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As Sudan’s Devastating War Enters a Second Year, the Global Response Falls Short [1]
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Date: 2024-08
This week marked the first anniversary of the outbreak of war between the regular Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), led by military ruler Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo—better known as “Hemedti.”
Before turning on each other last year, the two commanders had been united by their opposition to civilian rule. On April 11, 2019, amid revolutionary civilian protests, al-Burhan, Hemedti, and other members of the incumbent regime’s supreme security committee overthrew longtime dictator Omar al-Bashir and later agreed to share power with a transitional civilian government led by Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok. This arrangement garnered international endorsements, particularly from the United States and European powers, but it lacked robust popular support. As public calls for accountability and full civilian control increased, al-Burhan and Hemedti joined forces to overthrow the civilian government in an October 2021 coup.
Despite this setback, the Sudanese people remained steadfast in their demands for a transition to democracy. Prolonged political negotiations between civilian leaders and the military junta yielded a roadmap for a return to civilian governance. However, disagreements between al-Burhan and Hemedti over military reform—specifically the integration of the RSF into the SAF—could not be resolved, and the two factions took many by surprise in launching a full-scale armed conflict in the capital, Khartoum, on April 15, 2023.
The ensuing war has been catastrophic, destroying large swaths of Khartoum, crippling government services, and leaving the state itself on the verge of collapse. In Darfur, Hemedti’s western base of operations, the RSF have engaged in ethnically motivated killings—particularly in El Geneina, where UN officials have documented massacres against the local Masalit ethnic group. Sexual violence has also skyrocketed in Darfur. More recently the war has spread to the states of Gezira and Sennar along the Nile, displacing hundreds of thousands of people from the area around Khartoum and other affected cities, and aggravating long-standing conflicts.
To date the warring parties have killed at least 13,000 civilians and caused over 10 million others to flee their homes. Both the RSF and the SAF are blocking access to lifesaving aid. Violence and repression have disrupted the economy and agricultural production. The United Nations has warned that 24.9 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance. Human rights abuses have included forced disappearances and the detention and torture of political and civic activists. The RSF has been especially vicious in its ethnically motivated atrocities against civilians, systemic sexual violence, and looting of property, while the SAF has engaged in extensive aerial bombardment of populated areas.
An internationalized conflict calls for an international response
An array of authoritarian powers have become deeply involved in Sudan’s internal conflict. Hemedti’s RSF has received material and political support from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Russia’s Wagner mercenary group. The UAE backs the RSF in part to protect illicit gold-mining and other extractive operations in the country, and has previously deployed RSF personnel to fight for its proxies and partners in Yemen and Libya. Al-Burhan’s SAF has the full backing of Egypt, as Egyptian president Abdel Fattah al-Sisi evidently prefers a military autocracy in Sudan over any successful democratic transition that could inspire a similar movement in his own country. The Egyptian leadership also maintains strategic ties to the SAF as a potential ally in any future conflict with Ethiopia over that country’s construction of a massive dam on the Blue Nile. And while Egypt remains the main supplier of weapons to the SAF, al-Burhan has recently begun importing military supplies, including drones, from Iran as well.
Engagement from democratic actors has run hot and cold. The United States, the United Kingdom, and Norway were initially outspoken in their support for a democratic transition overseen by Prime Minister Hamdok’s 2019 civilian-led government. However, as Sudanese public opinion soured on the substance of the transition, and al-Burhan and Hemedti consolidated their forces, little effort was made to include authentic civilian voices in negotiations. After war broke out and dragged on, the US and European governments shifted their focus to the conflicts in Ukraine and then Israel and Gaza, with comparatively little public effort devoted to ending the bloodshed in Sudan. The United States holds considerable sway with Egypt, given its long-standing military assistance, and with the UAE, in terms of diplomatic engagement, but it has so far not exerted enough pressure to keep either regime from arming Sudan’s belligerent factions.
Peace negotiations have proceeded in fits and starts among regional actors, the United States, and European countries, while representatives of Sudanese civil society remain marginalized in such talks. The US appointment of a special envoy for Sudan in February, although overdue, was a welcome step that could break impasses. An end to the conflict and a surge in humanitarian assistance are urgently needed, but a peace agreement and a transitional process that sets a clear roadmap to civilian governance must follow. It is critically important for civilian perspectives, especially those of women and youth, to be incorporated into each step of the process if it is to deliver on the promises of democracy and security-sector reform and reduce the risk of future coups.
A path to peace and accountability
As an immediate priority, the US special envoy must work in collaboration with the African Union and the United Nations to halt the flow of military assistance from authoritarian states to the RSF and the SAF and persuade both parties to enter negotiations on ending hostilities and allowing full access for humanitarian aid.
The UN Panel of Experts on Sudan should carry out special investigations into all parties that may be violating existing arms embargos on Sudan, including the governments and associated entities of the UAE, Russia, Egypt, and Iran. The United States could use the findings of such investigations to support new sanctions on state and nonstate actors.
Transparency and accountability will be crucial for any progress toward a democratic transition. Civilians must have faith that the perpetrators of human rights violations will not have impunity. Though the United States is not a signatory to the International Criminal Court’s Rome Statute, it has cooperated with the court by sharing evidence of crimes in Ukraine, and the adoption of a similar model for Sudan would reinforce the necessity of investigating and punishing mass atrocities and crimes against humanity.
Finally, the United States should galvanize support for a dialogue among civilian political and civil society groups, with the aim of reaching consensus on plans for a transitional authority and eventual democratic elections.
Sudan’s decades of war and instability are a direct consequence of authoritarian rule, and an end to fighting between the SAF and RSF is only the first step toward addressing the problem. International policymakers should focus not just on securing a cessation of hostilities, but also on creating the conditions necessary for a lasting peace. This will require the formation of a government that has genuine popular support, that serves the people’s interests and upholds their rights, and that citizens can hold democratically accountable for its performance.
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https://freedomhouse.org/article/sudans-devastating-war-enters-second-year-global-response-falls-short
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