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Democracy Survived the Year of Elections, But the Struggle for Freedom Continues [1]
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Date: 2024-12
Despite the anxiety of many analysts and journalists, most democracies held free and fair elections in 2024. Reassuringly, there were no attempts to prevent the peaceful transfer of power during this year’s contests. On the other hand, in countries with weak or nonexistent democratic institutions, electoral manipulation—attempts to skew the playing field to aid the incumbent—were widespread. In countries rated Partly Free and Not Free in Freedom in the World, incumbents attempted to stifle competition by excluding opponents in 22 of 35 contests. Violence against political candidates, targeting polling places, and during postelection protests was also a major factor, impacting 26 elections globally.
These trends are worth careful consideration. But as this year draws to a close, it is important to remember that elections represent one moment in time. What happens next, as leaders assume the offices they were voted into, will set the trajectory for democracy.
Noncompetitive elections remain the norm in autocracies
In a quarter of the 62 elections tracked by Freedom House, which took place between January 1 and November 5, 2024, voters had no real choices at the ballot box. In at least 16 contests, autocrats arbitrarily jailed or disqualified opponents ahead of the vote to eliminate even the slimmest chance that they might lose their grip on power. In Algeria, Azerbaijan, and Rwanda, for example, most political opponents were arrested or disqualified on flimsy and politically motivated grounds, paving the way for the incumbents to sail to victory with over 90 percent of the vote.
Banning candidates did not ensure a smooth election for every autocrat. After the Supreme Court in Venezuela upheld a 15-year election ban against María Corina Machado, a popular opposition leader who won a primary in 2023, she threw her support behind a different challenger, Edmundo González Urrutia. Unable to exclude the opposition completely, Nicolás Maduro’s regime resorted to cruder methods of manipulation, including falsifying the results and arresting thousands of opposition supporters after announcing the rigged outcome.
Craving the legitimacy that elections bestow on their winners, autocrats actively encouraged—and in some cases pressured—voters to turn out. In the lead-up to Iran’s presidential election following the death of Ebrahim Raisi, authorities issued strict media guidelines criminalizing any content that discouraged voter turnout or promoted election boycotts. The Kremlin worked to achieve record voter turnout and record vote share for Vladimir Putin by compelling universities and schools to threaten students with academic discipline if they did not vote in the presidential election.
Violence was widespread
Violence degraded the rights and safety of candidates and voters alike in 2024. In some cases, criminal groups targeted candidates to try to influence election outcomes. At least 38 people, most running for local office, were killed during Mexico’s general elections. According to analysis done by Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED), a research organization, competition among criminal gangs drove many of the attacks. In South Africa, at least 40 assassinations were recorded in the lead-up to parliamentary elections in May, which largely targeted local officials and politicians. There too the violence was mostly perpetrated by criminal groups aiming to exert territorial control.
Political grievances channeled into violence marred elections in established democracies. In France, 51 candidates, substitutes, and activists were physically assaulted ahead of this summer’s tense parliamentary elections. The country’s interior minister noted that the attackers were from “the ultra-left, the ultra-right or other political groups.” Early in the year, a man stabbed Lee Jae-myung, an opposition leader in South Korea, during a campaign event. In the United States, Donald Trump was targeted in two assassination attempts.
Violence also impacted voters and election workers. Polling places were attacked during at least 12 elections, including in Chad, Iran, Mexico, Pakistan, and Venezuela. Indian election authorities voided voting results at 11 polling stations in Manipur State after violent attacks by armed individuals occurred on the first day of national elections.
What happens after the year of elections ends?
Free, fair and peaceful elections are an integral part of democracy, but they alone cannot guarantee its survival. In a sign of possible trouble to come, a number of 2024 campaigns included explicit promises by candidates to punish their opponents. In Georgia, the ruling Georgian Dream party promised to use a parliamentary majority to declare the main opposition movement unconstitutional. According to National Public Radio, Donald Trump made more than 100 threats to prosecute his political opponents during the US presidential campaign. If they are pursued, efforts to arbitrarily ban, arrest, or jail political opponents will be one of the clearest signs of the deterioration of democracy.
There is also reason to expect that some winners of free and fair elections will attempt to undermine democratic institutions. Slovakia’s Robert Fico, who became prime minister in September 2023 after his party won that year’s parliamentary election, pushed through a series of legislative measures earlier this year that weakened that country’s anticorruption authorities. These offices, including the Special Prosecutor’s Office and the National Crime Agency, had actively prosecuted Fico’s political allies. In Mexico, outgoing President Andrés Manuel López Obrador used his party’s landslide victory in the general elections to complete a fundamental overhaul of the judiciary that includes switching from merit-based appointment to popular elections of judges and establishing a new Judicial Disciplinary Tribunal. The changes apply to the Supreme Court, which has blocked a number of López Obrador’s policy efforts in the past. Legal scholars have argued that these reforms reduce both the impartiality and independence of judges.
Holding leaders accountable after election season ends means relying on democracy’s other integral components. Independent courts can uphold the rule of law and check executive overreach. An independent media can shine a light on corruption and misconduct. Civil society organizations can monitor rights violations, aid marginalized communities, and mobilize the public. People can peacefully exercise their freedom of assembly. As the continued resilience of dissidents in authoritarian countries demonstrates, these aspects of democracy cannot be undone easily even by ambitious illiberal leaders. The year of global elections is over, but the fight to expand and protect freedoms continues.
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