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Analysis: El Paso early voting turnout is older, more male than recent years [1]

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Date: 2024-11-03

More than 182,000 El Paso County residents cast early votes in this year’s general election, down from the turnout in 2020 but well ahead of the number of early votes in pre-pandemic presidential elections.

Just over than 20,000 El Pasoans cast in-person ballots in Friday’s last day of early voting, setting a new single-day record.

The previous record was just over 19,000 on the first day of early voting in the pandemic year of 2020, which had six extra days of early voting. (Among the early voters Friday was R&B star Khalid, who voted at the Enrique Moreno County Courthouse.)

The makeup of this year’s early voting turnout was older and slightly more male than in recent presidential elections.

Voting by age

Almost 31% of El Paso County early voters were age 65 or older, well above seniors’ percentage of votes in 2016 and 2020. Voters under age 30, who turned out in heavier-than-usual numbers in 2020, dropped back to their pre-pandemic proportion of voters.

The increasing dominance of older voters reflects an aging population that is a key demographic trend in El Paso County. El Paso’s median age has grown from 32.5 in 2020 to 33.9 in 2023.

More than half of El Paso County registered voters over age 65 cast ballots in early voting, by far the highest turnout of any age group. That is typical for El Paso elections.

Although the number of early voters was much higher in 2024 than in the last pre-pandemic presidential election in 2016, the number of registered voters has grown even more. That means that even among senior citizens, the percentage of registered voters casting early ballots is down from that year.

The sharpest decline in early voting turnout is among younger people, particularly those ages 30 to 44. That age range in 2024 roughly corresponds to what demographers call the millennial generation.

Only about 24% of millennial men who are registered to vote and 28% of registered millennial women cast early ballots.

Voting by sex

For decades, women have made up a majority of voters in El Paso County, and that’s continuing this year. But men are closing the cap, albeit modestly.

Almost 55% of early voters in El Paso County were women, down slightly from 2016 and 2020.

Men over 65 are most responsible for narrowing the turnout gender gap. Younger male voters have not significantly increased their percentage of voters.

A higher proportion of women registered voters cast ballots in early voting, a gap of almost 4 percentage points with registered men. But that gap is narrower than seen in early voting in the prior two presidential elections.

What do turnout trends mean for the election?

For the past three decades, the majority of votes cast in El Paso elections come during early voting. So most El Pasoans who are going to vote have already done so.

But Election Day on Tuesday is likely to draw a substantial turnout. More than 100,000 El Paso registered voters who cast ballots in 2020 have not yet voted this year. About 56% of them are women, and 79% are under age 65.

Ballots are secret, so we don’t know how individuals cast ballots. But the age and sex of voters can indicate likely election outcomes, especially in partisan races such as president.

Although county election records don’t provide data on race or ethnicity, data from the Census Bureau indicates that about four in five El Paso registered voters identify as Latino or Hispanic. The younger the registered voter, the higher the percentage identifying as Latino or Hispanic

Historically, Hispanic voters have voted for Democratic presidential candidates, usually by wide margins. But polling this year indicates that Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump is eroding the gap between him and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris, although Harris has a solid majority of Hispanic voters.

In his two previous times on the presidential ballot, Trump has drawn a lower percentage of the El Paso County vote than prior Republican nominees. In 2016, he received the lowest percentage of the vote of any major party presidential candidate in El Paso history. Trump improved his vote percentage in 2020, but he still was behind the percentages for previous GOP nominees Mitt Romney and John McCain.

No Republican presidential candidate has carried El Paso County since Richard Nixon in 1972. So it’s extraordinarily unlikely, especially given Trump’s prior poor performance, that Trump would defeat Harris in El Paso County. But he could improve his percentage of vote, depending on who casts ballots.

Hispanic men are more likely than women to support Trump this year, polling has shown. And older Hispanics are more likely to support the Republican nominee than their children and grandchildren.

With the El Paso early vote older and more male than in 2016 and 2020, Trump could improve over his prior performance in early voting – he won 26% of the early vote in 2016 and 30% in 2020.

A heavy turnout on Election Day – which would likely include a greater proportion of younger and women voters – could help Harris maintain the Democrats’ traditional El Paso edge in presidential races.

About 66,000 El Pasoans voted on Election Day in 2016, and just under 44,000 in 2020.

Rising turnout in the second week of early voting, and the number of people with a history of voting in presidential elections who haven’t yet cast a vote, could indicate that Election Day turnout will be significantly higher in El Paso than recent years.

Election Day: Vote at any voting site 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Tuesday, Nov. 5

The weather forecast for Tuesday calls for clear but relatively chilly conditions.

It’s less clear what the turnout so far tells us so far about other races on the ballot. Mayor and City Council races are nonpartisan, so traditional Republican and Democratic trends don’t provide much information on how people could vote this year.

In the partisan local races – for sheriff, district attorney and one county commissioner seat – the traditional Democratic strength seen in presidential races also applies.

Voter Guide: Everything you need to know for Nov. 5 election in El Paso

The last time an El Paso Republican won a countywide election was in 1982, when Ward Koehler was elected judge of the 168th District Court. Koehler is the only Republican to win a countywide judicial race in El Paso since the 19th century.

No El Paso Republican has won any partisan race since Andrew Haggerty was elected Northeast El Paso county commissioner in 2014. Republicans don’t have any candidates in most of the local partisan races this year.

The El Paso County Republican Party has very little infrastructure, and national and statewide Republicans have not made the voter turnout investments in El Paso that they’ve made in other heavily Hispanic areas like the Rio Grande Valley.

District Attorney Bill Hicks was appointed to the post by fellow Republican Gov. Greg Abbott in 2022, and is being challenged by Democrat James Montoya. Hicks likely has higher name recognition than other recent local Republican candidates, but he will need a lot of traditional Democratic voters to abandon previous habits to defeat Montoya.

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[1] Url: https://elpasomatters.org/2024/11/03/el-paso-nov-5-2024-election-early-voting-turnout-analysis/

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