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The forecast calls for a warm peace for Armenia and Azerbaijan [1]

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Date: 2025-05

It has been reported that Azerbaijan has bought 40 JF-17 fighter jets produced by a Chinese-Pakistani consortium, but Baku has not confirmed the purchase. (Photo: Asuspine via Wikipedia)

It looks like Armenia and Azerbaijan are in for a very warm peace if they ever they get around to signing a treaty to end over three decades of armed conflict.

The peace treaty is ostensibly ready for signing, both sides say. But Baku has established preconditions that are problematic for Armenia, placing the pact in limbo.

Amid the continuing maneuvering over a peace deal, both sides seem intent on preparing for a potential, future fight. A report that Azerbaijan has purchased 40 JF-17 fighter jets produced by a Chinese-Pakistani consortium has set social media ablaze in Baku. Ahmad Shahidov, a Baku-based political analyst, described the purported deal as “a statement of brotherhood, trust, and a shared vision for the future [by Azerbaijan and Pakistan]… to make our skies stronger, safer, and better equipped.”

The Azerbaijani government has not confirmed the fighter purchases, said to be worth upwards of $4.2 billion. President Ilham Aliyev held a summit May 28 with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Pakistani Premier Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif during which he touted the three countries’ increasingly close strategic cooperation, while failing to mention a deal for fighter jets.

“We believe that, through joint projects and programs, cooperation between our countries in political and economic areas, energy, mutual investments, transport, defense, agriculture, information technologies, and other spheres will develop at an even greater pace,” was the closest Aliyev came to mentioning an arms deal in his summit speech.

The air superiority that Azerbaijan enjoyed during the Second Karabakh War, especially drones, played a key role in the Azerbaijani military’s reconquest of Nagorno-Karabakh. The Pakistani jet purchase, if confirmed, could give Baku a strategic advantage over Armenia for at least the medium term.

Meanwhile, Armenia is taking steps to keep pace with Baku. Armenia signed a “declaration of intentions” with France on May 26, providing for closer economic and, potentially, defense cooperation.

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[1] Url: https://eurasianet.org/the-forecast-calls-for-a-warm-peace-for-armenia-and-azerbaijan

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