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Like Rest of Nation, Battleground States Swung Right, Especially in Large Metros [1]
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Date: 2024-11-20
Donald Trump's electoral sweep of the seven battleground states was built on the same political shifts that gave him his first-ever popular-vote victory nationally, a Daily Yonder analysis shows.
Trump improved his margins across all of the Daily Yonder's county geographic categories (from the largest cities to the most rural locations), compared to 2020, when he lost to Democrat Joe Biden.
The biggest Republican swings from 2020 to 2024 occurred in the largest cities of four of the seven battleground states: Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.
In Wisconsin and North Carolina, Trump was able to take a bigger share of the increased overall turnout in cities, towns, and rural areas.
And in Georgia, Trump won the battle for turnout in suburban Atlanta, plus smaller cities and rural areas.
Across the seven swing states, more than half of Trump's improved vote count came from major metropolitan areas, while about 20% of his improvement came from rural counties.
Trump did better in 90% of the swing-state rural counties compared to 2020; 72% of metropolitan counties shifted toward Trump.
(County categories: Major metropolitan areas have populations of 1 million and up. Medium-sized metros have 250,000 to under 1 million residents. Small metros have under 250,000 residents. And nonmetropolitan areas, which this article uses to designate rural, are not located in a metropolitan area, as defined by the Office of Management and Budget in 2013.)
Here’s a roundup of how all of the seven swing states shifted compared to the 2020 election.
Arizona
Trump won 11 of Arizona’s 15 counties in 2024, from the suburbs of Phoenix and Tucson, all the way to the state’s rural areas, improving on his 2020 margin by almost 3 percentage points.
Trump fought Harris to a tie in the major cities of Phoenix and Tucson, where Biden won by 5 points four years ago. Trump improved on his 2020 turnout by 34,500 votes, while Harris got 100,000 fewer votes than Biden.
In the rest of metropolitan Arizona, Trump won by large margins, improving on his 2020 margins by several points.
In rural (nonmetropolitan) counties, Trump improved his margin by nearly 11 points.
Rural voters make up about 5% of the Arizona electorate.
North Carolina
In contrast to the national trend, turnout for Harris in North Carolina didn’t collapse in the major metro counties. Support for Harris in Mecklenburg and Wake counties, where the cities of Charlotte and Raleigh are located, grew slightly compared to support for Biden in 2020.
But Trump still gained ground in these major cities by doing even better than Harris in attracting new voters. Trump earned an extra 11 votes for every 1 that Harris gained compared to 2020. Harris won the core counties of Charlotte and Raleigh by a 30-point margin, but that’s 2 points worse than Biden’s margin. The bottom line was a net loss of 15,000 votes compared to Biden in 2020.
In the suburbs of Charlotte and Raleigh, Trump received almost 26,000 more votes compared to 2020, while Harris received 19,000 more votes than Biden, giving Trump a net gain of 7,000 votes compared to 2020. Trump won these suburbs with 63% of the vote, about the same percentage he received in 2020.
In the core counties North Carolina’s mid-sized cities, or counties with metropolitan populations between 250,000 and 1 million, support for Harris dropped by 9,400 votes compared to Biden, while support for Trump grew by more than 30,000.
In the suburbs of those medium-sized cities, Trump gained a net of about 15,000 votes compared to Biden-Trump in 2020. Trump won these suburbs by a 26 percentage point margin, about the same as 2020.
Small metros also swung toward Trump in North Carolina; he received 56% of the vote share in 2024, up from 54% of the vote share in 2020, improving on his net margin of 2020 by about 35,000 votes.
In North Carolina’s rural (nonmetro) counties, Trump received 28,200 more votes in 2024 than he did in 2020, while Harris received 17,300 fewer votes than Biden did, for a net gain for Trump of about 35,000 votes. Trump won these counties by securing 63% of the votes, up from 61% in 2020. Rural voters made up about a quarter of Trump’s North Carolina voters in 2024.
Nevada
In Clark County, home to Las Vegas and Nevada’s only major metropolitan center, support for Harris decreased by 8,000 votes compared to Biden’s turnout in 2020, while support for Trump increased by 55,000 votes compared to his 2020 numbers, giving Trump a net gain of 63,000 votes compared to 2020, a 7-point change in the margin.
The same trend occurred in medium-sized cities. Trump lost these counties in 2020 but pulled within half a point this year, increasing his turnout by 5,500 while Democratic turnout dropped by about the same amount.
Overall turnout remained virtually unchanged in the suburbs of Nevada’s medium-sized cities and the small metro counties, meanwhile. Trump won 70% and 56% of the vote share in these counties, respectively.
In rural (nonmetropolitan) counties, turnout for Trump increased by about 5,000 votes compared to 2020. Trump won these counties by securing 73% of the rural vote. Rural Trump voters make up about 15% of his voting base in Nevada. Two thirds of Trump’s voters came from Los Vegas.
Michigan
In Wayne and Kent counties, Michigan’s major metro areas of Detroit and Grand Rapids, support for Trump increased by 31,200 compared to his 2020 numbers while support for Harris plummeted by 56,000 votes compared to Biden in 2020. Trump received 38% of the vote in these cities, up from 35% in 2020.
