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Quick Hits #8: A roundup of recent developments in the Caucasus and Central Asia [1]

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Date: 2025-07

Leading off…

The leaders of Armeniaand Azerbaijan had a face-to-face meeting in Abu Dhabi on July 10. No breakthroughs were reported in efforts to get a peace deal signed. At the same time, statements issued by the Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministries affirmed that a strictly bilateral framework best suited the peace process. “It was confirmed that bilateral negotiations are the most effective format for discussing all issues related to the normalization process, and on this basis, it was decided to continue such a result-oriented dialogue,” the Armenia statement noted. This format effectively freezes Russia out of the peace process, and likely sidelines Moscow from any peacekeeping role after a treaty is signed. Reportedly, one of the agenda items discussed during the talks was an idea to create a variation of the Zangezur Corridor by outsourcing its management to a third party, potentially a US company. The idea was reportedly pitched by the Trump administration. The Armenian side confirmed it, and is apparently not opposed to it (with certain conditions). Azerbaijan has insisted on a corridor connecting the Azerbaijani mainland with the Nakhchivan exclave. Until now, Armenia has resisted the corridor concept, unwilling to give Azerbaijan extraterritorial rights, or have Russia act as a security guarantor.

In case you missed it from the Caucasus…

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is doubling down on a campaign to quash his domestic opponents. Claiming to have uncovered a wide-ranging coup conspiracy, the government moved quickly to detain Russian-Armenian oligarch Samvel Karapetyan, as well as several top clerics in the Armenian Apostolic Church. Of late, Pashinyan has authorized a wave of arrests of opposition political figures on accusations of suspected anti-government activities. Many of those caught up in the most recent round of arrests are affiliated with the nationalist Dashnaktsutyun Party (also known as the Armenian Revolutionary Federation), which has ties to former president Robert Kocharyan. Meanwhile, after the parliament passed legislation allowing to nationalize an electric company run by Karapetyan, prosecutors are seeking to confiscate some of the billionaire’s other assets, as well as assets tied to arrested opposition MP Artur Sarkisyan.

Azerbaijan has rebuffed a Russian olive branch seeking to reset relations. Bilateral ties went into a deep freeze over several incidents, including Russia’s refusal to take responsibility for the accidental downing of an Azerbaijani civilian jetliner and the more recent deaths of two Azerbaijani nationals in Russian police custody. Russia’s emergency situations minister, Alexander Kurenkov, traveled to Baku hoping to engage top Azerbaijani leaders, but the trip did not go well. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev refused to meet him, according to a well-connected Russian Telegram channel. “The Russian side was made to understand that there would be no informal dialogue, and Alexander Kurenkov was forced to cut short his visit,” according to the Telegram version. When it became evident that Baku wasn’t ready to move on, Russian authorities ordered the deportation of an Azeri diaspora leader.

Meanwhile, across the Caspian...

Kazakhstan may soon get a new US ambassador after an almost-six-month vacancy. The Trump administration on July 9 nominated Julie Stufft to fill the Astana post. The nomination now goes to the US Senate for confirmation. A career foreign service officer, Stufft previously served as Deputy Assistant Secretary for Visa Services in the Bureau of Consular Affairs, and as Deputy Chief of Mission in the US Embassy in Moldova. Daniel Rosenblum, the previous US envoy to Kazakhstan, retired in January.

The United States has imposed new visa restrictions on Kyrgyzstan. Citizens of the Central Asian state seeking to visit the United States will no longer be able to obtain multi-entry visas, only single-entry. In addition, non-immigrant visas issued to Kyrgyz citizens will be good for only three months, not up to 10 years. “The visa adjudication process must ensure that US-bound foreign travelers do not pose a threat to the national security and public safety of the United States,” noted a US Embassy in Kyrgyzstan statement, posted on Twitter (now called X). “Reduced nonimmigrant visa validity increases our ability to detect and prevent abuse of our immigration system.” The statement added that the restrictions are subject to “review and revision” at any time.

There is some confusion in Tajikistan about whether Afghan refugees will be subject to forced deportation. Afghan media outlets reported July 9 that the Tajik government had issued an order for the estimated 13,000 Afghan refugees residing in the Central Asian state to return home. RFE/RL’s Tajik Service could not confirm that Tajik officials had issued such an order, but cited Afghan refugees as saying they had received SMS messages telling them if they did not leave within 15 days they would be subject to forced deportation proceedings. A July 10 report published by the Asia-Plus news agency cited the leader of the Afghan Refugee Committee in Dushanbe, Musavvir Bahaduri, as saying the rumors of a deportation order appear “unfounded,” adding that no refugee had approached the committee for assistance concerning deportation-related matters.

Officials in Uzbekistan are strongly objecting to a UN agency ruling that the arrest and detention of Gulnara Karimova, daughter of former president Islam Karimov, was unlawful and arbitrary. A lengthy report documenting Karimova’s supposedly unfair treatment was published in June by the UN’s Human Rights Council Working Group on Arbitrary Detention. The document noted that Uzbek officials were given an opportunity to comment on the report but did not file a response by the deadline set by the agency. It also indicated that reparations to Karimova were warranted. On July 9, Uzbek officials posted a response vigorously defending the legality of their actions. “All criminal cases against Karimova were initiated and considered in strict compliance with criminal and criminal-procedural legal norms, as well as taking into account the international obligations of the country, including the provisions of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights,” the Uzbek response claimed, adding that Tashkent “categorically rejects claims about the existence of political reasons in this case.” Karimova was placed under house arrest in 2014, a time when her father still was the unquestioned leader of the country. She was transferred to a prison in 2019, but reportedly has enjoyed preferential treatment behind bars. Rights watchdogs routinely rated her father’s regime as among the most arbitrary and repressive on earth, and for a while, she was considered as a potential successor. It is somewhat ironic, then, that she now stands to benefit from the rule of law.

And another thing…

Georgian Dream is relying on reverse mojo to parry criticism of its policies by the European Union. Ten EU states, joined by the United Kingdom, on July 11 issued a statement condemning the Georgian government’s authoritarian practices. “The course of political repression carried out by the Georgian authorities has led, in reaction, to a considerable downgrading of our relationship,” the statement notes, adding that EU member states “will continue to call out Georgian authorities’ undemocratic actions and violations of human rights and will not hesitate to make use of the range of unilateral and multilateral tools available to us should Georgian authorities continue to take steps that erode Georgia’s democracy and respect for human rights.” Georgian Dream’s response came on July 13, dodging and denying any failings in democratic practices. Instead, the response letter accused the accusers of the very same authoritarian practices that they were calling out Tbilisi for. Georgian Dream officials characterized the EU statement as “another rude and unfair attack … saturated with misinformation.” The response repeated unsubstantiated claims that US and European entities, including the US Agency for International Development, the National Endowment for Democracy and the European Endowment for Democracy, financed groups and individuals involved in a plot to overthrow the Georgian Dream government. It also accused many EU states and the UK of being ruled by a “Deep State.”

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[1] Url: https://eurasianet.org/quick-hits-8-a-roundup-of-recent-developments-in-the-caucasus-and-central-asia

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