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In the Race for the Presidency, GOP Turnout Declined, Democratic Turnout Collapsed [1]

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Date: 2024-11-08

Donald Trump won the popular vote and the presidency by getting nearly as many votes this year as he did in 2020, while Democratic turnout – especially in major cities – collapsed, a Daily Yonder analysis of preliminary election returns shows.

Kamala Harris got 12 million fewer votes than Joe Biden did in 2020, a decline of 15%, according to a preliminary analysis of 46 states. Trump, meanwhile, lost only 1 million votes, compared to his 2020 returns, a decline of less than 2%.

The result is that Trump gained a net of 11 million votes against his Democratic opponent compared to how he performed in 2020, giving him more than twice what he needed to win the preliminary national popular vote this year.

Harris lost votes across the board, but her biggest decline was in the nation’s largest cities. She got 9 million fewer votes in the cities and suburbs of major metropolitan areas (which have populations of 1 million or more). That’s a decline of 18% compared to 2020.

Harris also lost votes compared to Biden’s 2020 tally in rural areas, small cities, and medium-sized cities.

Trump kept his returns much closer to his 2020 levels, and he actually added slightly to his turnout in two types of counties.

In the suburbs of major metropolitan areas, Trump got 137,000 more votes in 2024 than he did in 2020. Meanwhile, Harris got 3.5 million fewer votes than Biden did in those counties. The result is that Harris lost these major-city suburbs by 2.4 points, a major turnaround from 2020 when Biden won this group of voters by nearly 6 points, in the 46 states that are part of this study.

In rural counties, Trump added 134,000 votes to his 2020 tally, while Harris dropped nearly 600,000 votes compared to Biden. The difference expanded Trump’s rural margin of victory from 34 points in 2020 to about 36 points in 2024, in the states that are part of the analysis.

Methodology

This analysis is based on preliminary results from the Atlas of the U.S. Presidential Elections, downloaded November 8, 2024. It does not include results for Maine, Massachusetts, Mississippi, or certain counties in Illinois.

The Daily Yonder uses the Office of Management and Budget 2013 Metropolitan Statistical Areas as the basis of our county categories. Major metropolitan areas have populations of over 1 million. Medium sized metropolitan areas have populations of 250,000 to under 1 million. Small metropolitan areas have populations under 250,000. This analysis defines rural as “nonmetropolitan,” meaning counties that are not part of a Metropolitan Statistical Area.

Related

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[1] Url: https://dailyyonder.com/in-the-race-for-the-presidency-gop-turnout-declined-democratic-turnout-collapsed/2024/11/08/

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