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While Russia barks, Azerbaijan shows no fear of Moscow’s bite [1]
['Irakli Machaidze', 'Mahmud Rzayev']
Date: 2025-07
The site of the crash of the Azerbaijani jet that was shot down by Russian air defenses. The incident was the starting point of an extended chill in the relationship between Baku and Moscow. (Photo: gov.kz)
Russia appears to be falling back on a good-cop, bad-cop strategy as it confronts a rupture in relations with Azerbaijan. But Baku is not buying any of the recent bluster coming out of Moscow and has a blunt message for the Kremlin; ‘we’re not afraid of you.’
Bilateral relations have been on a slow boil since late June, when two Azerbaijani nationals died in police custody in the Russian city of Yekaterinburg. That incident compounded already hard feelings felt in Baku over the accidental shootdown last December of an Azerbaijani civilian jetliner in Russian airspace, and the Kremlin’s refusal to take responsibility for the incident.
In recent days, Azerbaijani leader Ilham Aliyev has kept up a steady stream of invective against Russia, announcing on July 20, for example, that Azerbaijan is preparing to sue Russia over the plane shootdown. Most provocatively, Aliyev lauded Ukraine at a recent press briefing for its resistance to Russia’s invasion, urging Ukrainians to “never surrender” and “never accept occupation.”
For most of July, Kremlin officials have played a waiting game, constantly pointing out that the two states have strong mutual economic interests. They apparently hope that after letting off some steam, Baku will revert to a business-as-usual stance. So far, though, the comparatively gentle, patient approach has not yielded the desired outcome.
After Aliyev’s pro-Ukraine comments, the Kremlin seemed to tweak its tactics, unleashing Telegram attack dogs, otherwise known as Z-bloggers, or social media influencers with millions of followers. Multiple channels called on the Kremlin to take military action, or impose an economic embargo, to put Baku in its place for its “Russophobic” stance.
“Let the tomato sellers on the border start smelling of heat,” one blogger snipped, referring derogatorily to Azerbaijani nationals who sell fruits and vegetables at markets in major cities across Russia.
Some Russian political figures also called for a more forceful response. Konstantin Zatulin, the first deputy chairman of the State Duma’s Committee for CIS Affairs, voiced concern that the United States and European Union were making dangerous geopolitical inroads in the South Caucasus. “We are facing the threat of losing all influence [in the South Caucasus] … which could inevitably have an impact on our internal circumstances.”
Meanwhile, Kremlin representatives have tried to style themselves as voices of restraint. Vladimir Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, yet again noted that it is in the two countries’ economic interest to get relations back on track. “Sometimes it happens that difficult periods occur in relations between two countries. Now is one of such periods. We hope that this period will pass,” he said on July 21.
Aliyev shows no signs of letting things slide, however. Baku has sent a firm and consistent message: Moscow must shed its imperial attitude, if relations are to return to an even keel.
“The position of Azerbaijan remains firm, pragmatic and focused on the priority of national interests without concessions under pressure,” noted a commentary published by the Baku news outlet Caliber, which is widely seen as closely connected to the Aliyev regime. “Dialogue is possible, but not under dictation, but with a focus on honest partnership.”
The same commentary also emphasized that Baku is far from feeling intimidated by Russian saber-rattling. It taunted the Kremlin for its social media attacks and emphasized that Azerbaijan is ready to defend itself militarily.
“The campaign in Russian social media is a symptom of declining influence, where intimidation replaces diplomacy,” the Caliber commentary stated. “If verbal aggression on social networks turns into a direct military provocation, the consequences will be very serious. Escalation — from incidents on the border to a full-scale conflict — risks involving Turkey as an ally of Baku and even wider global players, considering Azerbaijan's energy role.”
[END]
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[1] Url:
https://eurasianet.org/while-russia-barks-azerbaijan-shows-no-fear-of-moscows-bite
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