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Study: Small Changes in the Rural Vote Could Decide Swing States in 2024 [1]
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Date: 2024-10-28 09:59:00+00:00
A research brief from the University of New Hampshire’s Carsey School of Public Policy shows that it’s mathematically possible for small changes in the choices of swing-state rural voters to affect who wins the 2024 presidential election.
The brief says if Vice President Kamala Harris performs as little as 3% better with rural voters compared to Biden’s performance in 2020, she could receive more than 50% of the two-party vote in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
On the other hand, a 3% drop with rural voters for Harris compared to Biden in 2020 could give Trump the advantage in six of seven swing states.
For the purposes of the study, the researchers assumed that the margins in urban areas remained constant from 2020. The theoretical exercise shows how important even relatively small groups of voters are likely to be in the 2024 election.
In close elections, as the 2024 race is predicted to be, rural Americans aren’t the only bloc of voters who could help pick the winner. When state margins are within 100,000 votes, as they were in five states in 2020, candidates must carefully woo many blocs of voters to put together a winning coalition. That’s why we see election analysis of so many demographic groups, such as Black, Latino, Asian American and white female voters.
Using voting data from swing states over the past four presidential election cycles, UNH researchers looked at how modest changes in the percentage of rural votes cast for the Democratic nominee could sway the election this time around. Comparing potential rural support for Harris in swing states in 2024 to the rural support received by Biden in swing states in 2020 showed how a narrow percentage point difference could yield distinct election results.
In 2020, President Joe Biden received 49.6% of all votes in the seven swing states in the brief. This time around, if Harris performs just 3% better with rural voters, she would hold a 50.1% lead in swing states. Conversely, if she performs 3% worse with rural voters compared to Biden’s 2020 performance, her overall vote percentage would fall below the majority to 49.1% in swing states.
Historical vote for the Democratic presidential candidate in various types of metropolitan and nonmetropolitan (rural) counties. (Graph from the Carsey School of Public Policy)
Kenneth Johnson, senior demographer at the Carsey School of Public Policy and co-author of the brief, told the Daily Yonder that the 3% figure came from customary fluctuation in the rural vote during the past two presidential election cycles.
“If you look at what happened between 2016 and 2020, in some places, the loss of rural votes [for Trump] was in the 3%, 2-3% range,” Johnson said.
In 2016, Hillary Clinton received 33.9% of the rural vote share in swing states, Johnson said. Four years later, Biden won more support and increased his share to 35.1% of rural voters in swing states. As a whole, rural support for the past two Democratic presidential candidates increased by just 1.2% between the Clinton and Biden campaigns in key states. In tight races, such a small margin can be the difference between victory and defeat.
Polls project the same could be true this year for Harris and Trump. As the two battle it out in swing states where rural voters range from 5% of the population in Arizona to to 26% in Wisconsin, polls show the candidates virtually tied in some swing states, including Wisconsin.
Dante Scala, co-author of the brief, told the Daily Yonder that he is wary of the thin margins between the candidates projected in the polls.
“The margin of error is there, and I think we all tend to forget about it because we’re just so inoculated right now with the idea that it’s razor tight,” Scala said.
Margin of error quantifies the uncertainty that arises in randomized public opinion polls. Sampling error also is a factor in the accuracy of scientific polls, which cannot possibly gather opinions from an entire population at one time.
In swing states, Scala said the turnout of “low frequency” rural voters – those who rarely vote in midterm elections but do cast ballots in presidential cycles – could influence the election. Scala said these types of voters will be especially important to watch in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were both among the states where Johnson and Scala showed that a 3% boost in rural support for Harris over Biden’s 2020 levels would guarantee a majority for Harris, holding all else constant. In Michigan, where 50.6% of votes were cast for Biden in 2020, a 3% boost for Harris would give her a 51.1% majority.
Out on the campaign trail, Harris and Trump continue to vie for support in the final stretch before election day – now just a week away. Scala said that trail is unlikely to include many rural places as the candidates focus instead on hitting major media markets in metro and suburban areas.
“Rural voters might wind up being overlooked once again to a considerable extent,” Scala said.
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https://dailyyonder.com/study-small-changes-in-the-rural-vote-could-decide-swing-states-in-2024/2024/10/28/
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