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Analyst: Finkenauer faces ‘uphill battle’ against Grassley despite strong fundraising

['Katie Akin', 'More From Author', '- October']

Date: 2021-10-18 00:00:00


Democrat Abby Finkenauer outraised incumbent Sen. Chuck Grassley in the third quarter of 2021, but a national political analyst cautioned that she still faces “an uphill battle” with the seven-term incumbent.

Finkenauer raised about $1 million between July 1 and Sept. 30. The former congresswoman launched her Senate campaign during this period, in late July.

She announced her fundraising numbers in early October, touting them as the most raised in a first quarter and the most raised in an off-year quarter.

“I’m so grateful for everybody who has chosen to believe in this campaign,” Finkenauer said in a press release. “Together, we’re going to send a message to Washington D.C. and those at the top that Iowa doesn’t quit.”

During the same time period, July to September, Grassley raised a net total of $584,000. But Grassley didn’t announce officially that he was running for re-election until Sept. 24, six days before the fundraising quarter ended.

Jessica Taylor, the Senate and governors editor for the Cook Political Report, said she expects to see Grassley’s fundraising increase in upcoming quarters. She cautioned that fundraising, especially a full year ahead of the election, does not tell the whole story of a Senate race.

“When you look at other factors — just Iowa’s political makeup, the environment that’s shaping up — running against a long-time incumbent is still such an uphill battle,” Taylor said. “She will need as much money as she can, but that’s not going to be the only factor if she wants to have a chance.”

Taylor also noted that Grassley, the seven-term incumbent for the position, had far more cash on hand than Finkenauer: He has about $3.1 million in the bank, compared to about $600,000 for Finkenauer.

The Cook Political Report ranks Grassley’s seat as “Solid R” — one of the safest races in the country for Republicans. Taylor explained that Finkenauer (and other Democratic challengers for the seat) are in for a difficult race, as Iowa has leaned red in recent federal elections and Grassley has a long history in the state.

“He is so well-known there that he doesn’t have as much work as Finkenauer does to introduce herself,” she said.

In recent weeks, Finkenauer has traveled the state doing campaign events and meeting Iowans. In response to Grassley’s long legacy in the state, she has framed him as a “Washington elite” after serving in D.C. for over 40 years. Finkenauer also took aim at Grassley for accepting an endorsement from former President Donald Trump.

“We are building a campaign that Senator Grassley has never seen before, holding him accountable for his allegiance to big Pharma, Wall Street, and the Washington D.C. elite over hardworking Iowans,” Finkenauer said in a statement. “We are not backing down and we will and must win.”

Greenfield presents a cautionary tale for Democrats

In recent races in Iowa and across the country, Democrats have been successful at raising money. Democratic candidate Theresa Greenfield raised four times as much as incumbent Sen. Joni Ernst in the final quarter before the 2020 election — $28.7 million compared to $7.2 million. But Ernst still won the state by 6 percentage points.

“We’ve also seen that Democrats outraising Republicans does not necessarily mean that they’re going to lose,” Taylor said of Republicans.

Taylor noted that 2022 is looking even more challenging for Democrats than 2020 was: It’s a midterm election, which is traditionally tough on the majority party, and Grassley is in a stronger position for re-election than Ernst was. She said that, so far, there has been less national Democratic interest in Finkenauer than there was for Greenfield.

“When you look nationally, there are far better opportunities for Democrats to flip red seats,” she said.

What about the other Senate candidates?

Finkenauer is not the only politician challenging Grassley in 2022, but the most recent round of fundraising numbers show she is the most popular opponent in the field right now.

There are two other Democrats running for the seat. Glenn Hurst, a doctor and city council member from Minden, announced his candidacy on July 29 and raised $32,000. According to FEC records, the Hurst campaign spent only $85 between July and September.

Former Crawford County Supervisor Dave Muhlbauer announced his campaign in late May and raised $27,000 in the most recent quarter.

Democrat Mike Franken announced his candidacy just last week. He joined the race after the end of the quarter and has not yet filed any financial information with the Federal Election Commission.

Grassley also faces a primary challenge from state Sen. Jim Carlin. Carlin announced his campaign first, in February. He raised $94,204 in the most recent quarter.

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