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Quick Hits #10: A roundup of recent developments in the Caucasus and Central Asia [1]
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Date: 2025-08
Russia is looking to increase its oil exports to China by almost 25 percent via Kazakhstan, which will require at least some upgrades to the existing infrastructure. (Photo: gov.kz)
Leading off…
Azerbaijan and Russia just can’t stop sniping at each other. The latest round of mud slinging began after Azerbaijani officials authorized the removal of a statue of 19th century Armenian-Russian artist Ivan Aivazovsky in the Nagorno Karabakh capital Khankendi. Officials in Baku maintained the monument had been installed years ago by Russian peacekeeping forces without Azerbaijan’s permission. Russian authorities quickly assailed Baku’s efforts to “cancel” Russian culture. Konstantin Zatulin, the deputy head of the Russian Duma’s Committee on CIS Affairs, called it an “act of barbarism,” adding that “like many barbarisms, [the removal] has a frankly stupid character.” Reporting by Russian state-controlled media on the matter clearly got under the skin of Azerbaijani authorities, in particular repeated Russian references to Karabakh’s capital as Stepanakert. The city was renamed Khankendi from Stepanakert following Azerbaijan’s reconquest of Karabakh in 2023. An Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry spokesman rapped Russia on August 1, describing the Stepanakert references as an “an act of disrespect and insult to the territorial integrity of our country,” and cautioning that punitive measures would be taken against Russian journalists in Azerbaijan, if a public apology wasn’t quickly forthcoming.
In case you missed it from the Caucasus…
Armenia’s Defense Ministry announced August 2 that Armenian troops will join American military personnel in peacekeeping exercises under the auspices of the “Eagle Partner 2025” program. The maneuvers are scheduled to run from August 12-20 in Armenia. “The purpose of the exercise is to enhance the interoperability of units participating in international peacekeeping missions, exchange best practices in control and tactical communication, and improve the readiness of the [Armenian] peacekeeping unit.” The Eagle Partner exercises have been held annually since 2023. In remarks made during last year’s opening ceremony, US Ambassador to Armenia Kristina Kvien noted that the joint exercises are “at the forefront of an important and growing relationship and partnership.”
Meanwhile across the Caspian…
Russia is looking to increase its oil exports to China by almost 25 percent via Kazakhstan. In 2024, Russia’s China-bound export volume through Kazakhstan totaled 10.2 million tons. Russian officials have expressed interest in adding an additional 2.5 million tons to the annual flow. Kazakh Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov said Astana is open to the proposal, indicating that existing infrastructure could probably handle the added transit flow. "I think, in the near future... we will find an exact answer to whether it is necessary to build new oil pumping stations,” Akkenzhenov told journalists July 31. "But first, according to my data, we will cope, I think, with the use of specialized additives."
Remittances from labor migrants abroad are playing a major role in fueling economic growth in Tajikistan. The World Bank’s latest update on the Central Asian nation’s economic performance shows real GDP growth reached 8.4 percent in 2024, and stood at 8.2 percent in the first quarter of 2025. Remittances accounted for a whopping 49 percent of GDP in 2024, up from 39 percent the previous year. “The medium-term outlook remains favorable, with growth projected to moderate to 7 percent in 2025 and converge toward a growth rate of 4.5-5 percent in 2026–27,” the World Bank update predicts. “This trajectory reflects the anticipated normalization of remittance inflows, ongoing global trade-related uncertainties that could disrupt supply chains, and a weaker demand for metals and minerals except for gold.” The update cautioned that maintaining growth momentum will depend heavily on the government’s “firm commitment” to implementing reforms aimed at attracting private investment and protecting investor rights.
Two Turkmen dissidents haven’t been seen or heard from since July 24, following their reported release from a deportation facility in Turkey, Human Rights Watch reports. The two dissidents, Alisher Sakhatov and Abdulla Orusov, both bloggers critical of Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov’s regime in Ashgabat, had been held in a Turkish deportation facility since they were detained in April. However, in mid-July Turkey’s Constitutional Court suspended deportation proceedings against the pair and ordered their release. The last anyone has heard from the duo was a Sakhatov phone call to his wife in the evening of July 24. “Alisher Sakhatov and Abdulla Orusov may be in grave danger of physical harm in Türkiye or of secretly being expelled to Turkmenistan,” a HRW statement quoted Rachel Denber, the organization’s deputy Europe and Central Asia director, as saying. “Turkish authorities should ensure a swift and effective investigation into the men’s disappearance and ensure that they are not sent to Turkmenistan, where they face serious risk of persecution.”
In Uzbekistan, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev has carried out what local media described as “a massive personnel reshuffle,” with nearly two dozen bureaucrats getting new appointments. The scale of the reshuffle has sparked speculation about a behind-the-scenes power struggle in Tashkent, with some observers seeing the Uzbek leader’s moves as designed to strengthen the authority of his daughter, Saida Mirziyoyeva, who he appointed as his chief of staff in late June.
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