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Quick Hits: A roundup of recent developments in the Caucasus and Central Asia [1]
['Alexander Thompson']
Date: 2025-05
Leading off…
Armenia: Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov traveled to Yerevan and pronounced himself satisfied that the visit worked out “misunderstandings and suspicions.” As a result, Moscow and Yerevan can now have “sincere” conversations on contentious policy issues, Lavrov indicated. A statement issued by the Armenian Foreign Ministry was somewhat more circumspect, noting that “negotiations were very informative and at the same time constructive, covering a wide range of issues.” It went on to state that both sides were interested in “continuous political dialogue … based on the interests and priorities of each of our countries.” Moscow has expressed displeasure of late with Armenia’s geopolitical engagement with the United States and European Union, as well as its expanding arms purchases from India.
In case you missed it from the Caucasus…
The Armenian army appears to be struggling to fill its ranks. One issue is that thousands of young men just under the draft age renounce their Armenian citizenship to avoid military service. Many also simply dodge the draft. Now the government is introducing a new system: if one wants to avoid serving in the army for the standard two years, a waiver is available for $62,000, requiring only one month of service. A four-month tour of duty will cost about $46,000. Those trying to renounce citizenship at a pre-draft age will now need to pay a fee of about $39,000. Under the new system, the maximum age of conscription is also rising from 27 to 32.
In Azerbaijan, the Anglo Asian Mining PLC has started production at its Gilar copper and gold mine. The company’s list of shareholders includes some recognizable American names, including members of the Sununu family, and Reza Vaziri, an American citizen and a top figure in the U.S.-Azerbaijan Chamber of Commerce. The company also expects to launch production at its Zafar, Kharkhar and Garadagha deposits in the not-so-distant future.
Azerbaijani-Russian diplomatic relations may be a bit chilly these days, but bilateral trade has grown by nearly 40 percent so far this year, according to Russian customs data cited by state-controlled media outlets.
Increasing the odds that an Armenian-Azerbaijani peace treaty won’t be signed soon, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has yet again publicly repeated Azerbaijan’s claim to “Western Azerbaijan.”
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio called out the Georgian Dream leadership in Tbilisi as an “anti-American government” during a congressional hearing on May 21. He said bilateral relations were being reevaluated and raised the possibility that the Trump administration will “take appropriate actions to impose costs on that government.” At the same hearing, Representative Joe Wilson, a Georgian Dream bête noire, lambasted Tbilisi for “selling out to the Chinese Communist Party.” The verbal barrage pushed top Georgian officials back on their heels. Georgian Dream Foreign Minister Maka Botchorishvili scrambled to contain the PR damage, telling local media that Wilson was disseminating “disinformation” and that despite the US House of Representatives’ overwhelming approval of the MEGOBARI Act and Rubio’s comments, “there is no definitive position on Georgia in the new US administration.”
Meanwhile, across the Caspian…
Russia placed 80,000 draft-dodging naturalized citizens hailing from Central Asian states on its military register of persons eligible for military service. About 20,000 Central Asians are already fighting for Russia, Alexander Bastrykin, the head of the Investigative Committee of Russia, indicated. Judging by the way he phrased his comments, Bastrykin’s 80,000 number does not include those who enlisted for military service on their own, and the 20,000 number does not include those who have already been killed in combat or otherwise have left military service.
Kazakhstan now ranks among the top three largest crude oil suppliers to Europe in 2024. Prior to its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia was by far the EU’s biggest supplier. But sanctions have put a hold on Russian oil, enabling Kazakhstan’s increase of supplies. Astana intends to further increase crude exports in 2025. If those targets are met, Kazakhstan may end the year as the EU’s second-largest supplier.
In Kyrgyzstan, a draft law banning pornography has cleared the first hearing in parliament. Meanwhile, an anti-war activist deported by the Kyrgyz authorities to Russia at the Kremlin’s request was sentenced to 16 years in prison.
Uzbekistan has formally applied to join the North-South Corridor Coalition, according to Vitaly Saveliev, a Russian deputy prime minister who is also the top Russian official in charge of overseeing the corridor’s operations. The North-South network facilitated transit in 2024 of 10 million tons of cargo by rail, 6 million by road, and another 8 million via a trans-Caspian route, Saveliev indicated. “We are convinced that once the entire infrastructure is completed, this route will become a real alternative to the Suez Canal," he was quoted as saying in a Telegram post.
In Tajikistan, 24 people have been arrested for allegedly wiring money to an exiled opposition member, Muhammadikbol Sadriddin, who is the founder of the “Isloh” new website. The outlet often publishes content that is critical of President Emomali Rahmon’s administration. All the arrests occurred in the Kulyab district of the Khatlon region. Sadriddin insists the money involved in the transfers did not go to his personal account, instead characterizing them as voluntary donations to keep the website operating.
Turkmenistan wants to increase the transit of its natural gas via Iran. No specific deals have been agreed upon, but Ashgabat keeps pushing for a deal. On a visit to Tehran, Turkmen Foreign Minister Rashid Meredov also expressed Ashgabat’s desire to increase electricity exports to the Gulf and other potential consumers via Iran.
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