(C) Ohio Capital Journal
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US House incumbents hold cash advantage in Ohio's most competitive races • Ohio Capital Journal [1]
['Nick Evans', 'Morgan Trau', 'Erik Gunn', 'More From Author', '- July', '.Wp-Block-Co-Authors-Plus-Coauthors.Is-Layout-Flow', 'Class', 'Wp-Block-Co-Authors-Plus', 'Display Inline', '.Wp-Block-Co-Authors-Plus-Avatar']
Date: 2024-07-22
This November every one of Ohio’s 15 U.S. Representatives will go before the voters, but only a handful of races are all that competitive.
Democrat Joyce Beatty and Republican Jim Jordan both face challengers in their districts but the territory favors their respective parties so much that their victories are a near certainty. In Ohio’s 2nd congressional district, a vast stretch of rural and Appalachian Ohio, nearly a dozen Republican candidates flooded into this year’s primary — some of them from outside the district — for the exact same reason.
There are only three races in the state that appear truly competitive. All three seats are currently held by Democrats, but the incumbents face legitimate Republican contenders. Two of those challengers have campaign experience and name recognition after long careers in state government; the third has strong ties to the Republican party in his county.
This week the campaigns turned in their quarterly finance reports, and the topline figures follow a familiar pattern — incumbents hold a strong advantage in fundraising and cash on hand. Still, a lot can change between now and November.
What about the rest of the map?
Even though only three Ohio congressional seats look competitive at the moment that doesn’t mean every other race is preordained.
In Ohio’s 6th District, former state Sen. Michael Rulli won a special election to finish former U.S. Rep. Bill Johnson’s unexpired term last month. The seat passing from one Republican to another was no surprise, but the margin was. Rulli dramatically outraised his opponent, first time Democratic candidate Michael Kripchak, but won by about 9 points in district that has swung to Republicans by about 18 points in recent years.
Ohio’s 7th District will see a rematch between U.S. Rep. Max Miller, R-OH, and Democrat Matthew Diemer. Miller won easily in 2022, but this time there’s a twist — former Cleveland Mayor and congressman Dennis Kucinich is running as an independent. While Kucinich previously served as a Democrat, his more recent rhetoric echoes conservative talking points or conspiracy theorists.
And in Ohio’s 15th District U.S. Rep. Mike Carey, R-OH, will face state Rep. Adam Miller, D-OH. Race watchers like The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball still consider it a safe Republican seat, but with experience as an elected official and a campaigner, Miller might out-perform expectations.
OH-1: Cincinnati-area
Ohio’s 1st Congressional district pairs the city of Cincinnati with the more conservative Warren County to the northeast. Freshman U.S. Rep. Greg Landsman, D-OH, is defending his seat against Orlando Sonza, who has experience as a CPA and assistant prosecutor in Hamilton County. An Army veteran and West Point graduate, Sonza currently heads up the Hamilton County Veterans Service Commission. Before serving in Congress Landsman was a schoolteacher and member of Cincinnati city council.
Landsman raised almost half a million dollars in the second quarter, compared to Sonza’s $204,000. He also started the quarter with more in the bank. As of the end of June, Landsman had $1.9 million in cash on hand; Sonza had just shy of a quarter million dollars. Neither candidate has outstanding loans to the campaign.
About half of Landsman’s quarterly fundraising came through the Democratic platform ActBlue, and he received roughly another $45,000 in donations funneled through American Israel Public Affairs Committee, or AIPAC. Landsman also received support from several colleagues, organized labor and professional interest group organizations.
Sonza’s biggest checks so far hint at how closely national republicans are watching his race. In addition to support from the National Republican Congressional Committee, which supports GOP House candidates around the country, Sonza received a contribution from House Speaker Mike Johnson’s PAC known as American Revival. He also picked up checks from Koch Industries’ PAC and former U.S. Sen. Rob Portman’s campaign committee.
In terms of spending neither candidate has made a major splash on ads yet. Their biggest expenses so far are printing, polling and consulting.
OH-9 Toledo and Northwest Ohio
U.S. Rep. Marcy Kaptur, D-OH, is the longest serving woman in Congressional history, but she has been a target for Republicans aiming to flip the seat since the latest round of redistricting. Instead of the snake on the lake, Ohio’s 9th district is now a toss-up seat that stretches out into the rural northwest corner of the state.
