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Trump Joint Favorite at +250 [1]

['Andy Whiteoak', 'Sports Content Editor']

Date: 2025-08-08 08:20:52+00:00

It might be hard to draw similarities between the Secretary-General of the United Nations, a 98-year-old British broadcaster and biologist, Donald Trump, and Elon Musk. But we now have one; they all feature in the Nobel Prize odds.

"While President Trump values monetary distinction and enrichment, the Prize is seen as a symbol that he is not slighted..."

In addition to the aforementioned nominees, there are likely more than 250 others who could win the award this year. We can use the Nobel Prize betting market, analysis of previous winners, and assess the criteria of winning the award to help inform predictions and potentially find value in the market.

Nobel Prize betting: What does the market tell us? Betting markets have proven to be a great means of predicting outcomes for various events. Yes, typically we’re talking about Super Bowl odds or the World Cup in soccer, but the same applies when analyzing the Grammy Awards odds and even the Nobel Prize odds. There is currently a long list of potential candidates for the award this year (the official number of nominees is yet to be confirmed), but a quick at the betting data makes Nobel Prize 2025 predictions a little bit easier. Below is a list of some notable candidates to win this year’s award. Candidate US Odds Implied Probability Donald Trump +250 28.57% Yulia Navalnaya +250 28.57% Volodymyr Zelensky +1000 9.09% Doctors Without Borders +1200 7.69% International Criminal Court +1200 7.69% Greta Thunberg +1600 5.88% Sir David Attenborough +2000 4.76% Julian Assange +2000 4.76% European Union +2000 4.76% Ursula von der Leyen +2500 3.85% Elon Musk +2500 3.85% Keir Starmer +3300 2.94% Odds accurate as of August 13

RELATED: We predict if Donald Trump could win the Nobel Peace Prize?

Donald Trump: Nobel Peace Prize Odds For 2025 First with his involvement in the ongoing war in Ukraine, tensions boiling between Iran and Israel in the Middle East: we could see more movement in the Nobel Peace Prize betting market. As it stands: Donald Trump is the joint-favorite to win the Nobel Peace Prize at +250. Nearly 20% of the winners in the last 50 years have been awarded their Nobel Peace Prize for their involvement in peace processes or by securing a peace agreement between warring nations. We spoke to Jeff Le, a former senior official in California state politics who negotiated with the first Trump administration and Managing Partner at tech policy consultancy 100 Mile Strategies to gain some insight into Donald Trump’s case for winning a Nobel Peace Prize. “One could argue that bombing Iran’s nuclear program could be a peace building measure and protects American allies and interests.” Jeff commented, “But it does not necessarily signal a clear reduction in tensions or peace.” I specialise in covering these types of betting markets, so read on for a deep dive into one of the more niche betting markets around. Whether you want to try and make money on the Nobel Prize betting odds, or you’re just interested to know who might win, the information below will answer a lot of your questions.

RELATED: Could Donald Trump or Volodymyr Zelensky win the Time Person of the Year award?

Live Nobel Peace Prize 2025 odds While there are some prominent names that stand out in the Nobel Prize betting markets, there are plenty of options to bet on. Given the early stages we’re at in the process, and the traditionally unpredictable nature of the award winner, the market is full of big price options.

Nobel Prize predictions: Could Donald Trump win a Nobel Peace Prize? Shortly after Donald Trump started his second term as President of the United States, his odds to win the Nobel Peace Prize were +1100. Now, after he left the G7 Summit early touting action in the middle East over Israel and Iran, and the subsequent midnight bombing raid of Iran’s nuclear sites: he finds his odds moved as low as +210. If he is able to coerce Iran and Israel to the table for peace talks… President Trump could secure a win long before the award is announced. When asked about the importance of the award for Trump, Jeff Le noted, “For the President, it’s about validation and prestige. It’s about being in the in-crowd. While he values monetary distinction and enrichment, the Prize is seen as a symbol that he is not slighted.” As mentioned 1-in-5 winners of the award in the last 50 years were directly involved in brokering peace after a conflict. The biggest challenge could be: if he stays involved in matters in Ukraine, would either Zelenskyy or Putin be considered as a more deserving candidate if they successfully agree an end to hostilities? Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy currently sits third favorite behind Trump, and Yulia Navalnaya is the favorite at +1000. There is precedent for such events: during the Northern Ireland peace process in the late 90s – high ranking members of the British government were key in pushing the process forwards, yet the 1998 Nobel Peace Prize was given to John Hume and David Trimble. Donald Trump would be a polarizing choice, but he wouldn’t be the first: Yasser Arafat and Yitzak Rabin were awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 1994. Trump would be the second sitting US President to win the Nobel Peace Prize after Barack Obama won in 2009. President Jimmy Carter also won the award in 2002, 21 years after his presidency ended.

Nobel Prize odds: How is the winner decided? Often when people talk about the Nobel Prize, thet are referring to the Nobel Peace Prize. There are in fact five awards in total, all of which were established by Alfred Nobel. Nobel was a Swedish industrialist, inventor, and military equipment manufacturer Alfred Nobel. The process for determining the winner of the Nobel Prize is pretty straightforward. It is decided by a voting process amongst the Norwegian Nobel Committee. This role of the committee was outlined as part of Alfred Nobel’s will and was established by the Norwegian Storting (this is the country’s parliament) in 1897. The instruction in Nobel’s will was for the winner to be decided by the person or group who has “done the most or the best work for fraternity between nations, for the abolition or reduction of standing armies and for the holding and promotion of peace congresses”. The Norwegian Nobel Committee consists of five members, each of which are elected for six year terms. The current Norwegian Nobel Committee is made up of Jørgen Watne Frydnes, Asle Toje, Anne Enger, Kristin Clemet, and Gry Larsen. The first list of nominees is formed by submissions from members of national assemblies, governments, and international courts of law; university chancellors, professors of social science, and members of other various institutes. These nominations are finalised in February. Through February and March, the committee assess the work of the nominees and finalise a shortlist for voting. There is further review and discussion through until August before a final vote in October. The vote is settled on majority for the winner, and announced in the same month. The award is then presented in December. Interestingly, the committee can choose not to give the prize at all. Previous Nobel Peace Prize winners A look at previous winners is one way to try and make more accurate Nobel Prize predictions for 2025. Unfortunately, it is very difficult to uncover any sort of pattern that might help in terms of betting. I have listed the previous winners below to help those that might be interested though. Year Winner 2024 Nihon Hidankyo 2023 Narges Mohammadi 2022 Ales Bialiatski, Memorial and Center for Civi Liberties 2021 Maria Ressa and Dmitry Muratov 2020 Word Food Programme 2019 Abiy Ahmed Ali

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