(C) Daily Yonder - Keep it Rural
This story was originally published by Daily Yonder - Keep it Rural and is unaltered.
. . . . . . . . . .
A Guide to the Rural Vote: The Places and Races to Watch on Tuesday [1]
['Nicholas F. Jacobs', 'Robin A. Johnson', 'The Daily Yonder', '.Wp-Block-Co-Authors-Plus-Coauthors.Is-Layout-Flow', 'Class', 'Wp-Block-Co-Authors-Plus', 'Display Inline', '.Wp-Block-Co-Authors-Plus-Avatar', 'Where Img', 'Height Auto Max-Width']
Date: 2024-11-04
When the presidential results start rolling in on November 5, the usual battlegrounds will get all the attention. But the real story of the night will be hidden in rural communities across America. These aren’t just dots on the map—they’re bellwethers for how rural America will shape the outcome of the election for presidential, Senatorial, House, and state legislative elections.
We don’t know who’s going to win on Election Night, but we are pretty sure about one thing: Pundits are going to get rural voters wrong.
Expect to see red splashed across vast areas on TV maps, with “expert” commentary about this or that “rural” county—many of which don’t meet the definition. And when the post-mortems arrive, lackluster margins in supposedly rural states will have Democrats second-guessing their investment in rural America, all while missing key districts where rural voters delivered pivotal wins.
We’re here to help. We’ll break down the districts that actually matter and look at the counties and districts that could swing the election, helping you focus on the factors that could genuinely swing the election and shape the future of rural communities, nationwide.
Top of the Ticket: Counties to Watch on Election Night
There’s two types of rural counties – classified throughout as non-metropolitan according to the 2023 RUCC (Rural Urban Continuum Code) designation — that matter for the Harris-Trump contest: those that reversed course in the 2020 over 2016 (the flippers) and those that continued the decades long trend in Republican dominance in rural areas.
The Flippers:
Kennebec County, Maine: One of only 19 rural counties to have voted for Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020, Trump actually improved his overall support from 2016 to 48% while still losing the county. If he does worse than his 2020 numbers, expect similar desertions throughout the rural Northeast.
Door County, Wisconsin. A rural county that was a part of Trump’s surprise win in 2016, Biden locked down rural voters here in 2020 and brought the whole state with him. The Harris-Walz campaign has made these marginal victories in the Midwest key; if Trump over-performs his 2020 margins (48.5%) it could be a tough night for Democrats in rural Wisconsin.
Inyo County, California. Among the rural counties that flipped, voters in East-Central California, home to Death Valley, flipped the most. In just four years, Trump’s margins were cut by 3 percent and voters broke for the Democrat in 2020– the first time since 1964.
Teton County, Idaho: Idaho won’t flip in 2024, but voters in this Eastern part of Idaho have proven to be exceptionally independent, voting for Obama in 2008, Romney in 2012, Trump in 2016, and Biden in 2020. If they swing back again, that could have broader implications beyond the presidential race, hinting at deeper shifts in rural voter alignment, even in a deeply red state.
The Long-Termers
Elections have proven remarkably volatile the last eight years, but the transformation of rural partisanship has been decades in the making. Will 2024 be an inflection point or a continuation of Democrat losses? We’d look to these counties for answers.
Jackson County, Tennessee: Democrats aren’t going to win Tennessee anytime soon, and part of that is because rural communities across the rural South have deserted the party in droves. Since 2000 when the county broke for Gore, Democrats have suffered a 49 point drop in support. It went for Obama in 2008, but few rural counties have changed as much as this one…named after Andrew Jackson, a Democrat, to boot.
Mingo County, West Virginia: Like Jackson County, Democrats are 47 points under where they were in 2000. One of the worst performing rural counties for Democrats, if Harris stops the bleeding it might signal some important signs for the recovery of two-party competition in this deeply red part of the country.
Mower County, Minnesota: Part of Tim Walz’s old congressional district, this was a Democratic stronghold for over 40 years, but broke for Trump in 2016 (a 16-point swing over Obama!). Biden performed better, but still lost the county 52-46. We might see if Walz can do any better.
Greene County, Pennsylvania: Despite predictions, it hasn’t been the case that for every voter lost in Western Pennsylvania, Democrats will get two in the suburbs – so don’t neglect trends in the far southwestern corner of the state. Just 20 years ago, Republicans and Democrats ran neck-and-neck. Trump carried it by 40 points in 2016 and 43 points in 2020. If margins close here, they might close throughout rural Pennsylvania.
Lake County, Michigan: Another county that voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012 only to turn to the GOP in 2016. Unlike many areas in rural Michigan though, Trump added to his tally in 2020 over 2016. If he does so again, things might look like a 2016 redux across the Great Lakes region.
Looking past “Rural States” to Understand Senate Races
With Joe Manchin’s seat virtually conceded to the Republicans, the battle for the Senate will come down to a handful of races in states where rural votes will be decisive.
Montana: All eyes will be on Montana to see if Jon Tester can keep his seat in a state where rural votes comprise about 45% of the statewide total. Tester has done comparatively well in rural counties in his previous two campaigns — 47.3% of the two-party rural vote in 2012 and 45.7% in 2018, both well ahead of Biden. Can he maintain that share in rural counties with Trump on the ballot? If he does, Tester could pull off a big surprise.
