(C) EurasiaNet
This story was originally published by EurasiaNet and is unaltered.
. . . . . . . . . .



Trump brokers potentially game-changing deal with Armenia, Azerbaijan [1]

['Sherzod Shermatov', 'Minister Of Digital Technologies Of The Republic Of Uzbekistan', 'Irakli Machaidze']

Date: 2025-08

US President Donald Trump has brokered a preliminary peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan that brings the United States into the Caucasus, while potentially giving Russia a nudge out of the region and keeping Iran contained.



Trump met separately with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani leader Ilham Aliyev at the White House on August 8 before the trio formally announced a series of agreements. The centerpiece is an Armenian commitment to grant a long-term lease to the United States to develop a transit corridor traversing Armenian territory and connecting mainland Azerbaijan to the country’s Nakhchivan exclave. Other agreements announced August 8 outline US intentions to strengthen economic ties with both Yerevan and Baku.



The corridor issue had long been a sticking point in efforts to finalize a peace pact between Baku and Yerevan to end almost 40 years of conflict. Armenia had balked at Azerbaijan’s demand for extraterritorial rights on the corridor allowing for unhindered transit for Azerbaijani nationals. Under the agreement, US management of the corridor would provide Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s government with sufficient cover to maintain the appearance of Armenian sovereignty over the route, while Azerbaijan obtains essentially what it wants – access to Nakhichivan that is largely free of Armenian interference.



The corridor has been dubbed the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, or TRIPP.



Armenia and Azerbaijan also initialed what was described as a peace agreement, although the specifics remain unclear. For Pashinyan, getting a peace agreement signed is a diplomatic priority, something he has described as a prerequisite for his plan to economically reorient Armenia toward the West, away from Russia.



Meanwhile, the United States stands to gain a foothold in an increasingly important strategic region, giving the Trump administration the ability to advance its geopolitical priorities in several areas. For one, the deal could provide a boost for the Middle Corridor trade network, which is touted by US officials as a means to significantly expand the United States’ and European Union’s trade with Central Asian and Caucasian states.



In addition, a US-managed corridor would mark a major blow to Russia, the long-time geopolitical overlord of the Caucasus. The Kremlin had sought a peacekeeping role in any corridor arrangement, but encountered strong resistance from both Armenia and Azerbaijan. Now, Russia’s ability to exert strategic influence over Armenia and Azerbaijan stands to be greatly reduced.



Konstantin Zatulin, the deputy head of the Russian Duma’s Committee on CIS Affairs, was quoted by the Lenta.ru outlet as saying the deal “simultaneously means the squeezing of Russia out of the Caucasus and the arrival of the United States.” Russia’s lone remaining strategic outpost is the region is a military base in Armenia, and now that “hangs by a thread,” Zatulin added.



Iran could be an even bigger loser. The corridor could lead to the establishment of a US strategic listening post not far from Iran’s northern border. It also stands to significantly disrupt Iranian trade. Bilateral Iranian-Armenian turnover has skyrocketed in recent years, as Yerevan has emerged as a vital outlet for Iranian goods, including as a conduit for Iranian-Russian trade.



The Iranian government vigorously opposed the establishment of a land corridor, even a Russian-controlled route, because of the threat it posed to Tehran’s economic interests. A significantly expanded US presence in the region is sure to put Iranian leaders on edge.



Aliyev, speaking to reporters after the signing of the agreements, said: “you can be absolutely sure what happened today will result in eternal peace in the Caucasus.”



While smiles abounded at the White House on August 8, the corridor deal is not necessarily done. Specifics governing the management of the corridor remain to be finalized. At the signing ceremony, Trump indicated the lease could run up to 99 years, adding that American firms would commit to major infrastructure investments to develop the corridor.



Past experience shows that geopolitical initiatives in the Caucasus can produce promising initial results, only to falter over differences on details. The 2001 Key West peace process involving Armenia and Azerbaijan, and the 2009 Armenian-Turkey diplomatic normalization protocols are the most prominent examples of would-be peace deals failing to fulfill their promise.

[END]
---
[1] Url: https://eurasianet.org/trump-brokers-potentially-game-changing-deal-with-armenia-azerbaijan

Published and (C) by EurasiaNet
Content appears here under this condition or license: Creative Commons CC BY-ND 4.0.

via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds:
gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/eurasianet/

You are viewing proxied material from magical.fish. The copyright of proxied material belongs to its original authors. Any comments or complaints in relation to proxied material should be directed to the original authors of the content concerned. Please see the disclaimer for more details.