This unaltered story [1] was originally published on OpenDemocracy.org.
License [2]: Creative Commons 4.0 - Attributions/No Derivities/Int'l.
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Rethink migration policy for the vulnerable to protect prosperity of all

By:   []

Date: 2021-11

Goal No.2 on the COP 26 agenda is: “Adapt to protect communities and natural habitats… to avoid loss of homes, livelihoods and even lives.” Better late than never, for such things are already happening.

Thirty million people around the world were displaced from their homes in 2020 by floods, storms, droughts, wildfires and other weather-related hazards. Homes and livelihoods have been lost on all continents, in countries rich and poor alike.

If no concerted action is taken to reduce greenhouse emissions and limit global warming to no more than 1.5oC over pre-industrial levels, the frequency and severity of weather hazards will grow rapidly, and so, too will the number of people on the move. This is the first goal on the COP 26 agenda.

If we continue on our current path, which leads to 2.5oC warming or more by the end of this century, the outcome will be catastrophic. The World Bank projects that by 2050, up to 216 million people in low-income countries will be at risk of displacement, while hundreds of millions of people in low-lying coastal towns and cities around the world will have to relocate due to rising sea levels.

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The risk of flood-related displacements worldwide is also expected to grow by 50% for every degree of warming. Water scarcity and shocks to food supplies are almost certain on a warming planet with a global population anticipated to exceed nine billion people by mid-century. This is not a future to bestow upon our children and grandchildren.

The COP 26 agenda frames adaptation as being a need for better infrastructure and early-warning systems, but successful adaptation requires much more than this – it means the rethinking of migration policy.

Lack of resources for victims

Researchers know a lot about climate-related population movements – how they emerge, how they play out and how to respond to them. To start, they are context-specific and multidirectional. This means that a given climate hazard may generate a variety of responses, depending on the physical characteristics of the hazard itself, the damage it causes to housing and livelihoods and on the capacity of households, communities and institutions to respond and adapt.

Floods, for example, typically generate short-term displacement and short-distance migration, with people returning home and rebuilding so long as it is feasible to do so. Droughts emerge more slowly, and allow greater time for adaptation through other means, but once these are exhausted, flows start to emerge of young, wage-seeking workers out of affected areas.

Displacement patterns following extreme storms depend heavily on the extent of damage to housing stocks and infrastructure and on the availability of institutional support for rebuilding. Yet even in the wealthiest nations, there are limits to institutional adaptive capacity, as is being experienced by people in Louisiana, who remain displaced more than one year after hurricanes destroyed their homes.
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[1] Url: https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/pandemic-border/rethink-migration-policy-for-the-vulnerable-to-protect-prosperity-of-all/
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