(C) Ohio Capital Journal
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Don't write off Ohio, political science professors say • Ohio Capital Journal [1]

['David J. Jackson', 'Ph.D.', 'Dominic D. Wells', 'David Dewitt', 'Marilou Johanek', 'More From Author', 'March', '.Wp-Block-Co-Authors-Plus-Coauthors.Is-Layout-Flow', 'Class', 'Wp-Block-Co-Authors-Plus']

Date: 2025-03-26

David J. Jackson is a Professor at Bowling Green State University, and Dominic D. Wells is an Associate Professor at Bowling Green State University

The 2026 elections offer Ohio Democrats a great chance to show that they can win statewide and change the political narrative in the Buckeye State.

First, the major executive offices of the state such as governor, attorney general, and secretary of state are open races. In the absence of an incumbent, elections become more competitive, so Democrats have a unique opportunity to compete for these offices without the headwinds produced by someone who is already doing the job seeking reelection.

Second, Donald Trump will not be on the ballot. Trump has carried Ohio all three times he has run for president, most recently carrying the state by 11% in 2024. His endorsements still matter a lot in the Buckeye State, but his not being on the ballot could be enough to keep some soft Republican supporters home. Successful presidential candidates bring with them the coattail effect, where their candidacy helps the members of the party down the ballot. Though the widespread coattail effect of Trump is debatable, Republicans have done particularly well in Ohio when Trump is on the ballot. For example, Republican challenger Jim Renacci lost to incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown in the 2018 midterm election during Trump’s first term, but Republican challenger Bernie Moreno defeated Brown in the race for the Senate seat in 2024.

Third, the party that controls the presidency usually performs poorly in midterm elections. There have been few exceptions to this rule in the past 100 years. In 2018, the Republican Party lost 40 seats in the House. It is reasonable to expect that Republicans will underperform in 2026 compared with 2024. While the surge/decline theory usually is considered in the context of Congressional elections, it has also been considered with regard to state elections.

Some new polling from the Bowling Green State University Democracy and Public Policy Research Network sheds light on the attitudes of Ohio registered voters, and there may be some good news for Democrats.

The survey of 800 Ohio registered voters was conducted by YouGov and is weighted to the 2024 election results. Therefore, for example, the respondents report voting for Trump over Harris 54% to 44% and Moreno over Brown by 50% to 48%.

What does the data tell us?

First, Gov. Mike DeWine is not particularly popular. Only 42% somewhat or strongly approve of the job he is doing as governor. Contrast that with the 50% who approve of the job Donald Trump is doing as president.

Next, some of the likely Democratic and Republican candidates are not very well known. For example, 57% of Ohio voters have neither an unfavorable nor favorable opinion of Democratic gubernatorial candidate Amy Acton, while 54% feel the same way about Republican candidate Dave Yost. Only 28% are neutral toward Republican candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, but 36% are favorable and 35% unfavorable.

Large numbers of voters not having opinions about candidates gives candidates the opportunity to define themselves positively and their opponents negatively, if they can raise the money to do so.

Even in the race for U.S. Senate, where the appointed incumbent Jon Husted is expected to run, the race could be competitive. Husted is ahead in a matchup with Sherrod Brown 47% to 41%, and would also lead Tim Ryan 45% to 38%. These are not insurmountable leads. The road to controlling the U.S. Senate may well run through Ohio in 2026.

It should be noted that all of these numbers are based on a highly Republican, pro-Trump sample (49% plan to vote in the Republican primary in 2026, while only 39% plan to vote in the Democratic primary).

There is no guarantee that the 2026 electorate will match the 2024 electorate, and the Democratic Party will work hard to make sure it does not, by generating enthusiasm and turnout among their partisans.

Enthusiasm is usually higher among the party that lost the previous presidential election in–part because voters are motivated to vote against a party rather than align themselves and enthusiastically support their party.

Even if Ohio’s days as a swing state in presidential elections are over, that does not mean that elections for U.S. Senate and state executive officers cannot be competitive. Democrats are definitely in a hole in Ohio, but the conditions are there for them to get themselves out.

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[1] Url: https://ohiocapitaljournal.com/2025/03/26/dont-write-off-ohio-political-science-professors-say/

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