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Quick Hits #7: A roundup of recent developments in the Caucasus and Central Asia [1]

['Paul Bartlett', 'Joanna Lillis', 'Luka Linich', 'Irakli Machaidze']

Date: 2025-07

Kazakhstan has formalized a consortium with Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan to export ‘green energy’ to Europe via a trans-Caspian power line. In the meantime, OPEC is not pleased with Kazakhstan for routinely exceeding its oil production quota. (Photo: gov.kz)

Leading off…

Russia has become the first state to recognize the Taliban government in Afghanistan, almost four years after the radical Islamic movement returned to power in Kabul. A Russian Foreign Ministry official on July 3 formally accepted the credentials of a Taliban envoy to Moscow, signaling Kremlin recognition. A Foreign Ministry statement justified the move, stating it “will give impetus to the development of productive bilateral cooperation between our countries in various fields.” Russia also has an interest in trying to stop the nearly half-century cycle of civil strife in Afghanistan that Moscow touched off with the Red Army’s 1979 invasion of the country. “We will continue to assist Kabul in strengthening regional security and combating the threats of terrorism and drug-related crime,” the Russian statement adds. Central Asian states, which have expanded engagement with the Taliban of late, may soon follow Moscow’s lead in establishing formal diplomatic relations with Kabul.

In case you missed it from the Caucasus…

Armenia is trying to make a geopolitical pivot westward, but that does not mean Yerevan is turning its back to the East. In an interview with the South China Morning Post, Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan said Yerevan wants to foster a “no limits” relationship with China. An Armenian Foreign Ministry statement posted on Telegram also noted Yerevan’s intent to apply for Shanghai Cooperation Organization membership, citing its standing policies of “territorial integrity, non-use of force, and inviolability of borders.”

Amid a spike in tension with Russia, the Armenian parliament has moved forward with an attainder bill-like procedure that will enable the nationalization of the electric company controlled by Russian-Armenian oligarch Samvel Karapetyan, who was taken into custody in June on suspicion of anti-state activity. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has indicated that Karapetyan was allegedly part of a wide-ranging conspiracy to topple his government. On July 3, authorities took two Karapetyan associates into custody, in connection with the case. Russia has protested Karapetyan’s detention.

Azerbaijan will keep two employees of the Russian broadcast entity Sputnik in investigative custody for at least four months. Dmitry Kiselev, the head of Sputnik, which is widely considered one of the Kremlin’s most effective propaganda outlets, assailed the arrests, calling them unjust. Azerbaijan cracked down on Sputnik’s operations in Baku following a late-June incident in Russia in which two Azerbaijani nationals died in official custody. The Azerbaijani branch of Kovcheg, a non-profit run by Russian emigres, claims that other Russian citizens in Azerbaijan have been targeted for harassment by police.

Georgia’s disputed president, Mikheil Kavelashvili, has hinted he would be willing to issue pardons to opposition party leaders currently jailed for refusing to testify before a government commission that they assert is a politically motivated sham. But there is a catch: to receive a pardon, the jailed opposition leaders must pledge to participate in local elections scheduled for the fall. Most opposition parties plan to boycott the vote, questioning its legitimacy while citing the ruling Georgian Dream party’s drastic departure from democratic norms in 2025. It seems Georgian Dream leaders are worried about the PR damage that a boycott could cause. So far, only one opposition entity, Lelo/Strong Georgia, has said it will participate in the local elections. Kavelashvili was installed as president in late 2024 by Georgia’s rump parliament, which is widely seen as a rubber-stamp vehicle for the ruling party. Opposition leader Salome Zourabichvili has maintained she remains Georgia’s legitimately elected head of state.

Meanwhile, across the Caspian...

OPEC is not pleased with Kazakhstan. The Central Asian state’s oil output matched an all-time high in June, exceeding its production quota under OPEC+ guidelines. Astana’s output was up 7.5 percent in June over May’s total. Kazakh officials have repeatedly faced pressure from OPEC+ for routinely exceeding production quotas. On July 5, however, OPEC+ agreed to increase production for August.

In Kyrgyzstan, at least 8,558 suspected cases of measles and rubella have been registered since the start of the year, according to Health Ministry data. The incidence rate is 112.8 per 100,000 people. According to World Health Organization statistics, Kyrgyzstan recorded the fourth highest total of measles cases during the November 2024-May 2025 period. Afghanistan was fifth and Russia 10th during the same timeframe.

Kyrgyz National University, one of the most prestigious institutions of higher learning in Kyrgyzstan, is embroiled in a scandal over phantom students who were on track to receive diplomas. A state security services investigation determined that over 60 “foreigners, officially enrolled in the university, were actually not in the territory of the Kyrgyz Republic and did not participate in the educational process.” Authorities have opened a criminal bribery investigation in connection with the suspected scam. Authorities identified the phantom students as Uzbek, Kazakh and Russian nationals.

The United States is ready to offer assistance and training to Tajikistan in the area of disaster response. Maj. Gen. James Ring, the head of the Virginia National Guard, discussed the parameters of cooperation in late June with Rajabli Rahmonali, the head of the country’s Emergency Situations committee, the Khovar news agency reported. The report cited Rahmonali as saying Tajikistan plans to host US-led disaster response trainings for Emergency Situations workers from all Central Asian countries. Meanwhile, US Air Force personnel, along with members of the Montana National Guard, participated in late June joint exercises with Kyrgyz troops.

Uzbekistan has formalized a consortium to export ‘green energy’ to Europe via a trans-Caspian power line. Uzbek officials, along with counterparts from Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, established a joint venture July 1 to oversee the venture, to be based in Baku. According to official Uzbek estimates, the trans-Caspian power line project could cost upwards of $2 billion.

And another thing…

Turkmenistan’s supreme leader, Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov, has long sought to bolster his cult of personality by demonstrating feats of prowess, whether it is horse or auto racing, pistol shooting and axe throwing or rapping. Now, Berdymukhamedov can add another notch to his accomplishment belt, that of Taekwondo master. South Korean officials, on a recent trade-related mission to Ashgabat, awarded the Turkmen strongman the rank of Taekwondo black belt, ninth dan, the martial art’s highest achievable skill level, the official Turkmen TDH news agency reported. There are only a few dozen individuals who hold the rank, which requires a lifetime of dedication, including both technical mastery and a deep understanding of Taekwondo philosophy. South Korean officials evidently believe the honor will help grease the wheels of South Korean-Turkmen trade.

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[1] Url: https://eurasianet.org/quick-hits-7-a-roundup-of-recent-developments-in-the-caucasus-and-central-asia

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