In the suburbs of Detroit and Grand Rapids, Harris won 46% of the vote share, down from Biden’s 48% in 2020. But overall turnout for Harris dropped by almost 18,000 votes compared to Biden. Meanwhile Trump improved his 2020 turnout by 52,000 votes. Less significant changes occurred in the medium-sized cities and their suburbs.
Here, Trump improved on his 2020 turnout while Harris decreased slightly compared to Biden. Trump won these counties by receiving about 56% of the votes.
In Michigan’s rural counties, overall turnout increased compared to 2020. Harris received 5,400 more votes compared to Biden while Trump improved on his 2020 turnout by almost 39,000 votes, for a net gain against Harris of about 34,000. He won Michigan’s rural areas by a 28 percentage point margin. In rural Michigan, Trump supporters make up about 24% of Trump supporters statewide.
Wisconsin
In Wisconsin’s major metros, Harris received about 7,400 fewer votes than Biden did in 2020. Trump also saw a slight drop in voter turnout in Wisconsin’s major metros, receiving 2,300 fewer votes than he did in 2020, giving Trump a net gain of about 5,000 votes compared to 2020.
In the major metro suburbs, Trump secured 12,500 more votes than he did in 2020, while Harris secured 8,400 more votes than Biden, giving Trump a net gain of about 4,000 compared to Harris. Trump won these suburbs by 20 percentage points in 2024. In Wisconsin’s medium-sized cities, Trump received 9,900 more votes in 2024 than he did in 2020, while Harris received 16,200 more votes than Biden, giving Harris one of her few net gains compared to Biden's 2020 performance.
Harris won these counties by securing 68% of the vote.
In the suburbs of medium-sized cities, turnout for Harris remained close to Biden’s turnout in 2020, while turnout for Trump increased by almost 5,000 votes. Trump won 55% of the vote share in these suburbs.
In small metro counties, Trump improved on his 2020 turnout by securing 20,300 more votes, while Harris improved on Biden’s turnout by securing 4,600 more votes. Trump ultimately won these counties by an 8 percentage point margin.
As we previously reported, rural counties were key to Trump’s victory in Wisconsin. Trump improved on his 2020 turnout by securing 33,400 more rural votes, giving him 61% of the rural vote. Rural voters make up about 31% of Trump’s base in Wisconsin, the largest share of Trump’s vote compared to other swing states.
Pennsylvania
Trump improved on his 2020 turnout across the board in Pennsylvania. The majority of this gain occurred in major metros of Pittsburgh and Philadelphia and their suburbs, as we reported the day after the election. But Harris still won these counties by securing about 70% of the vote share.
In Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, Trump gained 8,800 more votes compared to his 2020 turnout, while Harris lost 44,600 votes compared to Biden. In the suburbs of these cities, Trump gained 52,600 votes compared to 2020, while Harris lost 21,800 votes compared to Biden’s 2020 turnout. Trump lost by about three percentage points here, a much slimmer margin than the major metros.
In medium-sized cities, Trump won 31,100 more votes than he did in 2020, while Harris lost 8,900 compared to Biden’s turnout. Trump received 56% of the vote share in medium-sized cities.
Turnout for Trump improved by 15,300 votes in the suburbs of these cities, meanwhile. Harris improved on Biden’s turnout by about 600 votes. Trump won about 55% of the vote in medium-sized cities.
Small metros saw an increase of 16,400 votes for Trump compared to 2020, while support for Harris increased by 2,600 compared to Biden’s 2020 turnout. Trump received about 64% of the vote share.
In rural counties, turnout for Trump improved by 19,100 votes while turnout for Harris dropped by 660 compared to Biden. Trump won about 73% of the rural vote, which comprises about 15% of Trump’s base in Pennsylvania.
Georgia
Turnout for both Trump and Harris increased statewide in Georgia. But the largest gains for Trump happened in Atlanta and the surrounding suburbs, where half of Trump’s Georgia voters live.
In Atlanta, Harris increased turnout by 4,500 votes compared to Biden, while Trump improved on his 2020 turnout by 7,400 votes. Harris won Fulton County by obtaining 73% of the vote, the same as Biden in 2020.
Trump gained the most ground in Atlanta’s suburbs, improving on his 2020 votes by 75,400 votes. Harris, who earned 52,000 more votes compared to Biden in 2020, still won the suburbs of Atlanta by securing about 54% of the vote share, but her net performance compared to 2020 was 23,000 votes worse.
In Georgia’s medium-sized cities, Trump, who received about 38% of the vote share, increased his turnout over 2020 by 18,300 votes. Harris, meanwhile, improved on Biden’s turnout by 2,000 votes. That gave Trump a net gain of 16,000 votes in these counties compared to 2020.
Trump received the majority of the vote share in all other types of counties - medium-sized suburbs, small cities, and nonmetro counties; here, Trump received 70%, 60%, and 72% of the vote share, respectively.
In nonmetropolitan counties, Trump improved on his 2020 turnout by 56,000 votes. Rural voters make up about 23% of Trump’s supporters in Georgia.
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https://dailyyonder.com/like-rest-of-nation-battleground-states-swing-right/2024/11/20/
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