Ohio: Rural votes could also be decisive in Ohio as Sherrod Brown tries to stave off a strong challenge in a state that has turned deep red in the Trump era. Brown received 38.8% of the rural, two-party votes in his last election, which outperformed Tim Ryan’s Senate try in 2022 against JD Vance and Biden’s 26.7% in 2020. But Trump’s presence on the top of the ticket might draw out more Republican voters or remind them what is at stake in control of the Senate.
Wisconsin: Tammy Baldwin has enjoyed strong performances in rural Wisconsin in her two Senate campaigns, gaining 49.4% in 2012 and 48.6% in 2018. (If Russell Feingold in 2016 or Mandela Barnes in 2022 had done as well in rural Wisconsin as Baldwin, either could have defeated Ron Johnson) Baldwin also ran about 10 points better than Biden. With the polls tightening in this race, another strong showing in rural counties, which comprise about one-quarter of the state’s electorate, can assure her of a third term.
Michigan: This state features an open seat, and rural counties comprise about 17% of the statewide vote. Debbie Stabenow gained 41.2% of the rural vote in 2018 but Gary Peters fell to 37.2% with Trump on the top of the ticket in 2020. Both outpolled Biden’s 2020 performance of 35.8%. Elissa Slotkin can’t afford a bigger falloff in rural counties and hope to keep the seat in Democratic hands.
Nebraska: Independent candidate Dan Osborn is running a surprisingly competitive race against incumbent Republican Senator Deb Fischer. Polls show Osborn holding a narrow lead, driven by his strong appeals to rural voters, who are frustrated with the current political establishment and who feel ignored by Washington. While a win might not tilt the balance of Senate control, an Osborn victory goes to show that rural politics is so much more than a cult of Trump. Rural communities are not monolithic in their support for the GOP but are seeking representation that genuinely reflects their interests and frustrations with the status quo.
Control of the House
Many of the races both parties are targeting for control of the House of Representatives feature significant shares of rural voters. In fact, rural voters could well determine which party controls the U.S. House. Key races will also show if any new ways of attracting rural votes have succeeded for the Democrats or if Republicans will maintain a hold on rural America.
Maine 2: Democrat Jared Golden represents a district where 63.8% of the votes in his narrow 2022 victory over Austin Theriault came from rural counties. It will be interesting to see if Blue Dog Golden can hang on to this seat with Trump on the ballot.
Colorado 3: Adam Frisch narrowly lost to Lauren Boebert in this district two years ago and is back this time to face Republican Jeff Hurd after Boebert relocated to another district. In Colorado 3, 57.5% of the votes in 2022 came from rural counties.
New York 19: In another 2022 rematch, incumbent Republican Marc Molinaro will face off again against Democrat Josh Riley. Molinaro won by fewer than 5,000 votes in this district where 48% of the votes are in rural counties.
North Carolina 1: Incumbent Don Davis is trying to hold this seat for the Democrats in a district where nearly one-half of the vote last election was rural. Many of the counties in this district have higher shares of African American voters which will help his chances.
Iowa 1: This 2022 rematch pits incumbent Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks against Christina Bohannan. Miller-Meeks won by 7 points in 2022 when 40.3% of the votes were from rural counties.
New Mexico 3: Gabe Vasquez is the incumbent Democrat in this district where 37.3% of the votes were rural last election. Some of the rural counties in this district have higher percentages of Hispanics and Native Americans where he did very well two years ago.
Of course, these aren’t the only races worth watching. Across the country, crucial battles are unfolding on state ballots, from gubernatorial contests, state referenda, to down-ballot races for state legislatures and local offices. There too, rural voters will be pivotal, if given the chance. Over 38% of all state legislative races are uncontested, many of those in rural America where Democrats haven’t even found a candidate to place on the ballot. But take note of Wisconsin where in a surprise turn of events, Democrats have placed a candidate for every single state Senate contest and all but two of the 99 ballots for state assembly. Whether these rural contests will flip the script or reinforce existing divides it’s a reminder that every race should be fought, because real competition strengthens democracy, holds politicians accountable, and ensures rural voters have the representation they deserve.
So this Election Night, let’s keep the focus on the places that matter: the districts where rural votes will truly decide the outcome and who might give us glimpses into a different political future for rural communities. Instead of fixating on where Democrats fall short, we should be looking at the places where rural voters are exercising their clear-minded independence and where candidates are working to restore two-party competition. These are the contests that will tell us more about the future of American politics than the losses.
Nicholas F. Jacobs is an assistant professor of government at Colby College and the co-author, with Daniel M. Shea, of The Rural Voter: The Politics of Place and the Disuniting of America.
Robin A. Johnson is an adjunct professor of political science at Monmouth College and host of the radio program and podcast “Heartland Politics.”
Related
Republish This Story Republish our articles for free, online or in print, under a Creative Commons license.
[END]
---
[1] Url:
https://dailyyonder.com/a-guide-to-the-rural-vote-the-places-and-races-to-watch-on-tuesday/2024/11/04/
Published and (C) by Daily Yonder - Keep it Rural
Content appears here under this condition or license: Creative Commons CC BY-ND 4.0 International.
via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds:
gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailyyonder/
