, especially since the loss of Kherson, substantial reinforcements have been sent in, leading to some of the most intense ground warfare of the whole war.
A determined and continual onslaught by the Russian forces has been met with a rigorous Ukrainian defence – the result being high casualties on both sides.
A US press report described the scene during a day of fighting earlier this week: “For almost an hour, the stream of Ukrainian casualties in the eastern city of Bakhmut seemed unending: ambulances, an armoured personnel carrier and private vehicles all screamed to a halt, one after another, and disgorged the wounded in front of the city’s only military hospital.”
That the Russian forces have very little to show for their efforts and burgeoning losses has not deterred them. Why they continue is unclear, with the Institute for the Study of War writing: “Russian efforts around Bakhmut indicate that Russian forces have fundamentally failed to learn from previous high-casualty campaigns concentrated on objectives of limited operational or strategic significance.”
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[1] Url:
https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/russia-ukraine-bakhmut-weapons-supplies-low-level-war-prospects/
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