The problem for Republicans has been their own inability to field a viable candidate. In 2022, J.R. Majewski beat out two seasoned state lawmakers for the nomination but lost after reports that he exaggerated his experience in the military. This cycle the Republican primary was a bit of circular firing squad. Former state Rep. Craig Riedel’s candidacy was tarnished by a secret recording in which he was critical of Donald Trump. Majewski jumped in the race and then out — twice — before the party settled on state Rep. Derek Merrin, R-Monclova Twp., at the eleventh hour.
Merrin raised about a quarter million dollars in the second quarter and walks into the summer with a little more than $400,000 on hand. He has also loaned the campaign $30,000. Kaptur, with the benefit of incumbency and a long head start, raised more than $650,000 during the quarter and has $2.6 million on hand.
Republican House leaders, including Speaker Johnson himself, encouraged Merrin to enter the race, and their impact shows up in his fundraising haul. The second and third largest donations he reported come from joint committees controlled by Johnson and his deputy, Majority Leader Steve Scalise. The biggest influx was $90,000 in transfers from Merrin’s joint fundraising committee with the National Republican Congressional Committee. He also picked up donations funneled through the Club for Growth and checks from business groups like the U.S Chamber and the National Federation of Independent Business.
Kaptur raised close to $300,000 from individuals through ActBlue. Trade associations and organized labor are well represented, too, with contributions from United Auto Workers, general contractors, longshoremen and mine workers. She also got contributions from agricultural interests including corn and soybean growers — among other positions, Kaptur serves on the Appropriations subcommittee overseeing ag and rural development.
To this point neither campaign has really begun spending on campaign ads. Kaptur’s biggest expenses so far have been polling and consulting. She’s spent a little more than $3,000 on direct mail or TV and digital advertising. Merrin, on the other hand, spent close to $25,000 on direct mail this quarter, but not for the contest against Kaptur. Prior to the current quarter, Merrin’s campaign racked up $120,000 in campaign communication services purchased on credit. His campaign still owes a bit more than $95,000.
OH-13 Akron and Canton
In Summit County, another first term Democrat is running to keep her seat. But U.S. Rep. Emilia Sykes, D-OH, is facing a more experienced challenger in former state Sen. Kevin Coughlin.
It’s been a few years since Coughlin served in public office, but he first won election to the state House in 1996 before getting appointed to fill a vacancy in the state Senate. He went on to win two terms in the upper chamber before leaving in 2010 due to term limits. After that, Coughlin mulled a U.S. Senate bid against Sherrod Brown but ultimately decided not to run.
Among the GOP challengers, Coughlin raised the most cash during the second quarter with roughly $370,000. He has also loaned his campaign $150,000.
Like Merrin, some of his largest donations come from GOP leadership in the U.S. House. Speaker Johnson’s Grow the Majority joint fundraising committee sent Coughlin more than $35,000, and his American Revival PAC sent another $5,000. Majority Leader Scalise’s joint committee sent just shy of $22,000 and his personal PAC tacked on another two grand as well. In terms of interest groups, Coughlin got support from American Builders and Contractors as well as a trade group representing electrical contractors. Coughlin also raised close to $100,000 from individuals through the GOP fundraising platform WinRed.
Sykes, like the other Democrats, brought in a substantial share of her fundraising through ActBlue, totaling about $300,000. But she added to that with donations from several other conduit organizations. Emily’s List, which support Democrats who favor reproductive rights, accounted for almost $40,000. Swing Left which backs Democrats in swing districts sent about $6,000. Interestingly, two pro-Israel organizations that don’t quite see eye to eye directed thousands to Sykes’ campaign. AIPAC sent about $18,500 her way and J Street accounted for about $16,500.
In all, Sykes raised nearly $1 million in the second quarter. She brought in a little more than $700,000 in donations from individuals and PACs and then bolstered that total with a $277,000 infusion from the House Victory Project — a joint fundraising committee focused on highly competitive races. With about $2.4 million on hand, Sykes had nearly $2 million more than Coughlin at close of the quarter.
Like the other races, neither campaign has started buying ads. Sykes spent about $14,000 on mailers, but otherwise, the campaigns’ biggest expenses to this point have been polling and consulting. Like Merrin, Coughlin went into debt to cover some of his expenses in the previous quarter, but he paid off the entirety of that roughly $16,500 debt before the end of the current reporting period.
Follow OCJ Reporter Nick Evans on Twitter.
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