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Afghanistan’s future path to be determined by a corridor of power
By:   []
Date: None

Two apparently separate developments in the past few days could go a long way to determining the future of Afghanistan. One is a meeting in the Chinese city of Tianjin between the Taliban’s political chief, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, and the Chinese foreign minister, Wang Yi, at China’s invitation. The other is the Taliban taking control of Badakhshan Province in Afghanistan.

The background to this is that, with the US pull-out from Afghanistan nearing completion, the working assumption of most states in the region is that the current Kabul government will not last long. The Taliban now control most of rural Afghanistan and also several key border crossings.

The crossings give them control of many highways and also an increased revenue source. For example, the recently captured Spin Boldak border crossing into Pakistan could easily bring in $1 million a week in freight taxes.

Warlords re-emerging

There are reports that the Taliban are still prepared to make a political settlement, and that may be possible, since going the military route could cause thousands of deaths and drag on through the coming winter. Warlords are already re-emerging, and some ethnic groups, such as the Hazara, are forming their own defensive militias to oppose further Taliban advances.

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Because of this, and even given the success so far, a settlement does have its attractions. However, it would require a major, if not the majority, role in governance of the entire country, and even then would be seen by the Taliban as merely a step on the way to complete control.

That could be their bottom line, but given the progress they have made across rural Afghanistan so far this year, a collapse of government forces and then of the government itself cannot be ruled out before winter. That will be one calculation made by the more influential of the neighbouring countries – Iran, Russia, India, Pakistan and China – with China the one to watch.

These countries will also be concerned with US policy but it is clear that the US is pursuing “remote warfare” and is likely to intervene only if the Taliban allow a serious emergence of al-Qaida and Isis elements. Even then, the response will be centred around airstrikes, armed drone attacks and selective use of special forces and CIA personnel.

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