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Undertones: Putin’s war emboldens promoters of a ‘United India’ [1]
['Civic Media Observatory']
Date: 2022-03-18 00:00:00

Welcome to Undertones, the Civic Media Observatory newsletter! In each edition we'll analyze an event, emerging trend, or a complex story, identifying key narratives of urgent public interest, delving deep into the context and subtext of local, vernacular and multilingual media. Undertones also offers an entry point into the public datasets that underpin our Observatory work.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine at the end of February coincided with important legislative assembly elections in India, bolstering the expression of expansionist sentiment on the campaign trail and elsewhere.

Expansionist narratives have long been present in Indian media, but the war in Ukraine has given them an additional boost. Now that legislative assembly elections are over, with the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) having won major states—setting the tone for India’s 2024 general elections—pro-BJP media are seeking to humiliate and silence dissenters.

The BJP and hyper-nationalist Hindutva groups have also used the war to position Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi as an indispensable global leader and promote the establishment of a “United India.”

Diplomatically, India has remained neutral with regard to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Within the country’s borders, however, mainstream media and far-right groups have expressed support for Putin’s invasion. Not only is Russia India’s oldest and most strategic partner, but Putin’s expansionist ideology bears striking similarities to the hyper-nationalism of one of the key concepts of Hindutva: “Akhand Bharat” or “One India,” and commentators are drawing parallels between the breakdown of the Soviet Union and the division of India after colonial rule.

Dangerous narratives

When the BJP government came to power in India in 2014, Prime Minister Narendra Modi promised to lead India in becoming a world superpower. For the BJP and pro-Modi groups, that opportunity presented itself with the war in Ukraine.

In general, Modi is seen as a superhero by his followers, but since Russia invaded Ukraine, memes and posts by right-wing groups have promoted the vision of Modi as a powerful “alpha male” or “Vishwa Guru” (“World Leader”) who is capable of stopping the war, especially as Ukrainian diplomat Igor Polikha has requested India’s support.

In broadcast media, too, Modi was hailed as a global leader and savior following the controversial evacuation of Indian students from Ukraine.

Pro-Modi media cannot be examined in isolation from state legislative assembly elections. At a time when Modi has been criticized for rising anti-Muslim violence in India, media reports have tried to whitewash his image by portraying him as a strong and necessary global leader.

Civic Media Observatory at MozFest

Identifying misinformation and disinformation online can feel like a hopeless game of Whack-a-Mole. On March 10, at the 2022 MozFest hosted by the Mozilla Foundation, our Civic Media Observatory team discussed how Observatory methods and research use narrative, contextual and subtextual analysis to build a fuller understanding of media ecosystems. The session “Beyond fact-checking Whack-a-Mole: Using narrative and contextual analysis to decode mis/disinformation,” is available here, just sign up for a free on-demand ticket!

Next week: More on Russia-Ukraine narratives

Civic Media Observatory researchers are decoding narratives about Russia’s Ukraine invasion in their respective countries. This is an ongoing investigation — see next week’s newsletter for more.

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