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Looking at the implications of India’s rising profile in the South Caucasus [1]
['Alexander Thompson']
Date: 2025-05
Indian-made Akash-1S surface-to-air missile systems were reportedly among the weapons supplied by New Delhi to Yerevan. (Photo: gov.in)
India is boosting its support for Armenia, adding an additional factor to the already complicated security equation in the South Caucasus.
Armenia over the past five years has concluded deals worth roughly $1.5 billion to procure Indian arms, including anti-aircraft missiles, artillery systems, combat drones and munitions, Russian media outlets report. Over the same period, arms sales to Armenia by Russia, Yerevan’s erstwhile strategic ally, have largely dried up. France has cut an additional estimated $250 million-worth of arms deals with Yerevan, and geopolitically, Armenia has started to tilt towards the United States and European Union.
An analysis prepared by the Russian International Affairs Council underscored that Armenia’s shifting alignment, both in terms of arms purchases and political engagement, is a source of concern in Moscow.
“Several years ago, it was possible to boldly assert that Armenia is not only a special sphere of interest for Russia in the South Caucasus, but the key point for projecting the Russian presence in the region,” the report noted. “Today, [Russia’s] presence and influence are in doubt.”
“Armenia is striving for closer ties with non-regional players,” the report added. “This, in turn, further narrows the room for maneuver that Russia can use to restore its position in the South Caucasus.”
There is a practical component to Armenia’s recent arms purchases that increase the degree of difficulty for Russia. For example, the artillery systems that Armenia is obtaining fire 155-mm shells. Russian systems use 152-mm rounds.
India’s backing for Armenia is not limited to arms sales these days. New Delhi is weaponizing the tourist industry by discouraging Indians from visiting Azerbaijan and Turkey, Armenia’s arch-foes in the Caucasus. One popular Indian travel platform reported that in early May new bookings for travel to Azerbaijan and Turkey plummeted by 60 percent while cancellations of already-arranged travel more than doubled.
Indians accounted for a relatively small share of tourists who visited Azerbaijan in 2024 (8 percent), but the number of Indian tourists (224,000) more than doubled last year compared to 2023’s total.
Many regional analysts see India’s growing interest in Armenia as an outgrowth of its long-standing rivalry with Pakistan. New Delhi, some believe, wants to disrupt a strengthening trilateral bond among Azerbaijan, Pakistan and Turkey, and views its alignment with Armenia as a counterbalance.
But India also sees Armenia as a key cog in its efforts to develop trade routes operating outside of the emerging, Chinese-financed Belt & Road network. India’s budding economic rivalry with China is viewed as a secondary driver of New Delhi’s efforts to raise its profile in the South Caucasus.
“By deepening relations with Armenia, India strengthens its position as a major player across Eurasia and emphasizes the importance of the International North-South Transport Corridor, which aims to connect India with Europe through Armenia and Iran,” stated an analysis published by the Atlantic Council in early 2025.
Russia is not the only regional player upset by India’s entry into the geopolitical octagon that is the South Caucasus. A May 19 commentary published by the government-affiliated AzerMedia website in Baku cautioned that the Caucasus is at risk of becoming an “arena” for proxy fights waged by outside powers. Such concerns have been heightened by the recent four-day fight between India and Pakistan.
“The involvement of non-regional actors in the South Caucasus risks fragmenting the region’s security architecture,” the commentary stated. “The key question for regional states is whether to assert their sovereignty by balancing great powers or become instruments in their global conflicts. The choice is also between development through trade and logistics – or militarization.”
“As tensions rise between India and Pakistan, India’s military expansion into the South Caucasus raises the risk of war,” it added.
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